Donald Trump’s return to workplace has been an abject catastrophe.
The economic system is tanking because of the president’s idiotic tariffs. Households are being torn aside by his merciless Immigration and Customs Enforcement goon squad. Trump is destroying the White Home to show it right into a dupe of his cheesy Mar-a-Lago membership, all whereas paying for it with bribes from his billionaire buddies. And his corrupt pardons have principally given Republicans carte blanche to commit crimes and fraud as a result of they know Trump will guarantee they by no means face accountability.
In brief, issues actually are as terrible as they really feel.
However there are some issues we are able to nonetheless be pleased about this Thanksgiving when wanting on the state of the nation via a glass half-full lens:
1. Trump’s approval score is falling
When Trump took the oath of workplace once more in January, his approval score stood at 52%—a low quantity to make sure however one which felt grim in that greater than half of the nation was supportive of the prison thug.
However 10 months in, Trump’s approval has slid to an abysmal 40%, in line with a mean from FiftyPlusOne, a polling aggregator launched by former staffers of the now-defunct FiveThirtyEight.
That quantities to a 12-point slide in approval since he took workplace—a large quantity in a brief period of time, and one we are able to see decline even additional as his MAGA base seems to be splintering over his dealing with of the Epstein recordsdata and the truth that the economic system seems to be on a harmful downward trajectory.
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In sum, Trump just isn’t invincible, as he gave the impression to be in January. And his regular stream of lawless and out-of-touch actions is inflicting the coalition that put him again within the White Home to splinter and flee.
2. Trump is an albatross for Republicans within the 2026 midterms
With Trump’s approval 16 factors underwater a yr out from the 2026 midterm elections, you higher consider Republicans are in for a world of harm subsequent November if his numbers don’t enhance.
Already, we noticed Trump’s low approval score harm the GOP in crucial elections in New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and California earlier this month.
Polling vastly underestimated Democrats’ efficiency in Virginia and New Jersey, as pollsters assumed the voters can be extra GOP-friendly—probably as a result of that they had post-traumatic stress dysfunction from underestimating Republicans when Trump was on the poll.
However Trump’s unpopularity dragged GOP candidates down, with New Jersey’s Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill outperforming polls by almost 8 factors. Sherrill gained by almost 14 factors, whereas the polling common had her up by 6 on Election Day.
If Trump continues to be as unpopular as he’s now, that very same final result may unfold throughout the nation within the midterms.
Already, polling averages present voters need Democrats to regulate Congress after the 2026 elections by a 4-point margin.
Even Republicans are sounding the alarm about their electoral prospects.
“I don’t see how we win the midterms on the course that we’ve been set on so far,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) instructed Politico earlier this month.
3. Trump’s 2024 coalition is falling aside
Trump gained the 2024 election because of features he made with Black, Hispanic, and younger voters—all of whom historically backed Democrats for president by giant margins.
Pundits questioned if that might be a everlasting shift for the Republican Get together, which might make Democrats’ probabilities at electoral victory in future elections all of the tougher.
Already, polling has confirmed younger, Black, and Hispanic voters turning away from Trump.
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However outcomes out of Virginia and New Jersey definitively confirmed that these voters swung arduous again to Democrats in only one yr—an indication that 2024 was an exception and never the rule.
For instance, a New York Occasions evaluation of the New Jersey gubernatorial election discovered that Hispanic areas of the state shifted towards Democrats greater than another areas in New Jersey.
From the report:
The closely Hispanic areas that shifted probably the most to the left in 2025 have been nearly a mirror picture of the locations that had swung the farthest to the correct in 2024. The end result means that President Trump’s surge of help amongst Hispanic voters final yr could have been fleeting, or at the least not transferable to different candidates in his occasion.
Exit polling from the Virginia and New Jersey elections additionally confirmed the Democratic candidates successful 70% and 69% of younger voters, respectively. That’s a significant enchancment for Democrats, who gained simply 54% of younger voters in 2024, in line with nationwide exit polling.
4. Democrats are aggressively combating Trump’s midterm election rigging
When Trump efficiently pressured Texas Republicans into redrawing their congressional maps to axe as many as 5 Democratic lawmakers within the 2026 midterms, issues seemed perilous for Democrats’ probabilities at successful again the Home majority.
However Democrats’ aggressive techniques—in addition to some luck with authorized rulings—will probably deliver the redistricting battle to a draw.
Gov. Gavin Newsom addresses reporters after signing a package deal of measures to redraw California’s congressional districts on Aug. 21.
A authorized ruling in Utah gained Democrats one seat, and Maryland is at present debating whether or not to redraw their maps.
Rating one for Democrats combating fireplace with fireplace.
5. A number of the worst individuals in Congress is not going to be returning after the midterm elections.
It doesn’t matter what occurs within the 2026 midterms, a number of the most abhorrent and contemptible legislators is not going to be within the chamber when the brand new Congress is sworn in come January 2027.
New York GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, a loyal Trump toady, is working a destined-to-fail bid for governor within the Empire State, which makes her ineligible to run for her Home seat on the similar time.
Don’t let the door hit ya, Nancy Mace.
South Carolina GOP Rep. Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial bid within the Palmetto State precludes her from working for reelection to the Home. Meaning even when she wins the gubernatorial main—which at this level is an open query as her private conduct and scandals spiral uncontrolled—she is not going to be returning to Capitol Hill.
Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona—a Trump stooge and one of many masterminds behind Trump’s failed effort to steal the 2020 election—is working for governor of the Grand Canyon State, so he gained’t be again on Capitol Hill.
A handful of different far-right nuts, together with Reps. Chip Roy of Texas, Mike Collins of Georgia, Byron Donalds of Florida, and Ralph Norman of South Carolina, are additionally looking for greater workplace, thus ending their congressional careers come subsequent January.
And two of the dumbest members of the Senate—Tommy Tuberville of Alabama and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee—are additionally looking for to develop into governor of their respective states, which means they are going to be saying sayonara to Capitol Hill.
