David HaleAug 7, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Shut
Faculty soccer reporter.
Joined ESPN in 2012.
Graduate of the College of Delaware.
If there’s one factor we’ve realized from the talk among the many Huge Ten, SEC, ACC and Huge 12 over the way forward for the Faculty Soccer Playoff, it’s that committees are terrible. They get it incorrect practically yearly even if they’ve principally gotten it proper.
After all, Prime 25 lists aren’t any higher. You understand who votes in these? Reporters and coaches. Reporters clearly don’t know ball, and coaches don’t have the time to look at the video games. We are able to’t belief them both.
There was a time once we entrusted computer systems with assembling a correct rating of groups. The BCS crunched the numbers primarily based on some nebulous inputs and spat out the outcomes. And whereas it’d really feel as if ChatGPT may step in now and grow to be a impartial arbiter, it might even be yet another step towards our eventual demise as a species. If people can’t rank school soccer groups, it’s only a matter of time earlier than we’re all managed by a sentient model of these espresso supply drones.
No, there’s actually only one sincere approach to consider school soccer’s 136 FBS groups, and that’s to type by means of all the information, speak to a number of coaches and gamers and analysts, after which unilaterally put them into tiers.
And with that, we provide the most official, guaranteed-to-be-accurate, tiered preseason rating for the 2025 season.
Leap to a piece:Cream of the crop | Groups which are scorching | Huge Ten’s ticking clocksRoom for enchancment | Might be talked into them
Tier 1a: An amazing matchup for Week 1 and/or the championship recreation (two groups)
Ohio StateTexas
Final season, Ohio State received a nationwide championship and, based on nearly each coach we’ve requested, the Buckeyes had been probably the most proficient crew within the nation all alongside. Solely, if the playoff had waited yet another yr to broaden, Ohio State would’ve missed out, and Ryan Day may’ve been on the lookout for a job.
There’s a enjoyable thought experiment to be performed with these info in thoughts: Did increasing the playoff give extra groups a chance to win all of it, or did it merely make sure that the most effective groups wouldn’t miss their probability attributable to one thing fluky (or, in Ohio State’s case, one thing that has grow to be more and more widespread)?
We pose this query as a result of it’d apply to the Buckeyes once more in 2025. With a bevy of veterans off to the NFL from the 2024 nationwide championship crew and a fresh-faced quarterback taking up the offense, it’s completely affordable to suppose Ohio State may want just a few weeks to get rolling once more. The one drawback is the Buckeyes don’t have an inch of runway: Texas is ready in Week 1.
In one other period, this recreation could be not simply the marquee occasion of the opening weekend however a turning level within the season. The loser would then face one other 11 video games whereas residing on a knife’s edge. A second loss — to Michigan, maybe — would doom the Buckeyes. Texas would nonetheless have a whole SEC slate forward with no margin for error. And but, it may nonetheless be completely true that the loser of this recreation would have a declare to the title of the nation’s most proficient squad.
After all, that is the 12-team playoff period (and shortly to be the 14-, 16- or, if Eli Drinkwitz has his means, 30-team playoff period) which signifies that the primary showdown between Ohio State and Texas can be however an appetizer, and the faculties will stay the 2 almost certainly to hoist the trophy in late January.
Is that higher? Would the 2024 marketing campaign have been extra enjoyable if Ohio State had been unnoticed due to the loss to Michigan?
With all due respect to the parents in Ann Arbor nodding their heads like they’re at a Pantera live performance, the decision appears to be that the game advantages when the most effective groups get as many bites on the apple as they should shut the deal.
Tier 1b: The remainder of the most effective (three groups)
GeorgiaOregonPenn State
At this yr’s SEC media days, we posed a query to one of many league’s upper-tier coaches: What number of groups every season can actually win all of it?
His reply: 4. Possibly 5.
That is the key that few in school soccer like to debate, as a result of it invariably quashes hope for plenty of different fan bases, and except for five-star recruits, hope is a program’s most respected asset.
However this coach is actually not alone. It’s a principle posited many times by people inside the game. Simply which 4 or 5 groups it’s may change from yr to yr, however regardless of how a lot the playoff expands, the variety of groups that realistically have an opportunity to nonetheless be standing on the finish stays principally fastened.
That’s kind of the purpose of why we’re rating groups by tiers. There are many “good” groups, however what number of are actually inside putting distance of profitable a nationwide title? In all probability 4 or 5.
