Californians have been extra optimistic about funds in July, solely the second month-to-month enchancment since Donald Trump received the presidency.
The Convention Board’s measurement of California’s client confidence rose 2% from June, in keeping with my trusty spreadsheets’ overview of this index derived from client polling. The index has dropped in seven of the 9 months since October, simply earlier than Election Day.
The boldness yardstick is off 25% from October, when it was at a 14-month excessive. It’s additionally 8% beneath the index’s common relationship to 2007.
The Golden State anxiousness is just not sudden contemplating Trump’s “America First” pondering runs counter to California’s globally oriented economic system. Heightened rigidity surrounding immigration enforcement and international commerce frictions are not any confidence boosters.
The general confidence index rose in July as a result of optimism for California’s future improved. One slice of the index – the “expectations” index – rose 9% in July.
However Californians are nonetheless fearful about what’s subsequent. This forward-looking index is down 32% from October and is nineteen% beneath common.
In the meantime, California’s view of present situations soured in July. The “present situation” slice of the arrogance index was off 4% for the month and is down 16% from October.
Nonetheless, after these drops, this yardstick of right now’s financial psyche stays 5% above its 19-year common.
Nationwide worries
The Golden State isn’t alone. Customers throughout the nation have equally combined emotions about their funds.
The nationwide confidence index rose 2% for July. It’s off 11% from October however stays 6% above common.
The seven different states tracked by the Convention Board additionally had divided opinions on the economic system.
Two state confidence indexes had good points from June:
Texas: Up 15% for July, rising 6% from October and 6% above common.
Michigan: Up 10% for July, rising 19% from October and 38% above common.
4 had dips in optimism:
Florida: Off 8% for July, down 11% from October however 6% above common.
Pennsylvania: Off 8% for July, down 9% from October however 6% above common.
Illinois: Off 6% for July, down 21% from October however 6% above common.
Ohio: Off 5% for July, down 7% from October and 10% above common.
And New York was flat for July. It’s off 13% from October however 17% above common.
