The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Ship inquiries to [email protected] and embrace ‘mailbag’ within the topic line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
What are your present odds on the Mountain West’s survival? — Michael F
The chance of survival is lower than 100%, for positive. However how a lot much less?
First, let’s return in time, to the Pac-12’s multi-year existential disaster, for vital context on the Hotline’s strategy to a subject as fraught as convention survival.
Quickly after USC and UCLA introduced their departures to the Huge Ten on June 30, 2022, we revealed survival odds for the Pac-12 as an easy-to-digest technique of serving to followers higher perceive a sophisticated, extremely fluid state of affairs.
The percentages ebbed and flowed for 9 months as varied dynamics unfolded and former commissioner George Kliavkoff pursued a media rights settlement. Within the spring of 2023, we settled on survival as a 4-point favourite over extinction. That translated to an implied chance of roughly 60 p.c — not significantly better than 50-50.
(The Hotline often has been accused on social media of reporting that the convention was a lock to outlive. That’s patently false.)
Our skepticism was rooted in 1) the lack of the convention’s main soccer model (USC) and media market (Los Angeles) driving down demand for stock, 2) the continuing danger that Washington and Oregon, essentially the most worthwhile remaining soccer faculties, would go away for the Huge Ten and three) Kliavkoff’s perplexing lack of urgency.
As we wrote in Jan. ’23:
“Slow-playing the process could prove advantageous, but is that the most likely outcome? Not from where we sit. The upside reward that could result from extending negotiations into the spring — and allowing marketplace dynamics to generate a few extra million dollars per year for each Pac-12 campus — is not worth the downside risk. Because the downside risk is extinction.”
That draw back danger turned actuality six months later.
Quick ahead two years, to the Mountain West’s struggle for survival.
The circumstances are eerily related in some regards: The convention has but to safe a media rights settlement regardless of pursuing a deal for months; the highest soccer manufacturers have departed (for the rebuilt Pac-12); and its most dear remaining faculties, UNLV and Air Pressure, are flight dangers.
If inclined, Air Pressure may search refuge within the American and hyperlink up with Military and Navy, whereas UNLV may search an settlement to hitch the brand new Pac-12.
And there’s an added complication: Lawsuits in opposition to the Mountain West, filed by the Pac-12 (over poaching penalties) and by three departing faculties (over exit charges), with roughly $150 million at stake.
The state of affairs is precarious, to say the least, and it’ll stay precarious till a media rights settlement is signed and sealed.
That mentioned, the Hotline has set Mountain West survival as 7-point favourite over extinction, which interprets to an implied chance of roughly 75 p.c.
How ought to that be interpreted?
In case you see a workforce favored by 4 factors (Pac-12 survival), it suggests the sport may go both approach — {that a} victory by the underdog (extinction) is hardly an upset.
However for those who see a workforce favored by 7 factors, it signifies victory is probably going however not assured — that an extinction occasion would represent an upset.
That’s how we view the Mountain West’s state of affairs: Extinction could be a light shock.
Why are we extra assured within the Mountain West than we had been within the Pac-12?
Two causes:
— Commissioner Gloria Nevarez.
Though caught abruptly in Sept. ’24 when Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and San Diego State bolted for the Pac-12, Nevarez received’t take the identical nonchalant strategy to media rights negotiations that Kliavkoff possessed. With an extended profession in school sports activities, she’s properly versed within the dynamics and unpredictability of realignment. (To that finish, Nevarez has retained Endeavor, among the best media consultants within the enterprise.)
— UNLV already declined a proposal from the Pac-12.
The Rebels have their sights set on an invite from the Huge 12 and seem to consider dominating the depleted Mountain West affords a wider path to their dream vacation spot. We see that technique as an enormous miscalculation by the college’s administration, and it’s attainable the Rebels will change their ways. However for now, they appear content material — as does Air Pressure, we must always add.
