Republican Eric Hovde is dealing with a essential second in Friday’s first Wisconsin Senate debate amid indicators he’s closing in on incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in one of many nation’s best upper-chamber races.
The rivals will go head-to-head as polling exhibits the Trump-backed Republican narrowing the hole, fueling GOP hopes for a Badger State pickup within the battle for the Senate majority.
Hovde, a Madison-area businessman and millionaire, ran for the Senate within the 2012 cycle during which Baldwin in the end gained the seat, however he misplaced within the GOP major. Democrats are shrugging off the concept that Hovde has sufficient momentum this time round — however, as he runs with former President Trump’s backing and an enormous self-funding increase, voices in each events acknowledge the race is in toss-up territory.
“It’s a dead heat,” Wisconsin-based Republican strategist Invoice McCoshen mentioned.
The Prepare dinner Political Report shifted the race away from Democrats earlier this month, making it considered one of simply three toss-up Senate contests, after Prepare dinner’s Swing State Challenge surveys discovered Baldwin’s 7-point lead in August diminished to a 2-point lead this month. Polling averages from Resolution Desk HQ and The Hill additionally present a shrinking hole: Baldwin’s now up by 2.8 share factors, down from 3.5 factors simply final week and seven factors again in August.
Hovde’s marketing campaign confirmed to The Hill final week that it has seen a 1- or 2-point break up in latest inside polls, and Baldwin informed The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that it’s “very close” in her personal internals. A polling memo from the Republican Nationwide Senatorial Committee (NRSC), obtained by The Hill and reported by Politico this week, discovered Hovde narrowly main Baldwin in a head-to-head for the primary time in its internals, up by 1 level. With different candidates on the poll, Hovde and Baldwin had been at an actual tie.
“Hovde has a clear opportunity to continue his growth and consolidate support while driving Baldwin’s negatives up and her position on the ballot down,” NRSC government director Jason Thielman wrote within the memo.
And as Republicans have seen promise within the numbers in Wisconsin, exterior cash has poured into the race, together with an enormous latest inflow from the Senate Management Fund, a high GOP tremendous PAC, to spice up Hovde. Baldwin nonetheless has the fundraising edge, in accordance with the newest Federal Election Fee filings, however Hovde ended the third quarter with barely more money readily available.
“Not only has he invested a record amount of his own money, but the third parties — including the Senate Leadership [Fund] and the NRSC — have invested more than $20 million down the home stretch here,” McCoshen mentioned. “So they clearly see an opportunity for a pickup and are putting their money where their mouth is. And that gives Hovde a chance for sure.”
Hovde misplaced his 2012 bid for the Senate seat within the GOP major to former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). Six years later, he sat out one other run as Baldwin comfortably beat again a Trump-backed challenger to win a second time period.
Republicans are optimistic about Hovde’s second try at breaking by means of within the Midwestern “blue wall” state this yr. Although the social gathering had seemed to then-Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) as a possible contender, his choice to not run cleared the way in which for Hovde to emerge as the highest contender.
He’s notably among the many high 5 self-funding candidates throughout presidential and congressional races this cycle, in accordance with information compiled by Open Secrets and techniques. Amongst numerous ventures, he’s the CEO of actual property growth firm Hovde Properties and the CEO of Utah-based Sunwest Financial institution.
“Elections in Wisconsin are naturally on a knife’s edge, and they can go one way or the other,” mentioned Alec Zimmerman, a Republican strategist who led communications for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) throughout the midterms. However a confluence of things this cycle, from Hovde’s self-funding to Trump’s polling within the state, he argued, is giving the Republican momentum.
Nonetheless, whereas Democrats acknowledge it’s a good race to the end line, they’re assured Baldwin will fend off her challenger this November.
“Close elections are what we do in Wisconsin. And Tammy Baldwin never spent a day of this race campaigning like it was going to be anything other than a knock-down, drag-out fight to the finish,” Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki mentioned in an interview earlier this month. He knocked Hovde’s marketing campaign as “underwhelming” and mentioned the Republican is “playing MAGA dress-up” as he stands with Trump.
As Hovde tries to color Baldwin as a profession politician, Democrats have solid Hovde as a carpetbagger, pointing to his work out of state, and hammered his previous assist for overturning Roe v. Wade.
“A couple of polls show it’s narrowing,” Zepecki mentioned of the race. “And to those of us who live in Wisconsin, we shrug our shoulders and say, ‘Yeah, we always thought this was going to be close.’ And we go back to work.”
Hovde and Baldwin now head into their first and certain solely debate stage showdown in opposition to the backdrop of a tightening race and a troublesome battle for Senate management, although Hovde has reportedly pushed for extra debates to be scheduled.
The incumbent “will show why Wisconsin voters trust her to represent them in the US Senate: she shows up, listens, and delivers for them and their families. And she’ll work with anyone to do it,” Baldwin marketing campaign spokesperson Andrew Mamo informed The Hill in a press release. “Meanwhile, Eric Hovde will be the out-of-touch California bank owner we all know he is, spreading lies about Tammy, insulting Wisconsinites, and pushing his extreme policy agenda.”
Hovde’s marketing campaign, however, says the Republican will use the controversy stage to “showcase what the people of Wisconsin already know — Tammy Baldwin is radical, extreme and wrong for Wisconsin and it’s time for change,” spokesperson Zach Bannon mentioned.
The rivals are anticipated to spar over a number of the identical scorching subjects which have taken up different states’ latest Senate races — together with the financial system, immigration and reproductive rights — and dip into a few of their greatest assault strains. The Friday evening program won’t draw an enormous viewers of Wisconsinites, observers say, however the candidates will seemingly combat to attain viral moments that they will use to spice up their profile or bash their opponent within the run-up to Election Day.
“Any misstep” on the controversy stage will likely be “amplified” over the ultimate days of the marketing campaign, McCoshen mentioned. And in a race during which the candidates seem separated by not more than a few factors, that might make an enormous distinction.
One other massive issue looming over the Senate contest is the aggressive race for the White Home, as Trump’s energy within the Midwest bolsters GOP hopes for the Senate.
The most recent Resolution Desk HQ averages present Trump main Vice President Harris by 0.5 share factors within the state. He gained Wisconsin by lower than a degree in 2016, and President Biden pulled off a razor-thin flip again to Democrats in 2020.
Trump “needs to win for Hovde to win,” McCoshen mentioned. “I can’t see a scenario where Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin and Hovde pulls off an upset.”
Republicans want simply two seats to take management of the Senate, they usually’re favored to take action with Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I) retirement in West Virginia and Sen. Jon Tester (D) extremely weak in Montana. In the event that they don’t lose some other seats, that might win them the chamber — and potential pickups in Wisconsin or elsewhere might assist increase their majority.
“Wisconsin’s kind of like the country’s foremost 50-50 state,” Zimmerman mentioned. And because the polls develop tighter, “the stakes couldn’t be higher at the time this debate is being held.”
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