The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Ship inquiries to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and embrace ‘mailbag’ within the topic line. Or hit me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline
Please observe: Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
With the Pac-12 too huge for his or her britches and shedding 10 members final 12 months, how did the remaining two once more overplay their hand a 12 months later with such poor technique? — @vakaviti
Would you agree that the whole lot went downhill for the Pac-12 when it was turned down by the AAC colleges? — @luigi8604
These are completely cheap reactions given the whiffs on the three American convention colleges after which, a couple of days later, failing to land UNLV.
Our view: The Pac-12’s underlying technique is pretty sound, however it has (badly) misplaced the narrative this week. The convention seems to be flailing because it seeks an eighth full-time member.
Longtime Pac-12 watchers gained’t be shocked. The messaging has been horrendous for years, ever since former commissioner Larry Scott started receiving heavy criticism — on the Hotline and elsewhere — within the mid-2010s for his misguided media technique, lavish spending and top-down administration model.
Scott’s response was to create a messaging tradition that prioritized Scott, as an alternative of what was greatest for the convention — considered one of many cases of the complete dynamic being flipped on its head.
The flawed communications technique continued by means of essentially the most turbulent time, when Scott’s successor, George Kliavkoff, tried to safe a media rights deal. The drawn-out course of acquired heavy hearth, and Kliavkoff declined to reply appropriately with forceful messaging.
Not surprisingly, the criticism undermined religion in Kliavkoff’s management and in the end contributed to the breakup of the convention in the summertime of 2023.
The scenario improved as the 2 remaining members, Washington State and Oregon State, made all the suitable strategic strikes and blasted their message to the school sports activities world: They might be affected person, tactical and environment friendly.
That narrative lasted by means of the preliminary enlargement wave two weeks in the past, when the Pac-12 landed Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State underneath the quilt of darkness and created a six-school basis for the long run.
However this week? Yikes.
Our sense has at all times been that the convention was pursuing a number of methods for the second part of its rebuilding mission. However you’d by no means comprehend it. The optics pointed solely to the AAC colleges as the one targets — and dangerous ones, at that.
With out assured media income to dangle in entrance of Memphis, South Florida and Tulane, the convention relied on income projections. That was a troublesome promote for colleges on the opposite aspect of the nation that might be making extra of a lateral transfer than an ascent of the school soccer hierarchy.
As soon as the AAC trio collectively declined the invitation, the Pac-12 landed Utah State because the seventh member however couldn’t get UNLV … little previous UNLV.
It’s a horrible look.
The fact, in our view, is kind of totally different — and it’s rooted in two interconnected elements.
— First, the Pac-12 acquired the faculties it wanted with a view to elevate the aggressive bar and guarantee itself of a viable media rights valuation. Boise State and San Diego State, particularly, had been important to the enlargement technique, with Colorado State and Fresno State in barely supporting roles.
Including the American Convention trio would have expanded the footprint into the Jap and Central Instances Zones, thus offering extra flexibility with kickoff instances (which makes media companions glad), and weakened a competitor for the Group of 5 playoff spot. However these colleges wouldn’t have demonstrably modified the media rights valuation.
And now …. now it doesn’t matter a lick. Not one of the colleges in play for the eighth spot will alter the media valuation. Not UNLV, not one of many Montana or Dakota colleges, not Texas State or Sacramento State or Southwest Fiji Island State are going to impression the valuation of Pac-12 soccer.
As soon as once more: The Pac-12 acquired the faculties it wanted.
— Second, as a result of there have been no out there choices to maneuver the valuation needle past the bar established by the preliminary enlargement, the convention has been fiscally shrewd with its choices.
It solely provided a couple of million {dollars} to assist Memphis and the opposite American colleges, which had been gazing exit charges of roughly $25 million.
And it declined to match the $25 million (roughly) the Mountain West promised UNLV in trade for a binding dedication, an absurd quantity for the Rebels besides that their presence (together with Air Power) permits the convention to outlive.
Matching that charge for a faculty that works geographically however does nothing substantive in your valuation would have been an insult to Boise State and San Diego State.
