Are Republicans already dropping by the wayside in California? It positive appears to be like that method.
A number of polls present most California voters again Proposition 50, the poll measure that will pause the state’s impartial redistricting fee and let lawmakers redraw congressional maps. If these numbers maintain, it may hand Democrats a decisive win.
“Redistricting fight” by Mike Luckovich
No on Prop 50–Defend Voters First, an anti–Prop 50 group funded by GOP donor Charles Munger Jr., has spent $20.1 million to this point. However with lower than a month to go earlier than the Nov. 4 election, the group isn’t airing any TV adverts this week, in keeping with AdImpact knowledge cited by Punchbowl.
An allied group, No on Prop 50–Cease Sacramento’s Energy Seize, led by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has spent a complete of just below $7 million. It slashed advert spending from $4 million final week to lower than $2 million this week.
Privately, many Republicans admit they’re bracing for defeat. Polling backs that up. A co/environment friendly survey discovered 54% of California voters assist Prop 50, whereas 36% oppose it.
One other ballot performed for The Cook dinner Political Report by TrueDot.ai discovered 47% assist and 34% opposition. Amongst registered voters, assist ticks as much as 50%.
In that second ballot, performed from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, simply over half of voters mentioned they have been locked in—32% undoubtedly voting sure and 19% undoubtedly voting no. The remaining have been leaning or undecided, which means either side nonetheless have some room to maneuver. However with Republicans pulling again, the momentum is tilting towards “yes.”
There’s a transparent motive the GOP is retreating. Democrats are outspending them and have efficiently nationalized the battle. Professional-Prop 50 adverts characteristic California Sen. Alex Padilla recounting being tackled by federal brokers and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warning that President Donald Trump is threatening “the well-being of our communities,” as footage of ICE raids rolls.
In the meantime, GOP fundraising has lagged. Republicans in Washington are privately pissed off that McCarthy pledged to lift $100 million for the trouble however has spent lower than $7 million on adverts.
The McCarthy-aligned group insists it’s not giving up fully. It mentioned in an announcement to Punchbowl that it’s “continuing to invest the necessary resources to run a data-driven campaign” that may attain key voters with what’s left.
“No amount of campaign cash, clever spin, or all-caps posts can hide the truth: Prop 50 strips power from the people and hands it to greedy politicians at great taxpayer expense while pretending it’s for democracy,” adviser Ellie Hockenbury mentioned.
Some Home Republicans are nonetheless writing checks. For instance, Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan contributed $300,000. In the meantime, California Reps. Ken Calvert and Doug LaMalfa—who would each be drawn into deep-blue districts underneath the proposed map—have additionally donated. LaMalfa gave $250,000.
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It’s laborious to overstate what’s on the road. If Prop 50 passes, Democrats may successfully blunt Texas’s new congressional map heading into the 2026 midterms.
After Trump kicked off a nationwide redistricting offensive, GOP-led states like Florida and Indiana have weighed mid-decade remaps, and Missouri already handed a plan flipping a Democratic seat.
That push is choosing up steam. In line with new reporting on Wednesday, Indiana may very well be subsequent. Vice President JD Vance is reportedly anticipated to go to the state on Friday to rally Senate Republicans behind redrawing its congressional map.
As Republicans press ahead, Democratic governors in Illinois, Maryland, and New York are weighing their very own counterpunch.
All of it factors to at least one factor: the battle for the Home may hinge on what California does subsequent.