Editor’s Picks
1 Associated
Now, we may very well be incorrect in regards to the make-up of that five-team higher tier. There’s a primary time for the whole lot, in spite of everything. But when we’re taking a look at prime expertise, a path to the playoff and up to date historical past and we’re correctly studying our Magic 8 Ball, then Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are on the entrance of the road (alongside Ohio State and Texas).
The potential pitfall for every? QB play.
Georgia turns issues over to Gunner Stockton, who began final yr’s playoff loss to Notre Dame but additionally drives a 1985 Ford F-150. Except for a Trans Am with an enormous gold chicken on the hood, there’s no higher car a QB can drive to offer assurance that he is aware of what he’s doing.
At Oregon, Dan Lanning turns to Dante Moore, the previous prized recruit for UCLA who realized behind Dillon Gabriel final season. Moore has ample expertise to get the job performed, and if he struggles early, there’s not less than a 20% probability Phil Knight bribes Tom Brady to come back out of retirement, don a pretend mustache and use the title “Dom Frady” to guide the Geese to a title.
After which there’s Drew Allar, who enters his second yr with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki alongside arguably probably the most proficient supporting forged within the Huge Ten. The stress is on for Allar — who has been superb however not completely elite — to complete the job. We are able to’t assist however really feel like Penn State changing the outdated press field at Beaver Stadium is strictly the kind of curse-ending choice Allar and the Nittany Lions wanted to vary their fortunes.
Tier 2: Playoff expectations (six groups)
AlabamaClemsonMiamiMichiganNotre DameLSU
Something lower than a playoff look would really feel like a critical disappointment for the groups in Tier 2. None looks like an absolute lock, although.
Michigan’s schedule is actually accommodating. The one crew on the docket to complete 2024 with greater than seven wins is Ohio State, on the ultimate Saturday of the common season. However Michigan additionally has QB questions, with freshman Bryce Underwood thought-about the seemingly starter. Final season’s offensive woes led to 5 losses on the heels of a nationwide title, so getting the QB alternative proper is crucial.
Notre Dame and Alabama are breaking in new QBs, too. CJ Carr has loads of hype, and the Irish most likely have their finest talent place depth in Marcus Freeman’s tenure. The Tide misplaced 4 video games final season for the primary time since Nick Saban’s debut marketing campaign. Endurance can be skinny in Tuscaloosa, making Kalen DeBoer’s dealing with of the quarterbacks room a tough state of affairs. Ty Simpson, a once-prized recruit, has the within monitor, however freshman Keelon Russell is extremely proficient. Might this look somewhat just like the 2016 opener, when Blake Barnett acquired the beginning solely to be benched in favor of a freshman by the title of Jalen Hurts after two drives?
LSU hasn’t received an opener since 2019. Clemson has misplaced three of its previous 4 openers. One thing has acquired to provide when the 2 groups face off in Week 1. Clemson can most likely survive a defeat, even when Dabo Swinney’s critics will start the refrain as soon as once more that he’s previous his prime. LSU could have a harder time recovering with a schedule that also contains Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Brian Kelly’s head exploding with fireplace just like the purple man in “Inside Out” ought to not less than present some leisure if issues go south in Baton Rouge.
Then there’s Miami, a crew with all of the expertise to make a title run however sufficient self-inflicted wounds over time to wonder if it’ll be the likes of Stanford or Virginia Tech that journeys up the Canes.
(Notice: It’ll be Syracuse. Everyone knows it’ll be Syracuse.)
Tier 3: Somebody within the SEC has to lose video games, too (six groups)
FloridaOklahomaOle MissSouth CarolinaTennesseeTexas A&M
Enjoyable reality: All 16 SEC groups rank among the many 20 hardest schedules within the nation, based on ESPN’s metrics, from the grueling path for Florida (No. 1) to the straightforward (comparatively talking) slate at Missouri (No. 20).
We all know you’re shocked to study that life is troublesome within the SEC. The league so hardly ever mentions its depth or power of schedule, and its coaches are reticent to recommend that their groups deserve any extra good thing about the doubt in consequence. Oh wait, they’re really contractually obligated to say it in each interview.
Lane Kiffin drew the ire of some ACC followers when he mentioned one other SEC coach advised it’d be simpler to play Clemson every week than an SEC schedule. That may have been an exaggeration, however based on ESPN Analysis, a slate that included eight video games in opposition to Clemson plus an affordable nonconference schedule would work out to be virtually precisely as troublesome because the schedule Florida performs this season.