Ought to the Pac-12 have grabbed UNLV in the course of the preliminary enlargement part? That, too, is an inexpensive conclusion.
Our understanding is Nevada’s course of for modifications in athletic convention affiliation — it requires approval by the college regents and thus can not stay non-public — may need jeopardized the scenario for Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State. (There have been different causes for the Rebels not being on the Pac-12’s preliminary enlargement checklist, as nicely.)
In order that’s our learn on the scenario: The present optics of Pac-12 enlargement are far worse than the fact, in case you outline actuality by media valuation. And that’s the one actuality that really issues in realignment.
It’s simply that you’d by no means comprehend it as a result of the Pac-12 misplaced the message early this week in a lot the identical method that it misplaced the messaging underneath Scott and Kliavkoff.
The circumstances change, however the identical mistake has been made time and again and over.
Is UNLV actually that myopic to take quick money as an alternative of a greater future within the Pac 12? — @robertblowe
Apparently, sure.
We made reference to UNLV’s scenario in a earlier column, however it’s value repeating: The Rebels whiffed badly in selecting the Mountain West over the Pac-12.
The rebuilt Pac-12 has a stronger model, larger status, extra aggressive soccer, larger media rights worth and, probably, higher media publicity. And the Rebels turned all of it down to stay within the depleted Mountain West.
Realignment has performed out repeatedly over the a long time from coast to coast, and colleges at all times select to maneuver up if given the possibility. The Rebels handed.
The college and its constituents should stay with the error made by its management lengthy after that management has moved on.
Which Texas college ought to the Pac-12 goal given the whole lot we all know concerning the colleges they missed (or might miss) out on? Is there an FCS faculty out there value elevating? — @David_Kline
Texas State, a member of the Solar Belt and positioned midway between Austin and San Antonio, makes extra sense than another choice within the Lone Star State.
The truth is, we can not simply establish another choices within the Lone Star State.
And if not the Bobcats, the Pac-12 might try to seize a faculty or two from the FCS degree, together with the Montanas, the Dakotas or maybe Sacramento State. The price of transferring to FBS is excessive, so motivation could be tepid.
Another choice: Connecticut, which competes as an Impartial in soccer. (Considering out loud: Possibly you invite the Huskies and organize a sequence of non-conference video games with their basketball groups.)
However once more, it doesn’t matter at this level. The 4 Mountain West colleges set the bar; the three American colleges may need raised it barely; no person else will make a distinction.
Does the Pac-12 return to Memphis, Tulane, perhaps UTSA? They want at the least yet one more. — @MSyakattack
These colleges are dedicated to remaining within the AAC, and we don’t foresee a change in technique. The Pac-12 gained’t cowl the complete price of the exit charges (and even half the associated fee), and it can not supply a assured paycheck with out a media rights deal in place.
Additionally, the monetary bundle wanted to be considerably higher than what the three colleges obtain from the AAC with a view to offset the journey prices for his or her Olympic sports activities. (Both that, or the faculties wanted to search out new properties for his or her Olympic sports activities, which carries a completely totally different set of issues.)
No matter occurred to the idea of a reverse merger between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West? — @WHS1969
We haven’t acquired an trustworthy, on-the-record reply however suspect it was a mixture of the next:
— Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State, which had above-average media worth within the Mountain West, misplaced curiosity in persevering with to subsidize the faculties within the backside half of the Mountain West, which have below-average media worth.
And that, people, is the story of realignment: The stronger manufacturers transfer up and go away the weaker manufacturers behind. The names change (Texas or USC or Boise State), however the template is fastened for eternity.
— The 2 sides acquired crossways over negotiations on the scheduling partnership, with the Mountain West overplaying its hand and leaving Washington State and Oregon State tired of becoming a member of forces.
Maybe there have been different elements concerned. However as soon as the reverse merger was faraway from consideration, there was just one end result potential: The Pac-12 was going to choose off the highest of the Mountain West.
