Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks in opposition to the purpose unfold, printed Thursdays all through the common season with a deal with the highest video games nationally and essentially the most intriguing matchups throughout the West. Final week, we have been 6-5. Strains are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for leisure functions solely … until they aren’t.
The primary matchup inside an uncommon association will unfold in fully standard trend. No tips. No problems. Nothing as odd because the home-and-home sequence itself.
Washington State will smother Oregon State on Saturday afternoon within the first of two November matchups between the Pac-12 holdovers.
The Beavers are marginally higher than they appeared underneath coach Trent Bray, who was fired after an 0-7 begin. However they aren’t practically ok to deal with WSU. Or the purpose unfold.
The Cougars are favored by 3.5 factors, however the betting line must be twice that quantity. And it will be if you happen to merely take away two quarters from their season — two quarters which have zero relevance to the present state of play.
WSU has allowed 197 factors to this point, or 24.6 per sport, which is 73rd in main faculty soccer. Center-of-the-pack territory.
However 56 factors have are available in two disastrous quarters after they allowed 28 in every: The fourth in opposition to Washington and the second in opposition to North Texas.
In different phrases, 28.4 % of the factors allowed by WSU’s protection have are available in 6.3 % of the quarters performed.
Within the different 30 quarters, together with 4 every in opposition to No. 7 Mississippi and No. 15 Virginia, the Cougars have allowed a complete of 141 factors, or 4.7 per quarter.
That quarterly complete multiplied by 4 provides as much as 18.8 factors per sport, which might rank twenty fourth nationally and supply a completely totally different perspective on Saturday’s matchup. The purpose unfold wouldn’t be 3.5 factors however, fairly, nearer to a landing.
We aren’t suggesting the Cougars (4-4) would have crushed Washington and North Texas if you happen to eliminated these two epically poor quarters.
We’re suggesting the fourth in opposition to UW and the second in opposition to North Texas will not be remotely related to how WSU matches up with the Beavers (1-7).
The Huskies have next-level expertise in comparison with OSU and, when in rhythm, possess some of the dynamic offenses anyplace. (They’re averaging 35.5 factors per sport. The Beavers are averaging 21.1.)
Nor does the Cougar collapse in opposition to North Texas have any connection to this weekend as a result of their quarterbacks had three turnovers in these forgettable quarter-hour and none of them have been dedicated by the quarterback who will begin in Corvallis.
Zevi Eckhaus is QB1, as he has been for the previous 5 video games. Had coach Jimmy Rogers named Eckhaus the starter previous to the season — as he clearly ought to have — the journey to North Texas might need turned out otherwise.
Regardless, the 2 horrible quarters skewing WSU’s defensive statistics have zero connection to the defensive efficiency in each different quarter this season.
The Cougars held Mississippi, which scored 35 factors in opposition to Georgia and 34 in opposition to Oklahoma, to 24.
They held Virginia, which scored 30 in opposition to Louisville, to 22.
They shut down San Diego State, which is at the moment ripping via the Mountain West.
They got here near shutting out Toledo, which is in the midst of the MAC.
Eliminated two irrelevant quarters from the info utilized by Las Vegas oddsmakers and the Cougars can be favored by significantly greater than 3.5 factors.
They may win by significantly extra, as effectively.
To the picks …
Season file: 46-48-1
5-star particular: 4-5
(All occasions Pacific)
Vanderbilt (+2.5) at Texas
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ABC
Remark: The Commodores are 6-2 in opposition to the unfold this season and simply beat LSU and Missouri in consecutive video games. The Longhorns are 2-6 in opposition to the unfold and contemporary off slim wins over lowly Kentucky and Mississippi State. No purpose to over-think the state of affairs. Choose: Vanderbilt
ASU (+7.5) at Iowa State
Kickoff: 10 a.m. on TNT
Remark: Each groups are coming off gut-punch losses to Houston (ASU) and BYU (Iowa State) and at risk of turning into irrelevant within the Massive 12 race. However just one — the house crew — may have its beginning quarterback out there Saturday. We might really feel higher if the unfold was a flat 7 however will aspect with the Cyclones anyhow. Choose: Iowa State
Fresno State (+17.5) at Boise State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FS1
Remark: The Hotline is satisfied first-year coach Matt Entz will information the Bulldogs to raised days. However they’re struggling in the meanwhile with back-to-back lopsided losses, and Boise State is rolling. Choose: Boise State
Pittsburgh (-14.5) at Stanford
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ACC Community
Remark: Stanford is undefeated at house with wins over Boston Faculty, San Jose State and Florida State. Granted, the Panthers characterize a better stage of competitors, nevertheless it’s an extended journey and they’re headed right into a bye week (with Notre Dame on the opposite aspect of their break). Looks like a entice for the guests. Choose: Stanford
Texas Tech (-7) at Kansas State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Remark: Quarterback Behren Morton is anticipated again from harm this week because the Pink Raiders take a harmful journey to Manhattan, the place KSU has gained traction following its gradual begin. Including to the problem: Texas Tech has a showdown with undefeated BYU subsequent week and might be in peek-ahead mode. Choose: Kansas State
Virginia (-4.5) at Cal
Kickoff: 12:45 p.m. on ESPN2
Remark: The Hotline sometimes sides with the Bears as underdogs, particularly at house, however we’ve got seen too little from them in current weeks to have any religion they’ll execute successfully on both aspect of the ball. The Cavaliers are 10 factors higher than any of the groups which have given Cal suits these days. Choose: Virginia
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Arizona (-4.5) at Colorado
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
Remark: There are extra causes to favor Arizona than Colorado. However we will’t choose the Wildcats to win on the street in convention play till we see them win on the street in convention play, irrespective of how dangerous the opponent appeared final week. (And the Buffaloes appeared dangerous.). Choose: Colorado
Washington State (-3.5) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS
Remark: We suspect the Beavers will swap quarterbacks, from Maalik Murphy to Gabarri Johnson, who performed effectively in opposition to Lafayette. (Interim coach Robb Akey was non-committal when requested earlier this week.) That might complicate issues for WSU, at the least for the primary half. Choose: Washington State
USC (-6.5) at Nebraska
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Remark: Given how they’ve carried out in similar conditions, the Hotline isn’t certain how anybody can belief the Trojans as a street favourite throughout the Rockies in opposition to a top quality opponent. (We actually don’t.) Because the begin of final season, they’ve proven an incredible knack for locating methods to lose video games they need to win. Choose: Nebraska
Cincinnati (+10.5) at Utah
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Remark: The Utes have smashed each crew they’ve confronted this season … besides the great ones. Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby, a frontrunner for Massive 12 Offensive Participant of the Yr, will just do sufficient to maintain his crew within the sport lengthy sufficient to cowl a ramification that feels about 4 factors too excessive. Choose: Cincinnati
Straight-up winners: Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Boise State, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Virginia, Colorado, Washington State, Nebraska and Utah
5-star particular: Nebraska. Neglect the purpose unfold. The Cornhuskers (6-2) are merely higher than USC and can win outright.
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