California, reeling from the catastrophic wildfires that destroyed communities and killed 30 individuals six months in the past, remains to be ready on a $40 billion request for federal catastrophe reduction. South Carolina, additionally nonetheless reeling from September’s Hurricane Helene devastation that left 50 individuals lifeless, obtained federal catastrophe help final yr.
Nonetheless, it’s not possible to disregard the huge elephant — or relatively donkey — within the room, the 2028 of all of it.
The Palmetto State has earned a moniker, ‘First in the South,’ primarily based on a constant document for selecting candidates in main elections who ultimately go on to develop into presidential nominees for each the Democratic and Republican events.
In 2024, nationwide Democrats moved the South Carolina main to the highest spot. And whereas it’s not but set the place it’ll land on the 2028 calendar, South Carolina remains to be anticipated to be an early state, if not first once more.
However no matter the place it falls on the first calendar, there’s no overstating how outstanding a task South Carolina voters, significantly Black voters, play in Democratic presidential politics.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom shakes palms with attendees at Fisher Hill Group Baptist Church on July 8, 2025 in Cheraw, South Carolina. The governor is on a two-day tour of rural counties in South Carolina, hosted by the state Democratic Celebration. (Picture by Sean Rayford/Getty Pictures)
Since 1988, when South Carolina started holding presidential primaries, the winner of the Democratic main has solely didn’t clinch the social gathering’s nomination two instances: John Edwards in 2004 and Jesse Jackson in 1988, each of whom have been born in South Carolina. Final yr, South Carolina Democratic main voters picked President Joe Biden earlier than he dropped out of the reelection race.
“California is going to go Democratic in the presidential election, but South Carolina is often make or break for who becomes the Democratic nominee,” mentioned Scott Huffmon, who teaches American politics and voting habits at Winthrop College in Rock Hill, South Carolina.
“The road to the White House,” he mentioned, “leads through South Carolina.”
‘Heads Carolina, Tails California’
He inspired Democrats to face as much as Trump’s insurance policies and didn’t draw back from speaking about his dwelling state.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks to a crowd, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Pickens, S.C. (AP Picture/Meg Kinnard)
California, in spite of everything, generates extra financial output per particular person, contributes extra in federal taxes and ranks higher (or much better) than nationwide averages for murder, weight problems, most cancers deaths and academic attainment, amongst different issues.
“But I think if you talk to Democrats, I don’t think that perception is the same,” Garvin mentioned. “As a lawmaker, I look to California for many of the progressive policies that are being implemented there as a template of what can be done in South Carolina.”
“Of course, there are going to be conservatives who say we don’t want to do things the way California does, but there are some actually good things happening in California that the rest of the nation can follow.”
Supporters of President Donald Trump protest an look by California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Seneca, S.C. (AP Picture/Meg Kinnard)
Nonetheless, South Carolina — because it lengthy has been for Democratic presidential hopefuls, official or not — has lengthy been a testing floor for candidates’ messaging.
“The only way to do that is to connect with rural voters,” Hollington mentioned.
“You’ve got to get out of your posh areas and into the heartbeat of America.”
“I think it’s smart to meet people and campaign, and there’s no better way than to meet (voters) face-to-face. Good for him for coming to South Carolina,” mentioned Rep. Neal Collins, a Republican who represents Greenville and Pickens counties within the Upstate.
“In the general, we’re maybe not as important,” mentioned Collins, noting South Carolina has a Republican supermajority and is extraordinarily more likely to go for the Republican candidate within the normal presidential election.
“But we’re immensely important for the primary.”
‘Gone to Carolina’
In Might, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee) and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore headlined occasions in Columbia, the capital metropolis.
“I would be interested to see who else is going to journey to South Carolina,” mentioned Chase Meyer, who teaches American politics and elections on the College of South Carolina.
“How you run for president, a lot of it is determined by who else is running and how they’re running their campaigns,” Meyer added.
Take 2020, for instance. That yr, Meyer mentioned, many Democratic presidential hopefuls took extra left-wing positions, an try and woo supporters away from progressive Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. The shift, he mentioned, left room for extra reasonable candidates, like then-South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and eventual nominee and president Joe Biden, to seek out success.
“Is that going to play well with Democratic voters? It depends on what everyone else does. If every other candidate says, ‘No, that’s horrible, I’d never talk to Steve Bannon,’ there might be an opening for such a candidate,” he mentioned.
For Democrats, South Carolina is the place to check whether or not a candidate has nationwide attraction. The state is extremely numerous, and native voters will help champion a candidate in different southern states, together with potential swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.
A file image dated Jan. 21, 2008, exhibits New York Senator Hillary Clinton (L) and Illinois Senator Barack Obama (R) checking notes throughout a break within the CNN/Congressional Black Caucus democratic social gathering presidential debate on the Palace Theatre in Myrtle Seashore, South Carolina. (EPA/MATT CAMPBELL)
If historical past supplies any classes that may be key within the subsequent presidential election cycle, it’s the 2008 Democratic main the place Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton clashed in South Carolina. Their battle solely underscored how necessary Black voters, significantly Black girls, are within the Democratic main.
“Black women voters in South Carolina are very smart, and they know their power. They’re going to spot a fake appeal a mile away,” mentioned Huffmon, saying the final candidate to court docket Black girls voters organically was Obama.
Whereas the previous secretary of state’s technique for successful over girls was to deploy her husband, former President Invoice Clinton, he ended up placing his foot in his mouth, mentioned Huffmon. Invoice Clinton, who was nicknamed the “first Black president,” was perceived as offended throughout the main marketing campaign in South Carolina, and known as Obama’s opposition to the Iraq Battle “the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.”
“But the Obama folks had the beauty parlor campaign. They’d call up Black beauty parlors and say, ‘Can I come and talk about this candidate who’s running?’ It’s tough to catch lightning in a bottle like that again, but you do need to find a way to appeal to African American voters, especially African American women, in a legitimate way.”
Democrats in South Carolina, mentioned Garvin, the state consultant, are in search of a pacesetter.
“What Democrats need most right now is somebody who is willing to fight and can take the message of why being a Democrat — and what we stand for — is a positive thing,” mentioned Garvin, who has not but endorsed anybody for 2028.
“Democrats are at a point where we must decide who we are as a party, and what we believe,” Garvin mentioned. “I think that we have got to do a better job of explaining to people why it’s cool to be a Democrat and why what we believe can be transformational to their lives and to our future.”
Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) (L) will get a response after intimating that California Gov. Gavin Newsom (C, left) is campaigning for president on the Kershaw County Heart on July 8, 2025 in Camden, South Carolina. The governor is on the primary of a two-day tour of rural counties in South Carolina, hosted by the state Democratic Celebration. (Picture by Sean Rayford/Getty Pictures)
Initially Printed: July 11, 2025 at 9:59 AM PDT
