No state has been extra maligned by Republicans, particularly by President Trump, than the golden one. Harris, in an abbreviated marketing campaign the place she was painted as a “radical California liberal,” misplaced to Trump in November by a slender vote margin, however a sweep of crimson states.
At a time when the nation stays deeply divided between city and rural voters, and Trump’s affect over the Republican get together continues unabated, is California’s political baggage too heavy for each of them? Can their private manufacturers in a nationwide marketing campaign supersede the weighted label of a California Democrat to in the end enchantment to voters within the Heartland?
“They absolutely have a chance,” stated Thad Kousser, UC San Diego political science professor. “Polls have consistently shown that they’re the two candidates on the top of people’s minds right now. Now that doesn’t mean that they’re the true favorites, but I think each is a political heavyweight who has a real opportunity here.”
Political science professor David McCuan of Sonoma State will not be so certain.
“It’s hard to see a Californian winning the hearts and minds of voters in three key battlegrounds that you have to flip to win, which are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,” McCuan stated. “Those three states have gone with the winner every presidential election together since 1992.”
So what’s it going to take?
“Lightning in a bottle,” McCuan stated.
“Possibly,” Harris informed the BBC when requested if she is likely to be president in the future. Though she hasn’t determined to run, she stated, “I am not done. I have lived my entire career as a life of service and it’s in my bones.”
Nonetheless, the potential for a Golden State match-up between dueling political cousins presents fascinating dynamics for each a Democratic presidential main in addition to the overall election, ought to one in all them get that far.
“It’s almost impossible to see a situation in which they both end up in competition,” stated Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at UC Berkeley and USC. “One of them would end up leaving the race fairly quickly. There’s not enough room for both.”
They every face separate challenges. Harris, who not too long ago launched her memoir “107 Days” explaining her failed presidential marketing campaign, should persuade voters why she deserves one other probability.
“Democrats are going to want to make it very much a change election,” stated Invoice Whalen, a Hoover Institute distinguished coverage fellow. “They’re going to want to find a shiny new object to rally behind. She is clearly not that.”
As a lot as persona seems to rule the day — Trump is a New York billionaire developer whose bombastic type captured the souls of discontented rural People — the 2028 presidential race would possibly come right down to easy, timeworn financial forces.
In every of the final three elections, the financial fashions that studied the place the financial system was going and whether or not folks wished change all accurately predicted a Trump victory in 2016, a Biden victory in 2020 and a Trump re-election victory in 2024, stated Kousser of UC San Diego.
“Candidates have to play the economic hand that they’re dealt,” Kousser stated. “Voters may well want to see a change in the direction of the country in 2028 and turn to a Democrat, even if that Democrat is someone who comes with the baggage of being from California.”
