Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up an important polling developments or knowledge factors you should find out about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Day by day Kos reporting, plus a vibe verify on a development that’s driving politics.
“They are wrong. There is nothing to sustain that.”
That’s what former President Joe Biden mentioned throughout an look on “The View” in early Could, denying widespread experiences that he suffered stark cognitive decline throughout his ultimate years in workplace. However People simply aren’t shopping for it.
New knowledge from YouGov finds that People imagine not solely that Biden’s well being and age restricted his skill to hold out presidential duties but additionally that Democrats hid his well being data from the general public. And these points lower to the guts of a present drawback going through the Democratic Occasion: How can it regain credibility with voters—together with many Democrats—who simply don’t belief the celebration proper now?
Simply 6% of People suppose Biden’s age and well being had no impact in anyway on his skill to hold out presidential duties, in line with a brand new ballot YouGov performed for The Economist. Eighty-six p.c of People suppose his skill to be president was at the very least considerably restricted by his age and well being, together with 58% who suppose he was “severely limited” by it.
“The Democratic Party at large didn’t buy into it,” Biden additionally claimed on “The View,” pointing to his victory within the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries, which have been primarily uncontested.
However even earlier than his disastrous June 2024 debate with Donald Trump, which culminated with the sitting president exiting the presidential race, Biden’s age and well being fearful Democrats.
In a February 2024 ballot from YouGov, solely 21% of Democrats mentioned his well being and age wouldn’t restrict his skill to hold out presidential duties. The next share (24%) mentioned he could be “severely limited.” And in a New York Instances/Siena School ballot fielded that very same month, 56% of Democrats and 59% of voters who backed Biden within the 2020 election mentioned Biden was too previous to be an efficient president.
Different polls from earlier than the controversy present related numbers. Actually, in a YouGov ballot from July 2022—two years earlier than he dropped out of the 2024 race—solely about 1 in 4 Democrats mentioned Biden’s well being and age had no impact on his skill to be president.
President Donald Trump
And the numbers have solely gotten worse for Biden. The newest YouGov/Economist ballot finds that solely 12% of Democrats suppose his age and well being had no impact in any respect on his skill to be president, and 1 in 3 Democrats suppose his well being and age severely restricted him.
The problem has all the time been there for Democrats. And past that, Democrats aren’t the one individuals who vote in elections. The overwhelming majority of registered voters (73%) in February 2024 thought Biden was too previous to be an efficient president, in line with the New York Instances/Siena School ballot.
Why does this matter when Trump, a conspicuously deranged man, is the sitting president? Let’s be clear: Trump’s age and cognitive well being are completely the extra vital story proper now. And People are fearful about it. In one other new YouGov ballot, simply 31% of People suppose Trump’s age and well being haven’t any impression in any respect on his skill to be president. One other 29% thinks these issues “severely limit” him, and that features a majority of Democrats (58%) and a plurality of independents (29%).
Nonetheless, the subject of Biden’s well being and the way Democrats dealt with it aren’t simply problems with the previous. Additionally they threaten how the general public views the Democratic Occasion at massive.
Most People (57%) suppose that Democrats hid details about Biden’s well being from the general public whereas he was president, in line with the newest YouGov/Economist ballot. That features not just one in 4 Democrats but additionally greater than 1 in 2 independents.
In fact, if there was a cover-up, it clearly wasn’t an excellent one. Simply take a look at these pre-debate polls.
Both approach, a large portion of the voters the Democratic Occasion depends on to win elections simply watched celebration officers spend years claiming that Biden was as sharp as ever and capable of tackle one other presidential marketing campaign, within the face of robust proof in any other case, all whereas they themselves have been fearful about it. Is it actually a shock the celebration now faces such horrible favorability scores?
Solely 38% of People have a positive view of the Democratic Occasion, whereas 60% have an unfavorable view, in line with the Pew Analysis Middle. That places the celebration 22 proportion factors underwater, in contrast with the Republican Occasion, which is 13 factors underwater. Nonetheless, extra tellingly, simply 75% of Democrats have a positive view of their very own celebration—the bottom share Pew has discovered previously six years.
Speaking via what occurred with Biden—what the celebration ignored, what it bought improper—is an effective approach for Democrats to regain credibility within the eyes of voters, to allow them to know that they’re achieved protecting their ears, and that they need to pay attention once more.
Any updates?
The “big, beautiful” tax invoice that Home Republicans handed just lately would intestine meals help for low-income People, and that’s bought even some Republicans vocally pissed. However a brand new knowledge mannequin from Information for Progress finds simply how unpopular it’s: In each Home district within the nation, lower than 15% of voters assist cuts to the Supplemental Vitamin Help Program.
The Trump administration is narrowing entry to COVID-19 boosters—a lot for conservatives making an attempt to assert the slogan “my body, my choice”—however lots of People won’t discover. Seventy p.c of People haven’t gotten a COVID-19 vaccine previously yr, in line with a brand new YouGov/Economist ballot. And solely 33% need to get a booster if one is accepted this fall.
In late April, Canada’s Liberal Occasion received an electoral victory everybody had anticipated them to lose handily—that’s, till Trump returned to the White Home and promptly began attacking the nation. And Liberals’ pushback to Trump appears to have helped them: 68% of Canadians who voted within the election mentioned Trump performed a task of their vote, in line with a newly launched YouGov survey. Eleven p.c mentioned he was their prime concern when voting, and one other 21% mentioned he was a significant concern.
Vibe verify
Nonetheless a lot voters got here to doubt Biden’s skill to hold out his presidential duties, they nonetheless gave him a a lot greater job approval ranking than they at the moment give Trump.
In response to Civiqs, 46% of registered voters accepted and 48% disapproved of how Biden was dealing with his presidency as of Could 29, 2021, making for a web approval ranking of -2 proportion factors. In the meantime, on Could 29 of this yr, 43% approve and 54% disapprove of Trump—a web approval ranking of -11.
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