Clemson grew to become the fifth and closing convention champion to qualify for the Faculty Soccer Playoff with a dramatic victory over SMU within the ACC championship on Saturday evening that positioned the choice committee in essentially the most tough place potential: Whether or not to select SMU or Alabama for the ultimate at-large spot.
The stakes are monumental, each for the 2024 CFP subject and the way forward for the occasion.
Clemson’s win — on a walk-off, 56-yard subject aim — got here moments after Oregon fended off Penn State for a 45-37 victory within the Large Ten title recreation that secured the No. 1 general seed for the undefeated Geese.
Oregon and Georgia, the SEC champion, are assured opening spherical byes within the 12-team occasion, with the Geese assigned to the Rose Bowl and the Bulldogs to the Sugar Bowl.
Three groups are in rivalry for the ultimate two byes: Clemson, Boise State, which received the Mountain West, and Arizona State, which claimed the Large 12 title.
Considered one of them would be the odd-team-out and open the playoffs on the highway in two weeks, seemingly in opposition to Texas, Penn State or Notre Dame.
However that difficulty is secondary — no less than in its potential to ignite controversy — to the choice of Alabama or SMU for the ultimate at-large berth.
The Mustangs (11-2) had been No. 8 within the committee’s rankings launched earlier this week, whereas the Crimson Tide (9-3) was No. 11.
Would the committee punish SMU for dropping the ACC championship recreation on a last-second subject aim by Clemson?
Or would it not exclude Alabama, which performed a vastly stronger schedule than SMU and has extra high quality wins? (The Crimson Tide beat Georgia, which pummeled Clemson, which beat SMU.)
If the committee picks SMU for the ultimate spot, the mighty SEC can be left with simply three CFP bids.
Commissioner Greg Sankey mentioned in October that the choice course of needed to “go incredibly well.” Some took Sankey’s remark as a not-so-veiled menace: If the SEC and Large Ten didn’t get what they needed (when it comes to bids and seeds), the game’s strongest conferences would pressure a change within the format beginning with the 2026 season.
That change may lead to extra automated bids for the SEC and Large Ten on the expense of entry for the opposite FBS conferences.
Past the SMU-Alabama debate, the 12-team subject is ready. Solely the seeds should be resolved earlier than the announcement on Sunday (9 a.m. on ESPN).
It ought to look one thing like this:
— No. 1 to No. 4 seeds (opening-round byes): Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State
— No. 5 to No. 8 seeds (opening spherical house video games): Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State/Tennessee
— No. 9 to No. 12 seeds (opening spherical highway video games): Ohio State/Tennessee, Indiana, Clemson and Alabama/SMU
Arizona State’s victory over Iowa State within the Large 12 championship additionally brings a level of readability to the Pac-12’s bowl choice course of, which incorporates all of the legacy colleges this season regardless of the breakup of the convention.
With the Geese and Solar Devils headed to the CFP, all different eligible groups will leap two spots from their pure place:
— The Alamo Bowl has the primary decide and is predicted to pick Colorado, which tied for first place within the Large 12 however misplaced the tiebreaker.
The Buffaloes will face both Iowa State or Brigham Younger, in line with bowl officers.
Given the Cyclones’ woeful efficiency within the title recreation — and their anticipated plunge within the rankings — Brigham Younger is a secure wager to oppose Colorado. (The groups didn’t meet in the course of the common season.)
— The Vacation Bowl has the second decide and can invite Washington State, which is protected by the Pac-12’s one-loss-down rule. It prevents bowl officers from bypassing one crew for an additional if there’s a two-game (or extra) distinction in losses.
The Cougars are 8-4 and should be chosen forward of the three groups that completed with 6-6 data (USC, Washington and Cal), in line with the Pac-12.
Washington State’s opponent will probably be from the ACC.
— Subsequent up is the Las Vegas Bowl, which has its alternative of the 6-6 groups and is predicted to ask the Trojans, who started their season in Sin Metropolis with a dramatic victory over LSU.
USC’s opponent will come from the SEC, which may imply a showdown in opposition to coach Lincoln Riley’s former crew, Oklahoma.
However we surprise if Mississippi, led by former USC coach Lane Kiffin, is extra seemingly.
— The Solar Bowl has the fourth decide and is predicted to decide on Washington, which has not performed in El Paso since 2002.
The Huskies will probably be matched in opposition to a crew from the ACC.
— That leaves the LA Bowl to pick Cal, the lone remaining eligible crew among the many Pac-12 legacy colleges.
The choice is smart in that the Bears have a big alumni base in Southern California and didn’t play an everyday season recreation at USC or UCLA for the primary time in eons.
Cal would face an opponent from the Mountain West.
The bowl pairings will develop into official Sunday afternoon, following the reveal of the CFP.
