On Saturday, as a strong winter storm headed towards the Bay Space, San Francisco residents obtained a twister warning from the Nationwide Climate Service. However no twister touched down. But 50 miles to the south, Scotts Valley, in Santa Cruz County, didn’t obtain a twister warning and a twister did hit the neighborhood, flipping seven vehicles, breaking bushes and inflicting 5 accidents.
What occurred?
Regardless of laptop fashions, radar techniques and trendy satellites, the occasion highlighted how predicting the exact location of maximum climate occasions nonetheless might be troublesome, consultants stated Monday.
Officers from the Nationwide Climate Service stated circumstances in San Francisco and Santa Cruz County had been very related Saturday. The storms got here from the identical system. Radar pictures confirmed related patterns. And the winds turned out to be related — with gusts to 80 mph toppling bushes at Golden Gate Park in San Francisco and the twister in Scotts Valley later within the day reaching 90 mph.
The twister by no means touched down in San Francisco. However the circumstances within the environment with wind pace and course had been proper, stated Brian Garcia, warning coordination meteorologist for Nationwide Climate Service within the Bay Space.
“San Francisco got lucky,” he stated.
The Nationwide Climate Service issued a twister warning for San Francisco at 5:51 a.m. Saturday, the primary in its historical past.
Tornadoes are uncommon however not remarkable in California. Since 1950, there have been 482, in keeping with federal data. The Central Valley receives greater than different areas. The Bay Space’s most up-to-date was in 2016, when a waterspout appeared throughout a storm over Lake Berryessa in Napa County. The East Bay had one in Brentwood in 2010. Gilroy had one in 2007.
Santa Cruz County has had 7 up to now 75 years: The newest occurred Jan. 6, 2019, when one tore a lot of the roof off the Dolphin Restaurant on the finish of the Santa Cruz Wharf earlier than dissipating. Usually they kind only a few miles offshore, giving little warning.
“These things have very short life spans,” stated Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Climate Providers in Half Moon Bay. “It’s not like you can track it for hours. That makes them very tough to warn people about.”
Tornadoes are much less more likely to happen in mountainous areas like Santa Cruz County, than in flat areas, as a result of mountains typically break up the swirling wind patterns. Provided that, and seeing no twister contact down in San Francisco, Garcia stated, the Nationwide Climate Service issued a extreme thunderstorm warning for Scotts Valley and far of Santa Cruz County as a substitute of a twister warning at 1:25 p.m. because the storm’s impacts moved south.
“A severe thunderstorm warning and a tornado warning both have similar calls to action,” he stated. “Seek shelter immediately. Severe thunderstorms can have winds as strong as tornadoes. The difference is they are in a straight line rather than spinning.”
One distinction is the kind of notification the general public receives.
Below federal guidelines established in 2012, the Nationwide Climate Service sends alerts to cell telephones of individuals residing within the affected space when there are twister warnings, together with different threats like hurricanes or tsunamis.
However in 2021 after getting complaints of too many mobile phone alerts from residents within the Midwest the place such storms are extra frequent, the company determined to solely ship them for essentially the most excessive varieties of extreme thunderstorms. There are three ranges, and the company’s meteorologists decided that Saturday’s storm seemed just like the lowest of the three.
In consequence, 1 million individuals in San Francisco had an alert from the federal Climate Emergency Alert service buzz their telephones Saturday morning. No person in Scotts Valley did, though some individuals reported cellphone warnings which seemingly got here from climate apps and different packages.
“We had a front-row seat,” stated Denise Fritsch, a saleswoman at Residence by Zinnia’s decor retailer on Mount Hermon Street subsequent to Goal, the place the injury was worst. “Our doors were sucked open, then slammed shut really quick. The wreaths went sailing.”
A couple of blocks away, the funnel cloud hit her husband’s automotive, breaking a window, mirror and tail mild however leaving him unharmed, Fritsch stated.
“If anybody knew it was coming they should’ve warned us,” she stated, “but I don’t know if anyone knew what was coming.”
Bellina Jones, 21, a shift lead at The Penny Ice Creamery close by, obtained wind warnings on her cellphone. She was at the back of the store washing a blender and got here to the entrance as a buyer stated, “Tornado, get down!” Jones stated she would have appreciated to obtain a twister warning on her cellphone, however famous the incident was very uncommon.
“I get why nobody would think to do that here,” she added.
Energy was again on Sunday, and by late Monday all 15 visitors lights that had been blown down had been anticipated to be again up, stated Scotts Valley Mayor Derek Timm. The principle injury was to Scotts Valley Center Faculty the place a fallen tree wrecked a number of school rooms, he stated.
“There’s still branches down, trees snapped off and ripped apart,” he stated. “But our businesses have reopened. Some lost thousands of dollars. It’s the holiday season. It would be wonderful if the greater community could help them out.”
The Scotts Valley twister was comparatively small. It was simply 30 yards broad and lasted 5 minutes, from 1:39 p.m. to 1:44 p.m, in keeping with the Nationwide Climate Service preliminary report. On a scale of 0 to five, it was a 1.
However Garcia stated the Nationwide Climate Service officers will consider to see if there’s something they need to do in a different way sooner or later. Null stated the company may wish to think about rising cellphone alerts for extreme thunderstorms in California.
“You have to pull the trigger sometimes not knowing if it is going to verify,” he famous, citing the tsunami warning two weeks in the past after a serious earthquake 40 miles off the Humboldt County coast. “You can quibble about the details after the fact. But it’s a much better mode of operation to be safe than sorry.”
Initially Revealed: December 16, 2024 at 3:27 PM PST
