Two major oddsmakers have a new favorite to win the 2024 presidential election — former President Donald Trump.
According to an account in Newsweek, both BetOnline and Betfred have installed the Republican as the betting choice over President Biden, albeit only slightly.
Panama-based BetOnline is now offering 11-4 odds on Mr. Trump winning (meaning a winning $4 bet will get you $11, plus your money back), compared to 13-4 on a Biden victory.
Vice President Kamala Harris is the third-favorite, with odds of 5-1 followed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis at 10-1.
In the immediate aftermath of his 2020 defeat at Mr. Biden’s hands, BetOnline’s odds on a successful Trump return were 33-1.
But how Mr. Biden’s tenure has unfolded, plus Mr. Trump’s apparent willingness to try to become just the second U.S. president to serve nonconsecutive terms, has changed things in oddsmakers’ eyes.
“Biden‘s approval rating is falling, and it looks less likely than ever that he will be able to get his agenda through Congress,” BetOnline political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty, told Newsweek. “A defeat at the midterms (70% likely) would further tie his hands and likely make for a very uncomfortable couple of years after 2022. It’s hard to see his brand being as strong the second time around. Running again, aged 81, may make little sense.”
Betfred’s odds are a little longer, but for the first time, Mr. Trump is now its favorite.
The British-based oddsmaker is offering 4-1 odds on a Trump victory in 2024, slightly shorter than the 9-2 price for Mr. Biden.
“That’s the first time we have had Trump as favorite for a shock return,” spokesman Peter Spencer told Newsweek. “Biden is facing big challenges after pledging to unite America.”
Some bookmakers, however, still offer the shorter odds on Mr. Biden, though in every case the difference is only slight.
For example, according to Newsweek, Britain’s Ladbrokes has Mr. Biden a 7-2 favorite, with Mr. Trump’s odds at 4-1. British online site Betfair also has Mr. Trump at 4-1, behind Mr. Biden at 10-3.