To be clear, our Mountain West forecast comes with a big caveat: If the authorized dynamics flip in opposition to the convention in a decisive method, the Hotline will reset the survival odds downward.
As with the Pac-12 within the 2022-23 window, the state of affairs is fluid. Realignment is fluid. If the Mountain West will get whipped in courtroom and immediately can’t come near assembly its monetary guarantees to UNLV or Air Pressure, the chances will plunge to Pac-12 ranges.
Why not simply go to a 32-team School Soccer Playoff with no byes. Play 4 consecutive weekends, with a two-week break earlier than the championship sport. — Scott O
Humorous you ask, as a result of a 32-team discipline was one in every of a number of codecs mentioned privately by Energy 4 directors in latest months.
It was extraordinarily preliminary and didn’t enter the general public sphere. As an alternative, the Huge Ten’s 24- and 28-team proposals had been leaked final weekend — presumably to create sufficient backlash to squash the concept earlier than it gained traction.
In our view, the CFP shouldn’t develop past 16 groups. We would like it stand on 12, however 16 could be tolerable. Something past 16 turns into so massive as to threaten the aggressive attract of the common season.
In spite of everything, the common season is school soccer’s spine and, in that regard, differentiates the game from the NFL, NBA, MLB and even school basketball.
Additionally, enlargement past 16 groups would require a fifth spherical of play jammed into the primary half of December, doubtlessly resulting in the elimination of convention championship video games.
The Hotline may take or depart championship weekend. However on no account ought to a call on the postseason undermine the aggressive brilliance of the common season.
The CFP choice committee’s choice to make use of enhanced metrics to find out energy of schedule (SOS) is an enchancment. Nevertheless, many SEC websites and reporters see this as commissioner Greg Sankey and ESPN’s handiwork, anticipating the committee to make use of ESPN’s up to date FPI rankings. I belief you discover this absurd. — Jon J
The up to date Soccer Energy Index revealed by ESPN this week favors the SEC to a level that solely is smart when considered from 30,000 ft. The corporate has an enormous monetary funding within the SEC and advantages enormously when the convention thrives.
It additionally has an enormous monetary funding within the playoff, as the only rights-holder (with a sub-licensing settlement with Turner).
The potential for conflicts of curiosity to permeate ESPN’s protection is so apparent — and visual on any given Saturday — that we received’t trouble addressing it.
And sure, the SEC pushed for the adjustments to the choice committee’s strength-of-schedule metrics. Sankey and his campuses had been involved that shifting to a nine-game convention schedule, leading to extra losses, would undermine the convention’s success inside the highly-subjective choice course of.
We now have no motive to consider that ESPN’s FPI will play a big function in figuring out the CFP discipline. The committee leans on knowledge from SportSource Analytics and, sadly, goes to nice lengths to protect essentially the most related data from the general public.
If that adjustments and the FPI takes centerstage within the course of, there might be substantial backlash — with the Huge Ten, which is aligned with Fox, not ESPN, possible main the cost.
In a worst-case situation, if the lawsuits in opposition to the Mountain West are nonetheless unresolved going into the 2026 season, may the convention declare the 5 faculties are nonetheless sure by membership contracts and thus not legally a part of the Pac-12 but? — @CurtisBlack
First, let’s ensure our readers are conversant in the state of affairs.
The Mountain West is the defendant in two instances:
— The poaching penalty lawsuit, filed by the Pac-12 over $55 million in penalties the Mountain West claimed it was owed following the introduced departures of the 5 faculties final fall.
— The exit charge lawsuit, filed by Colorado State, Utah State and Boise State over the charges owed to the Mountain West. With 5 faculties leaving — San Diego State and Fresno State aren’t a part of the lawsuit however would owe the exit charges — the whole quantity at stake is roughly $100 million.
Mediation (of each instances) failed to provide a decision. The subsequent step is a courtroom listening to, scheduled for Sept. 9, on the Mountain West’s movement to dismiss the poaching penalty case. We anticipate the movement to be denied, which is able to improve the chance of a settlement. (College presidents are cautious of trials.)
