Generally the chaos of the NFL arms you precisely what you want whenever you’re busy doing completely nothing.
The San Francisco 49ers spent final week on their couches, resting and watching RedZone, solely to see the soccer gods — and the Philadelphia Eagles — half the Pink Sea for them.
The Eagles misplaced. The trail to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, as soon as a mathematical fever dream, is immediately a really paved, very actual highway.
(Who might have seen that coming?)
The door is broad open for the Niners. However earlier than anybody begins reserving inns for Santa Clar… However earlier than anybody extrapolates out too far, let’s be adults about this.
The trail may be cleaner, however the mountain climbing boots nonetheless must be laced up.
The arduous a part of incomes the No. 1 seed isn’t getting assist; it’s the 49ers truly profitable their ultimate 4 video games.
And whereas these video games don’t look almost as daunting as they did only a few weeks in the past — the Niners must be favored in all 4 — it’s not as if these Niners are an plain juggernaut.
Not of their state.
You’ll be able to parse DVOA and EPA per play all you need, however as I see it, the fact for San Francisco down the stretch is way easier. There’s a system for fulfillment: a inflexible, non-negotiable system.
It’s the one means the Niners can make the most of the home-field benefit the remainder of the NFC appears eager to offer them:
4 offensive touchdowns and a defensive turnover.
That’s it.
Hammer this phrase into your thoughts now, as a result of it’s going to dictate the following month (plus) of your life.
The 49ers want to attain 4 touchdowns on offense and generate one takeaway on protection each single week.
Why? As a result of this isn’t the suffocating protection of 2019. It’s not even the swarm of 2023. Let’s name a spade a spade: This yr’s defensive unit is patchwork. It may be enough at its greatest.
They could be capable to maintain the Titans to fewer than two touchdowns, however the playoff-caliber groups down the stretch and within the match? Not an opportunity. And there shall be video games the place they are going to be gashed. They’re actually going to surrender yards.
But when they will rip the ball out as soon as — simply register one singular, momentum-swinging turnover per sport — that’s all this offense ought to want.
“Winning shootouts” sounds derogatory, however that’s the task. The offense must be elite. It must be the engine, the navigator, and the finisher.
Within the trendy NFL, 28 factors (assuming the kicker does his job, which is a complete different query) plus a stolen possession goes to win you a hell of a variety of soccer video games.
And they will want each level down the stretch.
First, you’ve got the Tennessee Titans. And Cam Ward, the No. 1 total decide, seems to be like the reality. He’s slippery, he’s assured, and he has that “I don’t know that I shouldn’t be winning this game” power that ruins contenders’ seasons. Plucky is harmful. Plucky requires a superior group to take away all doubt on the facility dynamics early, lest the Titans get any concepts.
Then comes Week 16. The Indianapolis Colts. A highway sport. Prime time. And who’s ready for them? Probably “Big Philly” himself, Philip Rivers. Sure, he’s 44 years outdated. Sure, he most likely strikes with the turning radius of a cruise ship. However he’s nonetheless a gunslinger and a Corridor of Famer, and who is aware of, he may be rested sufficient to do exactly sufficient to wreck Christmas.
It doesn’t matter what, the Colts are going to have potential Offensive Participant of the 12 months Jonathan Taylor working downhill towards a porous run protection. And protection coordinator Lou Anarumo — the mad scientist who provides quarterbacks nightmares — isn’t a pushover, both.
If you happen to survive that, the Niners will face the Chicago Bears. You wish to speak about a observe meet? The Bears have the form of offensive firepower that appears on the Niners’ secondary and sees an all-you-can-eat buffet. If the Niners don’t hit the benchmark — 4 touchdowns, one turnover — the Bears will.
And eventually, the hoss battle. Week 18 towards the Seattle Seahawks.
We’ve got to say it: The Seahawks may be the very best group within the NFL proper now. Sam Darnold may not have crushed his rap as a turnover machine, however he can beat the Niners.
And this isn’t only a rivalry sport; it’s a heavyweight title struggle, with probably the NFC West belt (and a first-round bye) on the road.
I don’t wish to face the Seahawks’ unimaginable protection below any circumstances.
Underneath these circumstances? The Niners higher come right.
So, how do the 49ers survive? How do they run the desk?
4 touchdowns. One turnover.
The Niners have the personnel to do it. They’ve the teaching. They simply want the execution. The protection doesn’t must be excellent; it simply must be opportunistic. Bend, bend, bend, however steal the ball as soon as.
Is it doable? Completely.
Now they must do it. That’s the arduous half.
In the event that they keep on with the system — in the event that they embrace the shootout and belief their firepower — they gained’t simply sneak into the playoffs. They’ll kick the door down. They’ll enter the match as the most popular, most battle-tested group within the bracket. A group that stared down the No. 1 decide, a prime-time highway take a look at, a Bears observe meet, and the NFL’s greatest protection, and didn’t blink.
They’ll be the humming-on-all-cylinders group that nobody will wish to play.
And boy, will they’ve earned that week off.
So long as the Niners can handle 4 touchdowns and a turnover, something is feasible this winter.
