The Large Ten energy rankings will probably be revealed weekly all through the common season utilizing a mixture of data-driven perception and unapologetic subjectivity. With 18 groups, 9 convention video games and wild variations within the high quality of non-conference schedules, comparative evaluation is an inherently flawed strategy. Which is okay, as a result of the Hotline hasn’t been incorrect about something in a minimum of 90 minutes.
(Final week’s rankings are right here.)
The Large Ten wolfed its personal in Week 11 in a style harking back to the previous Pac-12, or the present Large 12.
Washington’s face plant at Wisconsin and Iowa’s come-from-ahead loss to Oregon eradicated the Huskies and Hawkeyes from the School Soccer Playoff race.
That leaves 5 groups in rivalry.
Two are locks: Ohio State and Indiana.
One is properly positioned: Oregon.
Two are on the bubble: USC and Michigan.
With 4 weeks of play remaining, 5 groups in rivalry and 7 at-large bids out there, there are far too many permutations to fairly tackle on this house.
So let’s concentrate on one situation: the nightmare.
There’s a believable sequence of outcomes that would go away the Large Ten with two playoff contributors, Ohio State and Indiana. One would seize the automated berth by profitable the convention championship; the opposite would take the at-large route because the runner-up.
How would the two-bid situation grow to be actuality?
It solely takes 4 poorly timed losses:
— Oregon loses two of three in opposition to Minnesota (6-3), USC (7-2) and Washington (6-3).
— Michigan loses one among three to Northwestern (5-4), Maryland (4-5) or Ohio State (9-0).
— USC loses one among three to Iowa (6-3), Oregon (8-1) or UCLA (3-6).
The chance of all three steps unfolding is lower than 50 % — considerably much less, to make sure. But it surely’s additionally not zero.
Clearly, there’s no coverage stopping three-loss groups from receiving at-large bids. And this is able to be the yr, what with the choice committee altering its analysis course of to emphasise high quality wins and schedule energy.
However those self same adjustments make it extra probably that the three-loss participant would come from the SEC, which is clearly deeper than the Large Ten. (Control Texas, particularly if the Longhorns break up their upcoming showdowns with Georgia and Texas A&M.)
Now, to be clear: We aren’t suggesting two bids is the almost certainly consequence for the Large Ten when the 12-team subject is introduced Dec. 7. In actual fact, the convention has a greater likelihood to ship 4 groups into the CFP than two.
However as a result of the two-bid situation is throughout the vary of semi-reasonable outcomes — and since it could come as a shock to followers from coast to coast — the Hotline believes it’s price addressing.
We wish readers to be ready for each eventuality, together with the Large Ten’s two-bid nightmare situation.
To the facility rankings …
(All instances Pacific)
1. Ohio State (9-0/6-0)
Consequence: received at Purdue 34-10
Subsequent up: vs. UCLA (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Remark: The Buckeyes are a lock for the CFP even when they lose to Michigan. However what in the event that they lose to Michigan after which Indiana within the Large Ten title recreation? Nonetheless a lock. (Earlier: 2)
2. Indiana (10-0/7-0)
Consequence: received at Penn State 27-24
Subsequent up: vs. Wisconsin (9 a.m. on Large Ten Community)
Remark: Hours after Fernando Mendoza led a game-winning drive, his successor in Berkeley, freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, beat Louisville in additional time. (Earlier: 1)
3. Oregon (8-1/5-1)
Consequence: received at Iowa 18-16
Subsequent up: vs. Minnesota (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Remark: We have been struck by what number of media members expressed shock that the Geese outplayed Iowa on the line of scrimmage and by what number of Oregon followers expressed shock that the media was stunned. (Earlier: 3)
4. USC (7-2/5-1)
Consequence: beat Northwestern 38-17
Subsequent up: vs. Iowa (12:30 p.m. on Large Ten Community)
Remark: Sure, the faux punt was a fantastic play that ought to have been held for the second half of a recreation the Trojans have been in peril of dropping. (Earlier: 4)
5. Michigan (7-2/5-1)
Consequence: didn’t play
Subsequent up: at Northwestern (9 a.m. on Fox)