Now, let’s say the instances drag on till subsequent summer season. Sure, it’s unlikely. However the Hotline by no means balks at addressing unlikely outcomes — the method will be instructive for understanding extra believable eventualities.
We haven’t requested authorized consultants, so that is merely our hunch: A continued deadlock wouldn’t stop the 5 faculties from switching conferences.
They’ve already accomplished the mandatory paperwork to depart the Mountain West and be part of the Pac-12 on July 1, 2026.
And keep in mind, the lawsuits are usually not about convention affiliation. They’re, finally, about money.
On this switch portal age, why not impose a postseason ban and permit the gamers to instantly switch? — Marty B
We assume you’re referring to the NCAA’s choice to slap Michigan with big fines (roughly $30 million) within the sign-stealing scandal however not ban the Wolverines from the postseason.
Always remember: Every little thing the NCAA does on this period is available in response to a lawsuit or is designed to keep away from a lawsuit.
In Michigan’s case, it was the latter.
The Committee on Infractions declined to impose a postseason ban on Tennessee two years in the past after an investigation uncovered greater than 200 infractions.
Had the COI tried to dam the Wolverines from competing within the CFP or a bowl sport, the college may need used established precedent as the idea for authorized motion.
It’s additionally a matter of primary equity. Postseason bans punish the present gamers for previous crimes dedicated (often) by coaches who’re not with the college.
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School Soccer Playoff: The Huge Ten’s newest proposal is a stunner, which is perhaps all the level
(That explains the extra suspension for present Michigan coach Sherrone Moore, who destroyed textual content messages that might have been used as proof.)
The NCAA’s present view of postseason bans ought to have been adopted years in the past. However as with a lot else, it was too sluggish to maneuver.
What are your ideas on new Stanford athletic director, John Donahoe? — @EngelKRichard
Our intestine response? Skepticism.
Donahoe is extraordinarily completed, however he’s a university sports activities outsider precisely when business information is crucial.
Additionally, he’s a 60-something retiree who made thousands and thousands within the company world, together with a stint as Nike’s CEO. Will Donahoe be keen to place within the work wanted to repair all of Stanford’s issues and place the Cardinal for achievement within the subsequent period of school soccer and basketball?
We’ll reserve judgment for a yr or two, which is simply truthful relating to athletic administrators.
However this hardly looks as if a can’t-miss rent.
What number of video games does Cal need to win for Justin Wilcox to outlive? — @a_enchilad_a
Cal normal supervisor Ron Rivera has a direct line to chancellor Wealthy Lyons and can successfully make the decision on Wilcox’s future employment. Thankfully, he addressed that very subject earlier this week when talking with reporters.
What does success seem like?
“Anything that puts us in a solid bowl game, eight, nine wins,” Rivera mentioned. “I think that’s what you’re looking for. That shows growth from last year. Last year, we didn’t win the close games. We’ve got to win the close games.”
These issues are intertwined, after all. The Bears received’t end 8-4 or 9-3 in the event that they lose a slew of shut video games.
“We all know the clock’s ticking,” Rivera added. “There’s pressure to be successful, especially in today’s climate.”
Put one other approach: One other mediocre season most likely received’t be sufficient for Wilcox.
Why are you over the hill? — @uapseattle
Stunning that this remark appeared on my X feed after the publication of an article that examined the arduous highway forward for Washington (and UCLA and USC) within the Huge Ten.
As at all times, we urge followers to learn the content material earlier than leaping to conclusions primarily based on the headline or the temporary description on X.
On this case, the reference to “recent history” wasn’t about Washington particularly however, quite, the historical past of Huge Ten enlargement groups.
Give the article a strive. Upon studying, you may really feel in another way — until, after all, rage on the Hotline is the objective.
And that’s positive, too.
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