HOUSTON — If the Warriors need to win the franchise’s fifth championship of the Steph Curry period, they may have to take action with out home-court benefit of their first-round sequence towards Houston that begins Sunday and possibly some other matchup alongside the best way.
That isn’t the top of the world, in response to Golden State coach Steve Kerr, who lately mentioned that having home-court benefit doesn’t present the higher hand prefer it as soon as did.
“The 3-point shooting is such a variable, and it feels like in the old days, it was much more of a grind-it-out, 2-point game,” Kerr mentioned. “It just didn’t feel like the opponent had as much of a chance to suddenly get hot and take over the momentum of the game.”
The seventh-seeded Warriors (48-34) entered the postseason fourth in 3-point makes (15.4) per recreation, and the No. 2 seed Rockets (52-30) twenty first at 12.7.
Having a roster stuffed with playoff-tested veterans equivalent to Draymond Inexperienced and Jimmy Butler has additionally been touted by the staff in latest weeks.
None of Golden State’s skilled core goes to be phased by raucous street atmospheres. Particularly in Houston, the place Curry, Inexperienced and veteran huge man Kevon Looney confronted the James Harden-led Rockets 4 instances in 5 seasons between 2015 and 2019 – and received all of them, together with a seventh recreation in Houston.
“We understand the environment, even just being in the city, how to spend time during a two-game-in-five-day stretch,” mentioned Curry, whereas noting that the remainder of the staff was not round for these playoff battles.
Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr talks with Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry (30) after their 124-119 win over the Memphis Grizzlies for his or her NBA play-in event recreation on the Chase Middle in San Francisco, Calif., on Tuesday, April 15, 2025. (Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Space Information Group)
However are upsets, just like the one Golden State seeks to tug off, actually extra prevalent within the fashionable NBA?
And the way a lot does 3-point taking pictures actually have an effect on the end result?
The numbers paint a sophisticated image.
From 2005 to 2024, there have been 160 first-round playoff sequence. Of these, the decrease seed has received 34 instances.
However regardless of what Kerr mentioned, upsets haven’t turn into extra prevalent with the fast enhance in 3-point taking pictures.
Twenty of these upsets occurred earlier than 2015, the season that Kerr took over the Warriors, Golden State received its first title in a long time and the NBA’s 3-point revolution started in earnest.
Whereas the staff that made extra 3-pointers accounted for 19 sequence wins, of the six most-recent upsets over the previous two years, solely two of these groups made extra threes than its opponent.
Golden State was a type of two in 2023, when Curry went to Sacramento and scored 50 in Sport 7 whereas making seven 3-pointers himself within the first-round upset.
The Warriors’ veteran expertise, not less than on paper, can be not an amazing benefit.
Although bench gamers would possibly skew averages, the staff with an older common age accounted for simply 12 of the 34 upsets.
Nevertheless, Golden State has good purpose to imagine it doesn’t want home-court benefit to win towards the younger Rockets.
In the course of the groups’ epic seven-game sequence within the 2018 convention finals, Houston was the highest seed.
The Rockets proceeded to infamously brick 27 straight 3-pointers, whereas Kevin Durant scored a game-high 34, to propel Golden State to a 101-92 victory in Sport 7 of the Western Convention finals.
James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets goes up towards Kevon Looney #5 and Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors within the first quarter of Sport Seven of the Western Convention Finals of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at Toyota Middle on Could 28, 2018 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: Consumer expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or utilizing this {photograph}, Consumer is consenting to the phrases and situations of the Getty Photos License Settlement. (Photograph by Bob Levey/Getty Photos)
And in 2022, the eventual champion Warriors earned the No. 3 seed and knocked off second-seeded Memphis within the second spherical.
As soon as they reached the championship spherical, Curry’s Warriors received twice in Boston – together with the sequence clincher in Sport 6 – to seize the franchise’s fifth title.
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“It always helps to have home-court advantage, and that’s why we fight so hard for it,” Looney mentioned. “But with our experience, we know we can win on the road, and we know we can win at home, so we’re not scared to go into somebody else’s place and try to get a win.”
The Warriors even have Butler, who twice (2020 and 2023) led Miami to first-round upsets en path to surprising runs to the NBA Finals.
And earlier than Kerr arrived, Curry’s postseason coming-out get together in 2013 occurred when he lit up the Nuggets to assist the sixth-seeded Warriors win in six video games, and the “We Believe” Warriors in 2007 captivated the NBA world by beautiful the top-seeded Dallas Mavericks 4-2.
So whereas upsets haven’t turn into as frequent as long-distance taking pictures, there’s nonetheless loads of purpose to imagine the Warriors have a terrific shot at turning into simply the third No. 7 seed to tug off a first-round upset prior to now 20 years.