The Gators play eight groups which have hung out within the AP prime 10 prior to now two seasons, all of which have rosters boasting a blue-chip recruit majority. By SP+, the Gators get six of the highest 13 groups (and likewise Lengthy Island). It’s a schedule DJ Lagway known as “fun” and Florida followers name “less enjoyable than a root canal.”
Now, others may parse the information otherwise, however the backside line is inarguable: Nobody within the SEC has a simple trip to the playoff, which makes Tier 3 prone to embody not less than two playoff groups and not less than two faculties that fireside their coaches, and the distinction between these camps can be just a few performs somehow.
The SEC is designed to eat itself, which is without doubt one of the causes it has pushed so exhausting for elevated playoff entry. There’s merely not a situation by which each faculty that invests in profitable, has a playoff-caliber roster and options followers who count on to make a playoff run will really achieve this.
Tier 4: Final yr’s playoff surprises (4 groups)
Might Sam Leavitt lead the Solar Devils to a different Huge 12 convention championship? John Adams/Icon Sportswire
Arizona StateBoise StateIndianaSMU
In 2023, Arizona State and Indiana every received three video games, Boise State fired its coach after a 5-5 begin, and SMU was within the American Athletic Convention and misplaced in a bowl recreation to Boston Faculty.
In 2024, they had been all playoff groups.
The preliminary 12-team playoff was actually outstanding in that it didn’t merely reward 12 blue bloods. It coincided with an abrupt change within the sport that allowed full afterthoughts in September to play significant soccer in December and January.
Sure, playoff growth was the important thing right here, nevertheless it’s true, too, that the period of title, picture and likeness, the switch portal, and bloated conferences that equate to disparate schedules set the stage for much extra volatility within the standings than ever. The highest finish of the bell curve may stay static at 4 or 5 elite groups, however the meat of it retains getting wider.
Indiana and Arizona State each went from three wins to double digits. In your entire playoff period (minus the COVID-19 yr), that had occurred just one different time at a Energy 5 faculty (2017 Michigan State, which promptly regressed to 7-6 the following yr).
SMU got here inside a hair’s breadth of profitable the ACC title. TCU, Utah, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston — the previous six groups to maneuver up from a non-power league — had been a mixed 16-38 in convention play of their first years in a Energy 5 convention, and none had a profitable file.
Since firing Andy Avalos after that 5-5 begin, Boise State has received 15 of 18 video games, with all three losses coming to Energy 4 foes.
Life strikes shortly in school soccer nowadays. The massive query as this foursome seems to return to the Faculty Soccer Playoff is whether or not the pendulum swings simply as quick within the different path.
(Notice from Tallahassee: It does.)
Tier 5: So scorching proper now (4 groups)
IllinoisLouisvilleTexas TechUtah
We most likely shouldn’t use final yr’s playoff as a sign of what the longer term may maintain. It’s a one-year pattern dimension, in spite of everything. However 2024 gave us six first-time playoff groups, and odds are we’ll get two or three extra this season. And in relation to predicting which groups that is perhaps, the faculties in Tier 5 are the most popular issues since Hansel hit the runway in “Zoolander.”
There’s loads of buzz that this yr’s Indiana may very well be Illinois. If the implication is that the Illini may very well be a shock playoff crew out of the Huge Ten, it is smart. However the important thing distinction right here is that Indiana got here out of nowhere to go 11-1 final common season. An Illinois run into the playoff could be far much less stunning. The Illini went 10-3 final season, with two losses coming to playoff groups. In addition they beat Michigan (transitive property nationwide champs!) and South Carolina (although that doesn’t depend as a result of the SEC doesn’t care about meaningless bowls). Bret Bielema has constructed one thing that appears an terrible lot like his outdated Wisconsin groups — veteran QB, heavy dose of the run recreation behind a large O-line, stout protection — able to competing with practically anybody. After all, these Wisconsin groups had been notable for being routinely good however by no means fairly nice. How excessive is the ceiling for Bielema now?
Utah enters this season as a stylish choose within the Huge 12 because of some returning stars, an expectation that final yr’s dangerous luck has to show and at last opening a season with somebody apart from the hollowed-out shell of Cam Rising at QB.
If luck stored Utah from the Huge 12 race final season, it might need stored Louisville from the playoff. The Playing cards misplaced 4 video games — three to top-15 groups — all by a landing or much less, together with a defeat by the hands of Stanford that can go down as probably the one dumbest approach to lose a soccer recreation that didn’t contain throwing a shoe.
