We’re not going to speak about vibes, power, or spirits.
We’re not going to name out curses, snakebites, or luck.
No, we’re going to speak about some Xs and Os right here as a result of, clearly, one thing is unsuitable with this 49ers staff that can’t be solely a problem of tradition or temperament.
These are the 4 greatest issues dealing with the 49ers on the sphere proper now, and my ideas on how this staff can right them — earlier than it’s too late:
They don’t have any final line of protection
» The 49ers have 4 safeties on their lively roster.
Not one in all them is a free security.
That, buddies, is an enormous drawback for a staff that ostensibly wished to play extra single-high security appears to be like.
You needn’t only a free security to try this, however a great one.
And but, Ji’Ayir Brown has confirmed incapable of holding down that function full-time — he was attacked relentlessly the primary three weeks of the season — and the triumvirate of George Odum (benched), Talanoa Hufanga (injured, benched), and Malik Mustapha (rookie) ought to all be thought-about field robust safeties. (Maybe Mustapha has extra, however that’s an enormous ask at this level in his profession.)
San Francisco 49ers’ Malik Mustapha (6) walks off the sphere after being defeated by the Arizona Cardinals throughout their NFL sport at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. The Arizona Cardinals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-23. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Space Information Group)
If my perception that safeties are future is, actually, right, I don’t just like the outlook for the 49ers. We frequently speak about the very best quarterback in any sport usually profitable the sport. Effectively, the Niners have been overwhelmed on the again finish of the protection the final 4 weeks — they’re 1-3 in these video games.
How can the Niners repair this? A commerce for a correct free security could be good, however given the market, the Niners’ present roster state and the necessity to maintain onto draft picks (it’s their solely supply of low cost labor transferring ahead) that’s an enormous ask.
So tactically, transferring to a two-high security system would possibly show advantageous, permitting the younger safeties to maintain the sport in entrance of them and hearth downhill in opposition to the run. That’s not a fix-all, nevertheless it may mitigate the injury given present circumstances.
It’s time to dump the idealism and grow to be pragmatic.
They don’t rating touchdowns within the purple zone
» The Niners can not rating within the purple zone. Is that an early-season blip — one thing that may right naturally over time — or a symptom of a bigger situation?
Can I say it’s a little bit of each?
The Niners usually are not an incompetent offensive staff, regardless of what some foaming-at-the-mouth of us would possibly say. They’re second within the NFL in red-zone alternatives, and there may be ample expertise to attain contained in the opponent’s 20-yard line.
But right here they’re, kicking brief subject objectives like they depend double and scoring a landing on solely half of their goal-to-goal sequence this season — thirty first within the league and a far cry from the 83 p.c landing clip they posted final season. (Shoutout to ESPN’s Nick Wagoner for first pulling these stats.)
So what’s the deal?
The absence of Christian McCaffrey looms massive. He was a man-to-man cheat code on a staff of zone-beating weapons — a necessity in tight-quarter fight.
Pair him with Deebo Samuel, and you’ve got a cheat code to the check. These are two gamers round whom defenses construct their sport plans. One participant’s motion earlier than the snap offers Purdy the mandatory zone-or-man indicator, and the second participant’s motion counters that protection.
Up to now, the Niners solely have one, and with no professional pass-catching menace within the backfield (a lot much less one that may be flexed out vast) and an offense that’s utilizing far much less stretch play-action due to elevated shotgun formations, it takes away from the offense’s dynamism. It’s simply guys versus guys in tight house, and that’s not Kyle Shanahan or the 49ers’ sport.
So what might be carried out?
McCaffrey can heal and play. That may be big.
However the Niners also needs to think about using Samuel within the backfield—a la 2021—extra usually, notably near the top zone within the meantime. That may get the protection spinning a bit. How a few shovel move? Only one.
Purdy mentioned Sunday he must be extra aggressive within the purple zone when throwing the ball. That may assist, to make sure.
And if McCaffrey isn’t coming again, discovering a real pass-catching again — a third-down, scat-back sort, a la Jet McKinnon — may do wonders. I don’t suppose Isaac Guerendo is the reply there however you may no less than strive it out within the meantime.
San Francisco 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk (11) walks off the sphere after being defeated by the Arizona Cardinals throughout their NFL sport at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. The Arizona Cardinals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-23. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Space Information Group)
They’ll’t win in opposition to man protection
» Samuel doesn’t separate in urgent man-to-man protection. By no means has, by no means will. Jauan Jennings can solely do it if he traces up in opposition to off-man protection, which he sees within the slot. George Kittle has to dam snap after snap for the sake of the outside-zone run sport.
On Sunday, the Niners ran a 3rd down the place each Ronnie Bell and Trent Taylor had been on the sphere. I’m positive the Cardinals weren’t too involved about being burned on that snap.
In fact, Brandon Aiyuk can win off the road of scrimmage, and he did, repeatedly, on Sunday, to the tune of 147 receiving yards, with practically 100 within the first quarter, when Arizona was virtually completely in man-to-man.
It highlights the wager the Cardinals made on Sunday. It’s the identical one the Chiefs made within the Tremendous Bowl — and the Rams and Patriots copied earlier this season:
If you happen to play man-to-man in opposition to the 49ers, you may mess up the receivers’ timing in a timing-based offense as a result of they don’t have pure separators. And sure, Aiyuk can get away from man-to-man protection, however the gamble these groups have made is that No. 1, he’s not at full pace this season (Arizona came upon the onerous manner Aiyuk, actually, is again in type), and No. 2, that the Niners’ offensive line isn’t ok to permit Purdy the time and home windows to take benefit (that is how the Chiefs gained).
So sure, the Niners would possibly choose up 15-, 25-, 35-yard chunks with Aiyuk, however these would be the exceptions. Man-to-man schemes additionally enable groups to stack the field to promote out in opposition to the run — one thing that was apparent early Sunday.
Purdy noticed all this coming. When requested this week about what he’s seeing from opposing groups.
“I do feel like there may be a theme of man coverage,” he mentioned. “We’ve just got to beat the guy in front of us, and then, for me as a quarterback, I’ve got to be accurate with the ball, and we’ve got to execute.”
“That’s football at its finest… I feel like we may see that a little bit more, but at the same time, you never know.”
However now the Niners do know. Not each staff will need to play man-to-man in opposition to San Francisco, however the ideas would be the similar: If you happen to pressure the Niners right into a boom-or-bust offense, they may usually go bust.
So, how does San Francisco repair this?
It feels ridiculous to strain rookie vast receiver Ricky Pearsall, however he appears to be like like somebody who can separate on the NFL degree. His inclusion within the lineup would give the Niners two such receivers and maybe change the paradigm for defenses.
In any other case, Purdy must proceed channeling his internal Russell Wilson and lengthening performs together with his toes, giving receivers extra time to search out some separation and himself extra time to search out them.
They’ll’t cease the run
» Outdoors of a commerce for a two-gap-stuffing defensive sort out, the Niners need to journey with what they’ve on the defensive position.
Nevertheless it appears prudent to commerce out linebacker De’Vondre Campbell for Dee Winters. The latter won’t know what he’s doing on the market, however he makes up for it with aggression and pace. The alternative is true of Campbell, whose misplaced steps are repeatedly attacked by opposing offensive coordinators. It doesn’t matter if you already know what to do when you can’t do it.
With just one apply earlier than Thursday’s sport in Seattle, I don’t suppose you may make the transfer proper now, however the mini-bye going into the Kansas Metropolis sport is the right time to make the swap.
Initially Revealed: October 7, 2024 at 4:35 p.m.
