It has not been a fairly summer season for shoppers at California’s supermarkets.
That’s what my trusty spreadsheet discovered when averaging slices of Client Value Indexes for 3 Golden State metro areas: the Los Angeles/Orange County combo, San Francisco and San Diego.
This summer season’s pricing – June by means of August’s studies – reveals that costs within the “food at home” class throughout these three metros grew at a mean 3.3% annual price this summer season. So, grocery inflation greater than doubled from 1.5% in 2024.
Sure, meals at residence inflation is nowhere close to the pandemic period’s inflation surge that noticed grocery costs balloon at a 6.4% common annual price in 2021-23. Nonetheless, mid-year 2025’s California grocery inflation is working sooner than the general value of dwelling.
The general Client Value Index for the three massive markets averaged 3.1% good points this summer season, the identical as a yr in the past. In the course of the 2021-23 inflation surge, this worth yardstick grew at a 5% annual price.
These current cost-of-living gyrations, nonetheless, don’t mitigate the monetary ache of the worst bout of inflation in 4 a long time.
Take a longer-term view, as measured by the CPI: California groceries are 26% costlier over 5 years, as the general value of dwelling rose 23%.
By the aisle
A piece of this summer season’s revived meals inflation will be attributed to the upper prices of manufacturing and distribution. The brand new administration’s tariffs are guaranteeing imported meals dearer.
Ponder the grocery classes tracked by native CPIs to see which California grocery store aisles are most troublesome to your family’s meals funds. These are ranked by one-year will increase …
Meats, poultry, fish and eggs: Up 4.3% yearly this summer season vs. 3% final yr however off the 4.8%-a-year tempo of 2021-23. Sure, the high-profile egg inflation has moderated. However beef costs soared — up 24% over 5 years — as drought has thinned herds and manufacturing prices have soared.
Vegatables and fruits: Up 4.1% yearly this summer season vs. 0.2% final yr and 4.8% a yr in 2021-23. Labor shortages have shrunk harvests whereas tariffs have upped import costs. These prices have elevated by 20% over the previous 5 years.
Nonalcoholic drinks: Up 3.4% this summer season vs. 1.3% final yr and 4.7% a yr in 2021-23. Tariffs hit espresso. Prices for substances akin to fruit and sugar have elevated sharply. Costs are up 20% over 5 years.
Sweets, fat and oils: Up 2.9% this summer season vs. 2% final yr and eight.8% a yr in 2021-23. Costlier sugar and cattle outweigh sure financial savings on grains. But these costs are up 35% over 5 years.
Alcoholic drinks: 2.7% this summer season vs. 1.1% final yr and the three.6% common in 2021-23. Falling consumption retains worth hike modest – up solely 15% over 5 years.
Dairy: Up 2% this summer season vs. 0.7% final yr and the 6.2% common in 2021-23. Costs are again on the upswing as a consequence of smaller herds and rising manufacturing prices. Costs are up 21% over 5 years.
Cereals/baked items: Up 1.9% this summer season, the identical as final yr, and nowhere close to the 8.2% yearly in 2021-23. Grain costs have returned to normalcy after the pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia struggle upset provide chains. Costs are up 31% over 5 years.
Eating out?
If a Californian thinks a meal in town received’t damage the funds, assume once more.
Sure, inflation within the “food away from home” class within the three massive metros dramatically cooled this yr. The trade is adjusting to elevated ingredient prices and better labor bills.
This summer season’s 3.6% one-year achieve in eating out costs is down from a 6.3% surge final yr and a 5.1% per yr tempo of 2021-23.
However eating out has seen faster worth development than groceries or the general California economic system. Having anyone else prepare dinner is 28% costlier than it was 5 years in the past.