And should you’re not psyched for Texas Tech this yr … how a lot money would it not take to vary your thoughts?
Tier 6: The Huge 12 is the brand new ACC Coastal (4 groups)
BaylorIowa StateKansas StateTCU
Ever play bank card roulette? When the invoice comes at a restaurant, everybody on the desk places their bank card right into a hat, then the server picks one at random to pay your entire invoice. That’s successfully how the Huge 12 is trying proper now. (On this analogy, although, Texas Tech ought to most likely be choosing up any checks.) Take a look at the betting markets and each crew within the convention is projected to win between 5.5 and eight.5 video games this season.
So, throw the names right into a hat and pull one out. You’re as prone to get it proper as we’re.
Tier 7: Flying beneath the radar like Tom Cruise in ‘Maverick’ (5 groups)
Georgia TechIowaKansasMinnesotaWashington
We’ve seen a number of change in school soccer lately, which has made Iowa’s offense such a wanted by means of line connecting the fashionable model of the game with an older technology. Granted, that technology most likely lived by means of the Nice Melancholy, however let’s not break up hairs. Nonetheless, there have been indicators that even the Hawkeyes is perhaps taking a small step ahead, because the offense scored 40 factors in a recreation 4 occasions final season — one thing Iowa had performed simply 4 occasions within the earlier 4 seasons mixed. Now, Iowa has a QB it likes in South Dakota State switch Mark Gronowski, the protection needs to be stout once more, and no person punts just like the Hawkeyes.
Kansas was 1-5 in video games determined by a landing or much less final yr but additionally had wins over three straight ranked groups in November. With a extra settled offensive strategy and the return of Jalon Daniels, this Jayhawks squad seems like a possible sleeper.
Not counting the 2020 COVID-19 season, Minnesota is one among simply 15 groups to win 60% of its Energy 5 video games. That’s extra spectacular than it sounds. It’s higher than Washington, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miami and Texas A&M. The Gophers enter 2025 with a ton of intriguing choices led by Koi Perich and Darius Taylor, and whereas the schedule contains street journeys to Ohio State and Oregon, there’s actually a path for PJ Fleck to get Minnesota again to the 10-win plateau.
Enjoyable reality: Since Brent Key took over as head coach at Georgia Tech on Sept. 26, 2022, the Yellow Jackets have as many wins in opposition to ranked foes (six) as Clemson and greater than Penn State (5), Oklahoma (4) or LSU (4). In actual fact, they’ve greater than Miami, Colorado, Boise State, Indiana and BYU mixed — and all 5 of these groups completed final yr within the prime 25. After all, in that very same span, Georgia Tech has losses to Virginia, Bowling Inexperienced, Virginia Tech and Vandy. So, it’s a piece in progress.
Washington is a piece in progress, too. In Yr 1 below Jedd Fisch, the Huskies floundered to a 6-7 file, together with losses to Washington State and Rutgers. However Demond Williams Jr. seems like a difference-maker at QB, and it’s price remembering that, at Arizona, Fisch went from a totally noncompetitive 1-11 in Yr 1 to 5-7 in Yr 2 with one of the crucial improved groups within the nation. Washington may nonetheless be a yr away, nevertheless it wouldn’t be a shock if the Huskies take a giant leap ahead now earlier than threatening within the Huge Ten in 2026.
Tier 8: Regression to the imply (the dangerous sort) (5 groups)
BYUDukeMissouriSyracuseVanderbilt
This group of groups received 32 video games in opposition to Energy 4 opponents final season. Twenty-four of these wins (75%) got here by a landing or much less.
Missouri and Duke every received 4 video games by which they trailed within the fourth quarter.
BYU and Syracuse every had been tied or trailing within the fourth quarter seven occasions. Every went 6-1.
Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt.
If you happen to search for and down the checklist of luck-influenced metrics, these groups elevate extra purple flags than Kanye’s Bumble profile.
Maybe these guys all fend off the fickle school soccer gods for one more yr, but when the “Final Destination” films have taught us something, it’s that Ali Larter needs to be in additional films. But when there’s one other factor they taught us, it’s that you could solely keep away from a disastrous destiny for therefore lengthy.