Remark: In the meantime, a key growth involving the Wolverines is unfolding off the sphere: The Large Ten has reportedly renewed its push for personal capital. Will Michigan and USC cave, or stand sturdy? (Earlier: 5)
6. Iowa (6-3/4-2)
Consequence: misplaced to Oregon 18-16
Subsequent up: at USC (12:30 p.m. on Large Ten Community)
Remark: With a playoff bid spoiled, will the Hawkeyes grow to be a playoff spoiler? A victory within the Coliseum could be unhealthy information for the Large Ten. (Earlier: 8)
7. Nebraska (7-3/4-3)
Consequence: received at UCLA 28-21
Subsequent up: idle
Remark: Information from the longer term: Cornhuskers quarterback TJ Lateef enters the switch portal. (Simply kidding … probably not.) (Earlier: 10)
8. Washington (6-3/3-3)
Consequence: misplaced at Wisconsin 13-10
Subsequent up: vs. Purdue (4 p.m. on FS1)
Remark: The Huskies misplaced to an opponent whose revolving door of quarterbacks accomplished 5 passes for twenty-four yards. Take into consideration that for a minute … or a couple of days … or without end. (Earlier: 6)
9. Illinois (6-3/3-3)
Consequence: didn’t play
Subsequent up: vs. Maryland (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Remark: With the Terps, Wisconsin and Northwestern left to play, the Illini might — and maybe ought to — end the common season with 9 wins. Add a bowl victory and it could be 10 for the second consecutive season. (Earlier: 7)
10. Minnesota (6-3/4-2)
Consequence: didn’t play
Subsequent up: at Oregon (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Remark: With two weeks to organize and the Geese coming off the thriller at Iowa, the Gophers are venturing to Eugene on the excellent time. However can they take benefit? (Earlier: 9)
11. Northwestern (5-4/3-3)
Consequence: misplaced at USC 38-17
Subsequent up: vs. Michigan (9 a.m. on Fox)
Remark: We talked about this final week, however it’s price repeating: Good likelihood the Wildcats stay caught on 5 wins by way of the stretch run and are house for the vacations. (Earlier: 11)
12. UCLA (3-6/3-3)
Consequence: misplaced to Nebraska 28-21
Subsequent up: at Ohio State (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Remark: The transfer to SoFi Stadium for house video games is reportedly near a actuality. Though the Hotline wonders if the Bruins are enjoying the leverage recreation with the Rose Bowl to safe extra favorable phrases with their lease. (Earlier: 12)
13. Rutgers (5-5/2-5)
Consequence: beat Maryland 35-20
Subsequent up: idle
Remark: Beat Penn State within the finale and the Scarlet Knights will safe their third convention win, a .500 total file and a bowl berth — all with one of many worst defenses within the nation. (Earlier: 15)
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14. Maryland (4-5/1-5)
Consequence: misplaced at Rutgers 35-20
Subsequent up: at Illinois (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Remark: Mike Locksley’s seat warmth is rising, though the Terps must take freshman quarterback Malik Washington’s scenario under consideration have been they to think about a training change. (Earlier: 14)
15. Michigan State (3-6/0-6)
Consequence: didn’t play
Subsequent up: vs. Penn State (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Remark: The bye week got here and went with out information, so the Spartans are clearly dedicated to Jonathan Smith … for a couple of extra weeks. (Earlier: 13)
16. Penn State (3-6/0-6)
Consequence: misplaced to Indiana 27-24
Subsequent up: at Michigan State (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Remark: The Nittany Lions have regarded just like the Nittany Lions have been alleged to search for two of their 36 quarters this season: The fourth in opposition to Oregon and the fourth in opposition to Indiana. They usually couldn’t shut on both event. (Earlier: 16)
17. Wisconsin (3-6/1-5)
Consequence: beat Washington 13-10
Subsequent up: at Indiana (9 a.m. on Large Ten Community)
Remark: So many statistical oddities emerged Saturday night, however one among our favorites is that this: The 13 factors mainly doubled Wisconsin’s complete from the earlier three video games mixed (seven). Unimaginable. (Earlier: 18)
18. Purdue (2-8/0-7)
Consequence: misplaced to Ohio State 34-10
Subsequent up: at Washington (4 p.m. on FS1)
Remark: Barry Odom couldn’t presumably remorse taking the job in West Lafayette, proper? … Nah. (Earlier: 17)
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