Alright guys, I’m simply going to confess it: We’re greater than midway by the season and I formally do not know what to make of the AFC.
Heading into Week 11, the Colts, Patriots and Broncos are all tied atop the convention with an 8-2 file, however I don’t belief any of them to make it to the Tremendous Bowl. I additionally don’t belief the Payments, who simply bought destroyed by the Dolphins. And let’s be actual, you may by no means belief the Chargers, so that they’re out. Somebody will finally win the AFC North, however I can’t belief any crew that comes out of that division.
After which there’s the Chiefs. I’m unsure if I belief the Chiefs but, however I ought to be capable of inform you in about two weeks as a result of their subsequent two video games are in opposition to the Broncos (Week 11) and Colts (Week 12). Principally, I do not know who’s going to win the AFC as a result of I don’t belief anybody, which implies it’s most likely going to be the Chiefs. Time is a flat circle.
After all, the Chiefs are going to have their arms full with the Broncos this week and in the event that they lose, I’m OUT ON THE CHIEFS. So who’s going to win that showdown? Let’s get to the picks and discover out.
NFL Week 11 Energy Rankings: Belichick who? Drake Maye’s rise to stardom has Patriots forward of schedule
Pete Prisco
Alright, let’s do that.
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NFL Week 11 picks
Washington (3-7) at Miami (3-7) in Madrid
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Community, Fubo — strive at no cost)
For the primary time ever, the NFL is taking part in a recreation in Spain. I’ve solely been to Spain as soon as and so they had been giving freely free pictures of Jagermeister on the airport once I bought there. And did I point out that they had been giving out these free pictures at 8 a.m.? As a result of it was 8 a.m.
Nothing beats a free shot of Jagermeister at 8 a.m. John Breech/CBS Sports activities
I feel my level right here is that it’s by no means a nasty concept to place a soccer recreation in a rustic that arms out free airport pictures at 8 a.m.
One participant who would possibly be capable of take a free airport shot of Jagermeister this week is Daron Payne and that’s as a result of he’ll have some free time to drink since he gained’t be taking part in. Payne bought hit with a one-game suspension for punching a Lions participant on Sunday. When you’re going to punch a participant, you positively shouldn’t do it the week earlier than a global recreation. As a result of suspension, Payne is now lacking out on a free journey to Spain.
With Payne out, meaning the Commanders might be down a starter and if there’s any protection within the NFL that may’t afford to be down a starter, it’s the Commanders. Everyone knows the Bengals protection is unhealthy, however the Commanders is perhaps worse.
They’ve given up the second-most passing yards per recreation (394.6)
They’ve given up the third-most complete yards per recreation (260.2)
They’ve given up the fourth-most factors per recreation (27.0)
And now, they should face a Dolphins crew that has out of the blue remembered the way to play soccer. The Dolphins have scored not less than 30 factors in two of their previous three video games and that’s as a result of their floor recreation has caught hearth. De’Von Achane nearly single-handedly carried the Dolphins to a win by working for 174 yards in Miami’s surprising 30-13 win over the Payments. When the Dolphins can run the ball, that takes loads of stress off of Tua Tagovailoa and when Tua doesn’t have to hold the offense, he appears to play higher.
On paper, the folks of Spain aren’t getting an excellent matchup, however there ought to be some fireworks on Sunday as a result of that is primarily an elimination recreation. The Dolphins have to win in the event that they wish to have any shot on the playoffs, and don’t snort, as a result of it’s not that loopy to say “Dolphins” and “playoffs” in the identical sentence. Their subsequent three video games are in opposition to the Commanders, Saints and Jets, so that they may very well be 6-7 heading into Week 15.
The Commanders have to win in the event that they wish to have any likelihood of getting Jayden Daniels again for video games that matter. In the event that they lose right here, they’ll be 3-8, and that may principally finish their season, as a result of even when they win out, a 9-8 crew most likely isn’t making the playoffs within the NFC.
With this decide, I feel I’m going to roll with the folks of Spain and the folks of Spain apparently love Dolphins…
I’m going to should take Miami right here.