Tier 9: Regression to the imply (the great sort) (4 groups)
After transferring to NC State in 2024, may Grayson McCall lead the Wolfpack to a greater season than final yr’s 6-7? Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire
AuburnFlorida StateNC StateVirginia Tech
This spring, ESPN’s Invoice Connelly dug into three metrics that always rely closely on luck: turnovers, shut video games and accidents. His findings: Loads went incorrect for Florida State final yr.
Now, it’s admirable that Connelly dug deep into the numbers, ran some regression evaluation and employed NASA-level computing energy to establish this. One other approach to do it might’ve been to easily watch 5 minutes of FSU soccer final season, as a result of at any given second, one thing ridiculous was going incorrect for the Seminoles.
You merely don’t go from 13-1 to 2-10 with out the soccer gods deciding to do some critical smiting.
All the pieces that would go incorrect did go incorrect, from Connelly’s stats — FSU was 128th in turnover luck, ninetieth in close-game luck and one hundred and tenth in lineup consistency — to the kinds of issues that had been most likely a bit extra predictable (settling for DJ Uiagalelei at QB over Cam Ward).
It needs to be famous that, as soon as once more, FSU has rolled the cube on a QB with a checkered previous, and Tommy Castellanos appears intent on taunting the aforementioned soccer gods, however on the very least, a few of that dangerous luck has to go the opposite means in 2025, placing the Seminoles on the right track to enhance by an excellent measure.
The identical could be mentioned for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 1-12 below coach Brent Pry in video games decided by a landing or much less, nevertheless it’s additionally price noting that final yr marked the primary time since 2010 the Hokies didn’t lose a single regular-season recreation by greater than 10.
NC State provides to the ACC’s run of dangerous luck final season, with Grayson McCall‘s early-season damage upending the offense and a 45-point year-over-year swing in factors off turnovers for a crew that misplaced 5 video games by 10 or fewer factors.
However the crew that may have the most effective probability to show the disappointments of 2024 right into a critical playoff run in 2025 is Auburn. Jackson Arnold takes over at QB for an offense loaded with skill-position expertise. The protection needs to be strong. Then have a look at the luck-based numbers: Auburn was 124th in turnover luck and lifeless final in close-game luck, which coated up the very fact it was among the many finest groups within the nation in success and explosive play charge differential. The items are in place, the Tigers simply want somewhat extra luck to make a run at 10 wins.
Tier 10a: The Huge Ten’s ticking clocks (three groups)
NebraskaUSCWisconsin
Matt Rhule, Lincoln Riley and Luke Fickell every appeared like absolute house run teaching hires. Setting apart Riley’s 11-1 begin to his tenure at USC, the three at the moment are a mixed 40-39 total with a 23-32 file in Huge Ten play since Dec. 1, 2022. That has put all three able to make 2025 a must-win yr. What precisely “winning” means most likely differs a bit by faculty, however the stress is on.
Nebraska is perhaps finest geared up to make the leap to the following degree. Dylan Raiola goes into Yr 2 working the offense, nevertheless it’ll be his first full season with Dana Holgorsen calling the performs. Add in that, in some unspecified time in the future, Nebraska’s run of terrible luck in shut video games has to swing the opposite means and it’s not unfathomable that the Huskers are within the combine for a playoff bid.
For Wisconsin, it’s a return to the Badgers’ foundations as Fickell has deserted plans to convey an up-tempo passing assault to the stodgy Huge Ten and can construct across the floor recreation.
At USC, Riley misplaced a ton of big-name expertise within the portal and can transfer ahead with a QB who has 19 landing passes and 17 turnovers in 9 profession begins in opposition to groups with a profitable file.
They’ll’t all flip it round this yr, which makes this maybe probably the most fascinating portion of the Huge Ten’s standings.
Tier 10b: The Group of 6’s different prime playoff contenders (six groups)
LibertyMemphisJames MadisonToledoTulaneUNLV
Liberty is the gold normal in smooth scheduling. The Flames have the worst preseason power of schedule within the nation after ending 2024 with … the worst power of schedule within the nation. Half of Liberty’s 12 video games are in opposition to groups that had been on the FCS degree in 2021. It has 4 video games in opposition to first-year head coaches. Eight video games come in opposition to groups that received 4 or fewer FBS video games final yr. Jamey Chadwell ought to have an excellent crew, however the schedule additionally ought to make it practically unattainable to complete worse than 10-2.
