There’s a purpose for the fearsome redistricting battle raging throughout America. It’s about Democrats making an attempt to rein in Donald Trump and his rogue-elephant regime.
Or, when you’re the nation’s aspiring strongman, it’s about avoiding accountability and sanction.
That’s why Trump and fellow Republicans try to rig the midterm election, by gerrymandering congressional strains in hopes of boosting the GOP’s possibilities of protecting its tenuous maintain on the Home previous 2026.
California Democrats are looking for payback by redrawing the state’s congressional strains in hopes of swiping 5 or extra GOP-held seats.
Voters can have their say on the matter Nov. 4, after they resolve Proposition 50.
After all, there are two branches of Congress. Why, then, is there a lot give attention to the Home? Merely put, it’s due to the steep odds Democrats face making an attempt to win management of the Senate, that are someplace between slim and none — with slim final seen cinching his saddle earlier than cantering out of city.
Let’s take a second for a fast refresher.
Each two years, all 435 Home seats are on the poll. Senate phrases are staggered and run six years, so roughly a 3rd of the chamber’s 100 seats are up for a vote in every federal election. In 2026, there shall be 35 Senate contests.
Most gained’t be remotely aggressive.
Over earlier than they start
In reality, greater than two dozen of these races are successfully over earlier than they start, given the benefit one celebration holds over the opposite.
Mississippi, as an example, will ship a Democrat to the U.S. Senate the day that Delaware elects a Republican; each will happen proper after Trump and Adam Schiff get inked with matching “I Love L.A.” tattoos.
That leaves 9 Senate races which might be a minimum of considerably aggressive. Of these, three are thought of toss-ups: open-seat contests in Michigan and North Carolina and the race in Georgia, the place Democrat Jon Ossoff is looking for a second time period.
Democrats want to realize 4 seats to take management of the Senate, which means even when they win all three of these even-steven races — which is much from sure — they nonetheless must efficiently defend seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire and decide up a minimum of one different GOP-held seat.
That’s the place the going will get powerful.
Kamala Harris gained Maine, which suggests Republican Susan Collins could possibly be susceptible. However the five-term senator has repeatedly managed to hold on, even in good Democratic years.
The three different races are harder nonetheless.
Ohio was a serious Midwestern battleground, nevertheless it’s grown solidly Republican. Democrats landed their prized recruit, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who narrowly misplaced his 2024 reelection bid and would be the solely Democrat with a practical shot on the seat. Nonetheless, he’s going through an uphill battle within the particular election in opposition to Republican Jon Husted, an ex-lieutenant governor who was appointed to switch Vice President JD Vance.
In Iowa, the place Republican Joni Ernst is retiring, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson begins out the favourite in one other state that’s grown more and more crimson.
(Hinson, a USC grad and former KABC-TV intern, has taken to trash-talking the Golden State — “I don’t want to see the country look like California” — as a result of that’s what Republicans do nowadays.)
The place desires die
Which leaves Texas, land of shattered Democratic desires.
It’s been greater than three many years because the celebration has gained a statewide election. Ever since, Democrats have insisted that is the 12 months they’d finish their shedding streak.
They’ve tried numerous approaches. A “dream team” that consisted of a slate of Black, white and Latino nominees. A ticket topped by political superstar Wendy Davis, of filibuster fame. An out-of-nowhere phenom by the identify of Beto O’Rourke. All failed.
This time, Democrats are hoping for an help from the GOP.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn is looking for his fifth time period and faces the state’s lawyer normal, Ken Paxton, in a main that’s already grown fierce and ugly.
Paxton is MAGA all the way down to the soles of his ft, which might usually give him an enormous benefit in a GOP main. However his historical past — allegations of bribery and corruption, an impeachment trial, a messy divorce — have left him in dangerous odor with many Republicans.
The GOP’s Senate marketing campaign committee and Majority Chief John Thune have aggressively thrown their weight behind Cornyn, although Trump has to this point remained impartial.
Democrats would like to run in opposition to Paxton, given polls suggesting a aggressive race if he’s the nominee. First, although, they’ll must type out their very own main.
Colin Allred, the previous NFL linebacker who misplaced in November to Ted Cruz, is operating once more and faces James Talarico, a state consultant and seminarian from the Austin space, who’s grew to become a web-based sensation together with his godly persona and viral take-down of conservative pieties.
O’Rourke additionally hasn’t dominated out one other attempt for Senate.
Garry Mauro, a Democrat and former Texas land commissioner, is clear-eyed in assessing his celebration’s prospects.
“If you run on the right issues and don’t leave yourself a crazy radical … then I think you have a real chance of building a winning race,” he mentioned. However “to say this isn’t a leaning-R state would be Pollyannish, and I’m not Pollyannish.”
Which implies relying on the Lone Star state to ship a Democratic-run U.S. Senate is a bit like trusting a drunken gambler to protect and defend your hire cash.
That’s why Democrats are betting the Home in hopes of corralling Trump.
Mark Z. Barabak is a columnist for the Los Angeles Occasions, specializing in politics in California and the West. ©2025 Los Angeles Occasions. Distributed by Tribune Content material Company.
