SANTA CLARA — The New England Patriots aren’t going anyplace at their present tempo of 13 factors per sport, however that isn’t the quantity that has 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan involved.
Of their first two video games — a win over Cincinnati and an time beyond regulation loss to Seattle — the Patriots ran the ball 75 instances. The yardage in these video games (355 yards) is nearly superfluous. Any crew that may run the ball that many instances in two video games is to be feared.
There are extra statistics than ever obtainable within the analytics age. Yards after the catch, yards after contact, air yards on every cross. Separation is calculated on each play between receivers and defensive backs. There are formulation and knowledge for absolutely anything. The 49ers have folks on the payroll that take note of all of it.
However for those who really need an indicator as to which crew is getting the higher of issues the place the 49ers are involved, take a look at speeding makes an attempt. Not even the yardage, a lot because the try to run.
If the 49ers (1-2) run the ball greater than 30 instances in opposition to the Patriots Sunday at Levi’s Stadium, they’ll in all probability win. In the event that they don’t, and the Patriots (1-2) get into 30-plus territory, it’s a recipe for a 3rd catastrophe in 4 video games.
The principles favor passing offenses greater than ever, nevertheless it’s clear that abandoning the run, both by means of sport circumstance or play-selection, is an issue for a crew coached by Shanahan.
Since 2021, the 12 months the 49ers re-entered the NFL stratosphere as a crew to be reckoned with, they’re 33-3 in video games with 30 or extra speeding makes an attempt and 6-1 within the playoffs. When the 49ers don’t run the ball 30 instances throughout that span, they’re 22-28 and 2-3 within the postseason — together with two Tremendous Bowl losses to the Chiefs.
The 49ers misplaced for simply the third time since 2019 with 30 or extra rushes (31 carries for 124 yards) in final week’s 27-24 loss to the Rams, though it’s value noting that 10 of these rushes (for 41 yards) got here from quarterback Brock Purdy on designed cross performs.
By three video games, Jordan Mason, the lead again within the absence of Christian McCaffrey, is second within the NFL with 324 yards and leads the league with 67 carries. In addition to Purdy, no different 49er aside from Deebo Samuel has 10 carries.
Shanahan talks usually of the significance of speeding makes an attempt, which has some followers questioning why he merely doesn’t hand the ball off time and time once more till he reaches 30. Shanahan’s spouse Mandy, who apparently shares his propensity for being a smart-aleck, has requested him why he merely doesn’t open a sport with 20 straight runs after one in every of his frequent press convention briefings on the significance of speeding makes an attempt.
Thirty rushes is one thing that occurs as a result of a whole lot of issues go proper. It means the offense is changing third downs, giving the chance for extra speeding performs. It means the protection is getting off the sphere on third down, which ends up in extra speeding performs. It means there’s often a lead concerned and a need to kill the clock.
Shanahan says he doesn’t lecture by way of energy level, however will sometimes stress in pregame the necessity for speeding performs, whereas on the identical time understanding it’s a operate of all 53 gamers.
“That’s why I say it usually to the team as a challenge,” Shanahan mentioned. “Our goal in normal situations is to be 50-50 (in terms of run-pass). But when you get over 30 carries, it’s rarely because the offense is dominating. It’s usually that all three phases are and the way the game goes.”
Deebo Samuel (1) has 10 carries for 13 yards from scrimmage in two video games for the 49ers. (Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Space Information Group) Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Space Information Group
The explanation Shanahan is so extremely considered a quarterbacks coach is as a result of his groups can run the ball with inside and out of doors zone and the ensuing play-action and bootleg alternatives that include it. These working performs function a boxer’s left jab — even when they don’t at all times discover the mark — to arrange a run-suspecting opponent for a quick-strike cross. It gives the stability Purdy must go from superb to nice at soccer’s most necessary place.
Upon taking the job with the Raiders in 1998 with the fame of being a cross offense and quarterback guru, Jon Gruden stunned reporters by answering his personal query: “You know why it’s great to run the ball for four yards on first down? Because you can run it again.”
The fixed risk of the run, and the willingness to make use of it, builds a psychological and bodily toughness whereas carrying down a protection. The primary time the 49ers made the playoffs below Shanahan, they ran the ball 89 instances in one-sided wins over Minnesota and Inexperienced Bay the place Jimmy Garoppolo was a handoff machine earlier than getting 22 rushes in a 31-20 loss to the Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl LIV.
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It’s that type of sport that has Shanahan apprehensive about New England. If the Patriots can run the ball sufficient instances, it means they’re stopping the run themselves, getting off the sphere on third down, and it doesn’t matter if quarterback Jacoby Brissett is spending many of the sport handing off to energy backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson.
“The way they play defense, their two running backs, the way they’re committed to the run, the type of quarterback they have, I think that makes them a very good team,” Shanahan mentioned.
And the less quantity of instances the 49ers run the ball, the higher the Patriots will likely be.
