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I’ve misplaced monitor of what number of occasions folks have requested if I will probably be glad when the election is over.
Reality be instructed, simply after the election is when the arduous stuff begins.
Election Day is Tuesday, however in actuality, that’s only the start of the method. It might take days to kind out who voters have chosen as president. Management of the Home is razor tight. It might boil right down to a handful of races determined by a grand complete of a number of thousand votes. So don’t for a second suppose we mechanically know which occasion will probably be within the majority as election officers kind all of that out. There’s a situation the place a skinny margin of contested seats within the Home might spring a number of weeks of challenges.
Furthermore, Article I, Part 5 of the Structure dictates that the Home and Senate “shall be the Judge of the elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members.” And it’s the brand new Home within the new Congress subsequent 12 months that may determine whether or not to seat folks if there’s a dispute.
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Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris (Getty Pictures)
In fact, that’s supplied the Home can elect a speaker when the brand new Congress is constitutionally mandated to start on Jan. 3. Don’t overlook that Home Republicans incinerated a complete of 27 days on two separate events to elect former Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and present Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
We’ll come again to that in a second.
Within the meantime, let’s run by way of among the hazards that would unfold after the ultimate poll is forged.
Let’s begin with once we may be taught which occasion controls both the Home or Senate.
Election Day fell on Nov. 8 for the 2022 midterms, but it surely wasn’t clear that Democrats held their Senate majority till late on the night of Nov. 12, when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., retained her seat.
Figuring out Home management took even longer in 2022. Do not forget that McCarthy touted the chance that Republicans may marshal as many as 50 seats. Republicans gained the Home by a thread, however the GOP majority was not clear till Nov. 16.
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Management of the Senate from the 2020 midterms wasn’t even established till 2021. It took till January and a pair of runoffs in Georgia for it to be clear that Democrats tied the Senate and thus seized the bulk due to Vice President Kamala Harris in her capability as president of the Senate.
These protracted election determinations should not a byproduct of current polarization and controversy.
Democrats captured the Senate within the 2006 midterms, but it surely wasn’t clear till two days after the election, as soon as Democratic challenger Jim Webb defeated incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen in Virginia.
It’s probably we’ll have readability on the Senate sooner relatively than later this 12 months. If Republicans get pleasure from a giant evening, who gained the Senate may very well be identified on election evening. That’s particularly if the GOP is en path to a 53- or 54-seat majority. But when aggressive Senate contests in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, Michigan, Nevada, Texas and elsewhere are all tight, it might take a number of days to find out which occasion has the bulk.
Regardless, the largest order of enterprise going through the Senate is who emerges as the brand new Republican chief.
Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is stepping down from his management publish in early January however remaining within the Senate. Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., former Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., are vying to succeed McConnell because the physique’s high Republican. However there’s chatter that Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., or different candidates might emerge.
The number of Senate Republican chief might hinge on whether or not Harris or former President Trump wins – or, if the GOP claims the Senate or fails to seize the bulk. A secret vote for GOP chief is slated for Nov. 13, and if it’s clear that Trump is headed to the White Home, his affect might sway who Republican senators choose as their subsequent chief.
Then there’s the Home.
Republicans maintain a slim, single-digit benefit within the Home proper now. There are greater than 30 seats in battleground districts that would swing the management in a single course or the opposite.
However when will we all know?
The Home Republican Convention convenes its management election on Nov. 13, and the Home Democratic Caucus additionally meets round that point. No matter if they’re within the majority or minority, Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., will lead his occasion within the new Congress. Jeffries is poised to ascend to the speakership subsequent 12 months if Democrats flip the Home.
However for the GOP, issues might get messy.
Which occasion controls the Home won’t be settled by the point Home Republicans maintain their management election. Republican Convention guidelines permit sure GOP candidates whose races haven’t been referred to as to return to Washington in November and December for the freshmen orientation and vote in these management elections. In different phrases, individuals who won’t finally develop into Home members might determine who the GOP picks for management posts and formally nominates because the Republican candidate for speaker on the ground Jan. 3.
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One senior Home Republican supply instructed Fox there may very well be a push to delay these management elections if management of the Home isn’t settled. This may very well be a difficulty if there’s a contingent of GOP candidates in uncalled races who might wield an excessive amount of affect within the personal balloting.
