The Pac-12 dissolved 13 months in the past, however one vestige of the previous convention stays related to the faculty soccer season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup.
The legacy groups are tied to the identical postseason association that existed previous to collapse, albeit with one essential change. As a substitute of utilizing convention report to determine the pecking order, general report is the determinant.
Every week, the Hotline will mission and assess the postseason standing for all 12 groups.
Six wins has been the edge for bowl eligibility for eons, however tremendous conferences have existed for simply two seasons. The place these forces intersect, a essential dynamic lies: convention schedule rotations.
The trail into the postseason relies upon as a lot on which groups are off the schedule in a given yr as which groups are on it.
Within the Massive Ten and ACC, every crew misses eight of the others.
Within the SEC, there are seven misses.
Within the Massive 12, six.
Mix the schedule rotations with the bowl math and the teaching scorching seats, and three particular conditions pique our curiosity throughout the assortment of Pac-12 legacy groups.
Cal’s Justin Wilcox has an more and more heat seat, with normal supervisor Ron Rivera stating just lately that he believed eight or 9 wins would represent a profitable season.
The Bears haven’t received eight general since 2019 and haven’t received eight within the common season since 2009.
However look right here: The Bears (2-0) are favored at dwelling this week in opposition to Minnesota, then go to struggling San Diego State. It’s affordable to examine a 4-0 report when ACC play begins. After which? Cal doesn’t play No. 5 Miami, No. 10 Florida State or No. 12 Clemson.
That is perhaps suboptimal for ticket-selling functions, however it’s past advantageous for a crew — and coach — in want of eight wins.
Or think about Arizona, the place Brent Brennan is below strain to succeed in the postseason after his abysmal first yr. The schedule is indisputably favorable: The Wildcats (2-0) don’t play No. 20 Utah, No. 21 Texas Tech or TCU, which is unranked however seems like a possible contender.
Had Brennan himself constructed essentially the most favorable schedule doable for 12 months 2, it could bear greater than a faint resemblance to the official model.
And in case you’re questioning in regards to the third coach with vital seat warmth — that may be USC’s Lincoln Riley — the Massive Ten did him a stable. Two solids, truly.
The Trojans don’t play No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Penn State.
Riley, Brennan and Wilcox are dealing with various quantities of strain and have totally different thresholds for fulfillment. However all three stand to learn tremendously from the convention schedules — particularly, from the opponents they received’t face.
To the bowl projections …
School Soccer Playoff
Group: Utah (Massive 12 champion)
Remark: There’s loads of competitors for the Massive 12 title, with Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona State and TCU as candidates for the throne. And since it’s the Massive 12, a minimum of one crew will make an sudden cost. So our confidence stage with this choice is not any higher than modest till extra outcomes roll in.
School Soccer Playoff
Group: Oregon (Massive Ten at-large)
Remark: By automated bid or at-large berth, the Geese are one of many most secure CFP picks within the nation for the time being. And talking of the schedule misses, they don’t play Ohio State or No. 9 Illinois. Nevertheless, the schedule has loads of former Massive Ten West groups (Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern), which is at all times a superb factor for enhancing win totals.
Alamo Bowl
Group: USC
Remark: Admittedly, we’re vulnerable to being overly nuanced with this evaluation. However in some methods, the Trojans are higher positioned for a CFP run by means of the Massive Ten, as a result of convention report performs a task — they usually miss the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions — than they’re positioned for a top-tier Pac-12 bowl, the place general report dictates all the pieces they usually must play Notre Dame. And if that evaluation makes completely no sense, apologies.
Las Vegas Bowl
Group: Washington
Remark: The hardest video games (Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon) are at dwelling, the place the Huskies haven’t misplaced because the 2021 Apple Cup. The chance of that 22-game dwelling successful streak being intact on the finish of November is simply this aspect of zero.
Vacation Bowl
Group: Arizona State
Remark: In distinction to Arizona, which avoids most of the Massive 12’s finest groups, the Solar Devils play Utah, Texas Tech, Iowa State and TCU. With that schedule and a non-conference loss already on their books, 9 wins looks like an affordable ceiling.
Solar Bowl
Group: Cal
Remark: The Bears have been enjoying faculty soccer because the Eighteen Eighties. The Solar Bowl has existed because the Thirties. And but, their paths have by no means crossed. It’s time.
LA Bowl
Group: Arizona
Remark: One week later, we’re fairly content material with having pronounced the Wildcats bowl-bound. They appear even higher, and lots of of their opponents look even worse.
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Non-qualifier
Group: Colorado
Remark: The schedule is tough, the questions are quite a few — that listing begins with CU’s quarterback controversy — and the bowl math is only a tad too sophisticated. Extra issues want to interrupt proper than we care to depend at this level.
Non-qualifier
Group: Oregon State
Remark: The Beavers have larger issues than dangerous bowl math. They need to decide, before later, if coach Trent Bray is able to main this system.
Non-qualifier
Group: Stanford
Remark: We’ve got a humorous feeling the non-qualifier standing will stay in place by means of the 2026 season and maybe by means of 2027, too.
Non-qualifier
Group: UCLA
Remark: Primarily based on how they’ve performed so far, the Bruins might be hard-pressed to win greater than 5 video games — and that’s assuming they seize one or two that no one expects. They are going to be favored in not more than three, by our depend.
Non-qualifier
Group: Washington State
Remark: The tough mid-season schedule, with three consecutive highway video games and back-to-back journeys throughout the nation (to Mississippi and Virginia), leaves the Cougars with a margin so skinny it’s not seen to the bare eye.
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