On Tuesday, Iowa Democrat Catelin Drey shocked Republicans by successful a deep-red state Senate seat, breaking the GOP’s supermajority in Des Moines.
Her 10-percentage-point victory in state Senate District 1 over Republican Christopher Prosch, in line with the unofficial election outcomes, is the newest in a run of Democratic particular election wins which can be rattling the GOP forward of subsequent 12 months’s midterms.
The district, anchored within the Sioux Metropolis space, had been solidly Republican. President Donald Trump carried it by 12 factors in 2024, in line with knowledge from The Downballot, and GOP state Sen. Rocky De Witt gained by 10 factors simply three years in the past, earlier than he died in June. Drey’s double-digit margin marks a 22-point swing from Trump’s outcome—an electoral earthquake in a district lengthy thought-about safely conservative.
This sort of shift is exactly what Republicans worry after they draw their districts. Even a small portion of that change may trigger their gerrymanders to crumble.
Drey will serve the remainder of De Witt’s time period, which runs by way of 2027, however the instant stakes are huge. Her victory, coupled with Democrat Mike Zimmer’s January flip, reduces the GOP’s edge within the Iowa state Senate to 33 to 17. Crucially, Republicans can not rubber-stamp Gov. Kim Reynolds’ judicial and cupboard picks, which require a two-thirds vote.
The upset displays a broader sample. In each prior Iowa particular election this 12 months, Democrats have outperformed 2024 outcomes. Within the 1st District, the place Trump and De Witt each hit 55%, Drey reversed the script.
However it wasn’t luck. The competition drew uncommon consideration, and Democrats swamped their opponent in fundraising. By mid-August, Drey had collected greater than $160,000 in comparison with Prosch’s $20,000. The nationwide events additionally pumped into tens of 1000’s of {dollars}, however the Democratic Nationwide Committee additionally deployed greater than 30,000 volunteers, which can have tipped the scales.
An individual waits to vote early in Des Moines, Iowa, final October.
Prosch leaned on the standard culture-war script, operating adverts of Drey with pink hair and calling her a radical who supported “open borders.” She disarmed the assault with humor.
“I think I looked great with pink hair, but the upkeep was exhausting,” she stated in a response advert. “My ‘kooky ideas’ are fully funding our public schools, making housing and child care more affordable, and putting more money back in the pockets of working Iowans.”
Now that they’ve misplaced, Republicans are scrambling to clarify away the defeat, blaming what they referred to as “a flood of national money.” However Drey’s skill to attach with voters proved much more decisive than exterior money.
In the meantime, Democrats celebrated.
“Catelin’s agenda of fully funding public schools, affordable childcare and housing, and putting money in the pockets of working Iowans is a clear rejection of the Republican agenda led by Kim Reynolds and the Senate Republicans that have failed Iowans,” stated state Senate Minority Chief Janice Weiner.
Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Marketing campaign Committee, framed the upset as a warning shot.
“As Trump and Republicans wreck the economy and erode democracy with power-grabbing schemes, Democrats’ special election wins should send a flashing warning to the GOP: voters are rejecting the failing MAGA agenda and leaving Republican candidates in the dust,” she added.
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa, proven final September.
Nationwide Democrats additionally weighed in.
“Iowans are seeing Republicans for who they are: self-serving liars who will throw their constituents under the bus to rubber stamp Donald Trump’s disastrous agenda—and they’re ready for change,” DNC Chair Ken Martin stated.
Prosch’s document didn’t assist. The media guide has come underneath fireplace for incendiary remarks, together with a 2022 comparability of abortion-rights supporters to Nazis. He additionally stated that ladies impregnated by rape or incest ought to be compelled to offer beginning.
Drey, founding father of the progressive grassroots group Mothers for Iowa and an worker at a advertising and marketing agency, supplied voters a stark distinction. Her marketing campaign rapidly turned a rallying level not only for Iowa Democrats but additionally for 3 contenders hoping to tackle Republican Sen. Joni Ernst subsequent 12 months. Nathan Sage, Josh Turek, and Zach Wahls, all operating for the state’s Democratic Senate nomination, joined her on the path in Sioux Metropolis.
Particular elections are sometimes unpredictable and have low voter turnout. Nonetheless, since Trump’s second time period started, Democrats have continued to win them. And together with his approval sinking nationally—and even dipping underwater in Iowa—Drey’s win in a pink patch of Iowa appears to be like much less like a fluke than a flashing signal that Republican dominance within the Hawkeye State is cracking.