PICK: Dolphins 34-24 over Commanders | Dolphins -2.5 | Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook
Cincinnati (3-6) at Pittsburgh (5-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Heading into Week 11, the AFC North race has slowly changed into the soccer equal of a Hallmark Channel Christmas film: I do not know why I’m taking note of it, however I’m, and I’ve now watched for thus lengthy that I’m totally dedicated to it so I’ve to maintain watching simply to see the way it ends. The distinction is that Hallmark Christmas motion pictures are inclined to have pleased endings, however I don’t see the AFC North having a contented ending for anybody.
One factor that makes the AFC North so entertaining is the existence of the Bengals. They’ve what is perhaps the worst protection within the historical past of soccer, but in some way, they’ve nonetheless managed to win three video games. In most divisions, in the event you’re 3-6, your followers have given up on you as a result of your season is over, however that’s not the case within the AFC North. If the Bengals can in some way pull off the upset right here, that may enhance their division file to 3-0 and it will transfer them to inside one recreation of first place. I repeat, the CINCINNATI BENGALS may very well be inside one recreation of first place in the event that they win on Sunday.
When you’ve got watched any Bengals recreation over the previous three weeks, you then already understand how this recreation goes to go:
There might be no protection performed
A number of factors might be scored
It gained’t be determined till the ultimate minute (and probably last seconds) of the fourth quarter
The Bengals have misplaced six of their previous seven, however the one win in that span got here in opposition to the Steelers. Again in Week 7, Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-31 win. Flacco had solely been on the crew for 9 days, however he nonetheless managed to cube up the Steelers. And don’t overlook, Mike Tomlin was MAD on the Browns for sending Flacco to Cincinnati. The rationale for that’s as a result of there isn’t any one who is aware of Tomlin’s protection higher than Flacco. He has 12 wins in opposition to the Steelers, which is tied with Tom Brady for essentially the most by any QB in NFL historical past in opposition to Pittsburgh.
As unhealthy because the Bengals protection has been this yr, the Steelers have arguably been worse and that’s principally as a result of nobody anticipated them to be unhealthy. Nobody thought the Bengals protection was going to be good this yr, so it’s not an enormous shock to see them battle, however it has been a shocker with the Steelers.
By way of 10 weeks, the Steelers have given up essentially the most passing yards per recreation within the NFL (269.4). To place that in perspective, the Bengals are solely giving up 260.1. Flacco has been coping with a shoulder harm, however the Bengals might be coming off a bye, so he simply had a full week to let the harm heal. He ought to be able to roll.
This looks like a recreation the place Flacco goes to go off once more, the one query is whether or not the Bengals protection will be capable of decelerate the Steelers in any respect.
The AFC North is the one division within the NFL the place not one of the groups have reached six wins but and I’ll say it stays that approach with the Bengals pulling off the upset and getting the season sweep of Pittsburgh.
With Joe Burrow now again at follow, the Bengals ought to be loads motivated to drag out a win in order that they’re nonetheless in rivalry for the division as soon as their star quarterback is able to return.
PICK: Bengals 34-31 over Steelers | Bengals +5.5 | Odds by way of BetMGM
Tampa Bay (6-3) at Buffalo (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I don’t assume I spotted how stacked the schedule was this week till I noticed that this recreation is at 1 p.m. ET. There are solely three video games in Week 11 that can characteristic two six-win groups and that is considered one of them. Which means you need to put the children to mattress and buckle up, as a result of it ought to be a wild Sunday. Really, I take that again, 1 p.m. ET might be too early to place the children to mattress, so possibly inform them to take a brief nap.
Anyway, if the Payments and Buccaneers get right into a pregame battle on Sunday, it’s most likely as a result of they’ll be arguing about who had the worst loss in Week 10. On one hand, we’ve the Payments, who bought embarrassed by the Dolphins in a 30-13 loss. You understand it was a nasty loss when the opposite crew’s coach takes a victory lap round a bar filled with your followers after the sport.
In Buffalo’s protection, this was a basic entice recreation. The Payments performed the Chiefs in Week 9 and so they have this recreation in Week 11, so there’s a 50% likelihood they didn’t even trouble game-planning for the Dolphins, who had been 2-7 going into the sport.
As for Buccaneers, they bought run off the sector by the Patriots in a 28-23 loss. And once I say they bought run off the sector, I imply that actually: The Patriots had two landing runs of not less than 55 yards. When you can run on the Buccaneers, you may beat them. The Bucs are 0-2 this season once they surrender 125 yards or extra on the bottom and 6-1 once they maintain their opponent beneath 125 yards.