So right here’s the difficulty going through Johnson: If Republicans maintain the Home, and particularly in the event that they choose up a large chunk of seats, the Louisiana Republican in all probability returns to the speakership. A “President-elect Trump” would definitely bolster that situation. But when it’s a tiny majority, Johnson might win the nomination for speaker within the GOP convention however battle to prevail on the ground early subsequent 12 months.
Right here’s why: There’s a gaggle of three to maybe as many as 10 present Home Republicans who’ve an issue with Johnson. Johnson solely wants a easy majority of the Home Republican Convention to get the nomination for speaker and stand earlier than your entire Home in January.
It’s in regards to the math.
Let’s say Republicans have a small majority: 223 seats. Within the November convention vote, Johnson solely wants 112 votes to develop into the nominee for speaker. However when your entire Home convenes on Jan. 3, Johnson – or some other nominee – will want an outright majority of all members casting ballots for a candidate by title. So if the Home is at 435 and all members vote for somebody by title, the magic quantity is 218.
You see the issue.
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This is identical subject that vexed McCarthy and the opposite GOP nominees who did not develop into speaker final October.
Mockingly, it’s simpler for Johnson to develop into minority chief if Republicans misplaced their majority. That’s as a result of the minority chief simply wants nearly all of his or her convention or caucus. So let’s say the GOP is relegated to the minority with 217 seats. Johnson simply wants 109 votes to win the convention.
If there’s an issue electing a speaker on the ground in January, one ought to pray it’s wrapped up quick. That’s as a result of Congress should begin certifying the Electoral School on Jan. 6. After beginning its vote for speaker on Jan. 3, 2023, the Home didn’t elect McCarthy till the wee hours of Jan. 7. Any delay in electing a speaker would foment main points for certifying the electoral vote – particularly if the presidential race is contested.
Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell arrives on the U.S. Capitol for a gathering with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in regards to the conflict effort in opposition to Russia, on Sept. 26. (AP/J. Scott Applewhite)
The Home of Representatives can’t do something, together with swearing in members, till it elects a speaker. Interval. A struggle over the speakership might paralyze the Home and danger delaying the electoral vote depend. It is a nightmare situation that has the potential to eclipse the chaos of the Electoral School certification in 2021.
And if issues weren’t fraught sufficient, right here’s one other wild card: the federal government runs out of cash on Dec. 20.
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Johnson meandered by way of a bunch of interim spending payments from final fall till spring, flirting with a number of authorities shutdowns. The speaker ran the very same playbook that partially value McCarthy the speakership. Johnson enraged scores of conservatives by green-lighting a invoice to fund Ukraine and advancing an omnibus spending invoice within the spring.
A lot of conservatives have grievances with Johnson, however Johnson might face hassle if he makes an attempt to maneuver any invoice to avert a December shutdown that lacks the blessing of key conservatives. Granted, the sign-off on any spending plan by a “President-elect Trump” might defend Johnson, and if Trump is elected, he probably makes the decision on what he needs Johnson to do. The previous president’s warmth defend probably blunts any rebuke of Johnson.
That mentioned, a misstep by Johnson on the spending invoice might probably value him the speakership if the GOP holds the bulk. And if Republicans win the Home, Senate and White Home, don’t anticipate any assist from Democrats. Whereas within the minority, Home Democrats have carried gallons of water for Republicans. They’ve lugged quite a few must-pass payments to keep away from authorities shutdowns throughout the end line for almost two years. If the GOP attains unified authorities this fall, Democrats might push again from the desk within the lame-duck session and inform Home Republicans to determine it out themselves.
Heretofore, Home Republicans haven’t proven they will advance a spending invoice on their very own that might develop into regulation. That’s why there’s a danger of the brand new Congress starting with a authorities shutdown in January.
That’s precisely what occurred in late 2018, drifting into early 2019. The federal government was shuttered as a brand new Congress started that January.
So right here is the utter worst-case situation: a authorities shutdown, coupled with a fancy speaker’s election, thus sparking a delay in certification of the Electoral School within the shadow of a disputed presidential election.
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I’ll allow you to learn that each one once more to digest it.
So the campaigning and voting concludes subsequent week, however the hardest stuff is about to start.