Is the Mountain West actually focusing on MAC colleges for football-only membership? Does that imply they’re assured concerning the subsequent media deal? — @FryEthO
A slew of nationwide media studies Thursday prompt the Mountain West has alerted the MAC of its curiosity in Northern Illinois and Toledo as football-only members.
We want the convention good luck in that endeavor.
For these unfamiliar with the Mid-American Convention, it’s successfully a bit of granite in the midst of the Soccer Bowl Subdivision. One faculty, Marshall, has left the convention within the final 50 years.
Why would Northern Illinois or Toledo go away for the Mountain West?
At greatest, it’s a lateral transfer competitively.
Additionally, the monetary advantages could be extraordinarily restricted, in the event that they exist in any respect.
And does anybody assume the Mountain West will land a media rights deal that provides extra publicity than what the MAC colleges at present obtain from ESPN (and can proceed to obtain if the deal is prolonged past its present time period)? We actually don’t.
Additionally, why did the Mountain West inform the MAC of its curiosity within the colleges? That’s not a typical realignment technique — enlargement raids are carried out with Black Ops secrecy — and it makes us surprise concerning the legitimacy of the transfer.
Nothing surprises the Hotline on the earth of realignment. However Northern Illinois and Toledo leaping to the Mountain West would shock us.
May Gonzaga, or one other faculty that doesn’t play soccer, rely towards the NCAA membership requirement? Or is it sport-specific? — @BearFlagFan
Convention should have eight full-time members to obtain NCAA certification. In easiest phrases, meaning colleges should take part in each soccer and basketball (and there are different important sports activities, as nicely.)
So Gonzaga wouldn’t be thought of a full-time member of the reconstituted Pac-12, identical to Hawaii, which competes within the Large West for each sport besides soccer, isn’t thought of a full-time member of the Mountain West.
However the Zags would have immense worth to the Pac-12, whilst a partial member.
The truth is, they need to be the precedence. Work out the monetary phrases, seize the Zags after which fear concerning the eighth soccer faculty at a later date.
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(If Gonzaga joins, then UConn makes much more sense as a football-only member if the deal features a sure variety of basketball video games.)
Does Hawaii rely for the Mountain West attending to eight colleges? If not, that might imply the MW wants so as to add two colleges. — @CurtisBlack
That’s right. Hawaii doesn’t rely as a full-time member — and we don’t anticipate that to vary — so the Mountain West should add two members; the Pac-12 solely wants one.
The conferences may compete for a similar colleges, like Texas State.
However once more, the framework is about: The Pac-12’s soccer product and media worth are superior.
Since media-market measurement appears to be a driving power in realignment, why isn’t San Jose State and the Bay Space market ever talked about as a pure selection for the Pac-12? — @meandavey1
Many San Jose State followers have questioned about that concern for years. Why doesn’t the college get credit score for the Bay Space market?
And the reply is fairly easy: There’s so little curiosity within the Spartans regionally that the soccer program doesn’t register.
ESPN would by no means view SJSU as delivering the Bay Space media market, partially as a result of there are such a lot of groups (skilled and faculty).
The connection between campus location and media market isn’t at all times clear. Washington State has tens of hundreds of followers on the western aspect of Washington, however Seattle isn’t thought of a house marketplace for the Cougars.
However a long time of media offers for conferences throughout the Pacific Time Zone have made it pretty clear what the networks take into consideration the Spartans.
The Mountain West cost to retain UNLV and Air Power has me pondering: May the Pac-12 entrance some money to deliver Cal and Stanford again? — @hpartlow
The Pac-12 has a formidable struggle chest, one which exceeds $200 million. But it surely doesn’t have almost sufficient to lure the Bay Space groups again. That may require a whole lot of thousands and thousands of {dollars} for every faculty in the event that they even needed to reverse course. Which they don’t.
We now have observed a good quantity of chatter about Stanford and Cal returning to the Pac-12 because the convention expanded two weeks in the past.
Backside line: Except the ACC implodes, it’s not taking place for a wide range of causes, together with a binding, 12-year contractual obligation.
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