The issue for the Bucs is that I don’t assume they’re going to have the ability to maintain the Payments to beneath 125 dashing yards. For one, the Payments have James Prepare dinner, who’s the second-leading rusher within the NFL with 920 yards, however you may’t deal with him, as a result of then Josh Allen will take over the sport. Talking of Allen, he has 311 dashing yards this season, which is the fourth-most of any quarterback. That signifies that Allen and Prepare dinner have mixed for 1,240 dashing yards this yr, which is a median of 137.8 yards per recreation. I’m not a math main, however I do know that that’s increased than 125. Benefit: Payments.
With their passing recreation struggling, I feel the Payments will go heavy on the bottom this week. The Buccaneers will doubtless hold this shut, however I simply can’t belief a Florida crew taking part in on the highway in a northeastern metropolis in November. Additionally, let’s not overlook that this recreation is being performed in Buffalo at 1 p.m. ET, which I’m solely stating as a result of the Payments NEVER lose in that window. For the reason that begin of the 2023 season, the Payments are 9-0 when taking part in a house recreation at 1 p.m. ET (together with the playoffs).
If the Payments can earn homefield benefit all through the playoffs and persuade the NFL to schedule each considered one of their postseason video games at 1` p.m. ET, they’ll be a lock to make the Tremendous Bowl.
PICK: Payments 30-23 over Buccaneers | Payments -5.5 | Odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook, the place new customers get 20 100% revenue boosts with the code CBS20X:
Seattle (7-2) at L.A. Rams (7-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — strive at no cost)
This recreation will characteristic two of the highest six favorites within the NFL MVP race with Matthew Stafford (second total favourite) dealing with off in opposition to Sam Darnold (sixth total favourite). Stafford ought to most likely be the favourite and that’s as a result of he’s doing issues that nobody else is doing: He’s thrown 4 landing passes with zero interceptions in three straight video games, which marks the primary time that’s ever occurred in NFL historical past.
Three months in the past, Stafford might barely get away from bed within the morning as a result of his again was so unhealthy, however now, he’s within the MVP dialog. If anybody ought to be within the MVP dialog, it’s Stafford’s again physician.
As for Darnold, he’s additionally been on a tear this yr. Over the previous two weeks, he’s thrown as many landing passes (5) as he has incompletions (5). The Seahawks passing recreation has been almost unstoppable this season: Darnold leads the NFL in yards per passing try at 9.9, which is an absurd quantity when you think about that no different QB is even above 9 yards per try. Additionally, Jaxson Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving yards.
When you’re going to cease the Seahawks passing assault, the simplest approach to try this is to sack Darnold and nobody is aware of how to try this higher than the Rams. Final season, Darnold additionally seemed like an MVP candidate whereas taking part in for the Vikings. Together with the playoffs, he went 14-4 with Minnesota, which broke down like this: He went 0-2 in opposition to the Rams and 14-2 in opposition to everybody else.
In these two losses to the Rams, Darnold bought sacked a complete of 12 occasions. Darnold is clearly in a very completely different scenario this yr, however he all the time appears to battle when’s beneath stress. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula could be very properly conscious of the way to gradual Darnold down and I gained’t be stunned if he dials up the stress.
After which you’ve the Seahawks protection. Mike Macdonald has labored wonders with the unit, however I’m unsure they’re going to have the ability to decelerate Stafford. The final time the Rams QB confronted a Macdonald protection got here in 2023 and he threw for 294 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. That’s about what I anticipate on Sunday.
PICK: Rams 27-24 over Seahawks | Rams -2.5 | Odds by way of FanDuel Sportsbook
Kansas Metropolis (5-4) at Denver (8-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
If you’re going to be wherever close to Denver on Sunday, then be sure that to get to Empower Discipline as a result of CBS might be broadcasting stay from Chiefs-Broncos. You understand it’s an enormous recreation once we’re sending our “The NFL Today” crew and that’s precisely what’s occurring right here.
Though I’m good at choosing the winner in Broncos’ video games, I nonetheless don’t belief them and that’s principally as a result of I’m nonetheless unsure how good they’re. That looks like a loopy factor to say about an 8-2 crew, however their eight wins have come in opposition to the Titans, Bengals, Eagles, Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Texans, Raiders. These eight groups have a mixed file of 23-48-1. The Eagles are the one crew on that checklist at present above .500 and the Broncos wanted a miracle fourth quarter comeback to beat them.
The large query with the Bronco is that this: Is their protection actually that good or has it been propped up by dealing with unhealthy groups? The Broncos have given up the third-fewest complete yards per recreation (270.7), the third-fewest factors per recreation (17.3) and so they have essentially the most sacks (46) within the NFL by 10 weeks. The Broncos have extra sacks than the Ravens, Jaguars and 49ers COMBINED.
The issue with main the league in sacks whenever you’re about to face the Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes nearly appears to take pleasure in getting sacked. By some means, he performs even higher when he will get sacked a couple of occasions. For the reason that begin of the 2024 season, Mahomes is 8-1 when he will get sacked three or extra occasions in a recreation. When he’s dealing with stress, that offers him an opportunity to make one thing out of nothing on a damaged play and as everyone knows at this level, nobody is best at making one thing out of nothing. There’s a cause his nickname is Homesdini. OK, I’ll admit it, I’m the one one who calls him that.
There’s a cause the Chiefs have gained 9 straight division titles and it’s as a result of they all the time appear to win video games like this. That is the fourth time in 5 years that the Chiefs have entered Week 11 with not less than two losses and each time that occurs, we begin to write them off, and each time we do this, they reply by occurring a run that finally ends up with them within the Tremendous Bowl.
If the Broncos win, I promise to begin trusting them, however I gained’t be choosing in opposition to the Chiefs in a must-win divisional showdown till somebody proves they’ll truly beat them.
PICK: Chiefs 27-23 over Broncos | Chiefs -3.5 | Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL Week 11 picks: All the remainder
Patriots 24-13 over JetsFalcons 24-17 over PanthersTexans 27-17 over TitansVikings 23-20 over BearsPackers 27-16 over GiantsChargers 31-24 over Jaguars49ers 19-16 over CardinalsRavens 23-20 over BrownsLions 30-20 over EaglesCowboys 34-27 over Raiders
BYES: Colts, Saints
Final Week
Greatest decide: Final week, I predicted that the Bears would win an in depth recreation with the Giants and that New York would most likely blow a double digit lead within the last minutes that may result in the firing of Brian Daboll and I NAILED IT. OK, I didn’t predict the firing of Daboll, however I most likely ought to have seen it coming, as a result of in relation to blowing late recreation leads, there was nobody higher at doing that than Daboll.
I’ve to say, I knew he was most likely toast after he tried to drag his quarterback out of the blue tent again in Week 6 so he might put him again within the recreation.
I’m unsure who the brand new Giants coach might be, however the lesson right here is don’t blow leads within the fourth quarter and don’t drag your QB out of the concussion tent if you wish to hold your job.
Worst decide: Each time I decide the Browns to win a recreation, I all the time assume that’s going to finish up being my worst decide of the week, and low and behold, right here we’re. With the Browns taking part in a Jets crew that had simply traded away their two greatest defensive gamers, I assumed for positive Cleveland would win in opposition to New York, however I used to be mistaken. The spectacular factor in regards to the Browns is that once they lose, they don’t simply lose, they go down in flames by shedding in a approach that no different NFL crew has ever misplaced by earlier than. This occurs recurrently.
The Browns didn’t flip the ball over and so they held the Jet to 169 yards. Over the previous 75 years, no NFL crew had EVER misplaced when doing that.
If that stat doesn’t sum up the Browns, I don’t know what does.
Lastly, in the event you guys have ever puzzled which groups I’m truly good at choosing, I’m going to begin sharing that data with you now that we’ve bought 10 full weeks of data. Right here’s a fast take a look at my greatest groups in relation to picks this yr.
Groups I’m 9-1 choosing this yr (Straight up): Colts, Broncos, Raiders (8-1), Titans (8-1)Longest successful streak: Raiders (Eight straight video games picked accurately)
Groups I’m the worst at choosing: Lions (4-6), Falcons (4-5)Longest shedding streak: Bengals, Panthers, Vikings, Payments (Two straight video games picked incorrectly)
Picks File
Straight up in Week 10: 8-6SU total: 95-53-1
In opposition to the unfold in Week 10: 5-9ATS total: 69-80
You could find John Breech on Fb or Twitter, and if he’s not doing a type of issues, he’s most likely watching a Hallmark Channel Christmas film to get mentally ready for the Bengals-Steelers recreation.