UNLV and Memphis each determine to be in rivalry for the Group of 6’s playoff bid, and their schedules actually make the trail somewhat simpler. The Rebels (No. 113 schedule) have a house recreation in opposition to UCLA and a street journey to Boise State to cope with, however additionally they have eight video games in opposition to groups ranked one hundredth or worse in preseason FPI (together with six ranked one hundred and twentieth or worse). Memphis (No. 106 schedule power) additionally has a comparatively clear path. The Tigers get Arkansas — their lone Energy 4 opponent — at house, miss Military, Tulane and UTSA from the convention schedule, and observe the sport in opposition to the Razorbacks with 5 video games in six weeks in opposition to groups that completed a mixed 15-41 vs. FBS opponents final yr. If Memphis can topple the Hogs, count on the Tigers to enter November with a top-20 rating.
Since 2022, no Group of 5 crew has received extra video games than Tulane (32). The Inexperienced Wave must once more be among the many better of the American when it comes to expertise, however the schedule isn’t any straightforward process to handle. In nonconference play, Tulane hosts Northwestern, goes on the street to South Alabama, hosts Duke (and QB Darian Mensah, who transferred from Tulane after final season), then travels to Ole Miss. In convention play, Tulane will get ECU, Military, UTSA and Memphis — 4 of the six different American groups to make a bowl final yr. If Tulane makes the playoff, it’ll have earned the spot.
Might Toledo make a run on the playoff? The Rockets open with a visit to Kentucky, which isn’t precisely an insurmountable hill to climb until you’re Ole Miss. Win that and the following week in opposition to Western Kentucky, and Toledo ought to have somewhat buzz. Then try the again half of the schedule: vs. Kent State, at Washington State, vs. NIU, at Miami (Ohio), vs. Ball State and at Central Michigan. These six groups completed a mixed 16-24 within the second half of final season.
JMU has received 28 video games in three seasons since shifting up from the FCS, and of its 9 losses, 4 have come by a landing or much less. The Solar Belt is deep, nevertheless it’s not top-heavy, opening the door for the Dukes to make a run on the Group of 6’s playoff bid.
Tier 11: Potential sleepers (seven groups)
Invoice Belichick is hoping to have an impactful first season because the Tar Heels’ head coach. Do you suppose they’ll end with a profitable file? Matt Kelley/Getty Photos
CincinnatiColoradoHoustonNorth CarolinaPittsburghRutgersVirginia
This tier contains Deion Sanders and Invoice Belichick so, for media functions, it ought to most likely be Tier 1. However there are nonetheless some large questions surrounding Colorado and UNC.
For the Buffaloes, it’ll be the primary time Coach Prime should go to battle with out Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter. Colorado has topped 150 yards on designed runs solely as soon as in two years below Deion Sanders, and the Buffs’ 74 designed rush yards-per-game in that stretch is, by far, the worst within the nation. How will Colorado adapt after dropping two of probably the most explosive gamers within the nation within the passing recreation?
UNC has fully overhauled its roster from the Mack Brown period, with Belichick dipping closely into the switch portal — together with practically three dozen spring portal additions. Quite a few coaches who spoke with ESPN mentioned this spring was an extremely shallow pool of expertise. Can that really translate to wins, or will 2025 be extra about constructing a basis than reviving this system?
As a substitute, it is perhaps the lower-profile applications on this tier which have the true upside.
Virginia added switch QB Chandler Morris alongside one of many higher portal courses within the ACC and performs one of many weakest schedules of any Energy 4 faculty this season. Louisville, Washington State and Duke are the one opponents on this season’s slate that received greater than six video games in 2024.
Houston confirmed indicators of promise in Yr 1 below Willie Fritz with wins over TCU, Utah and Kansas State, even when the ultimate file was ugly (4-8). An offensive overhaul led by Texas A&M switch Conner Weigman ought to assist a program that completed 133rd in scoring final season.
Every of the previous two seasons, Rutgers has gone 6-6 with a four-game dropping streak within the combine then received a bowl recreation. Often, that might depend as actual success at a spot like Rutgers, however coach Greg Schiano clearly has greater aspirations, and the Scarlet Knights might need the expertise to push for greater issues in 2025.
Cincinnati blew a giant result in Pitt in Week 2. Pitt went on to start out 7-0 earlier than accidents and a handful of shut losses derailed its season. Had Cincy held on, it may’ve opened 6-1 with a win over Arizona State on its file. As a substitute, the Bearcats completed on a five-game dropping streak and didn’t make a bowl. Each groups are deeper and extra skilled this season, with veteran QBs and stars on protection (Kyle Louis, Dontay Corleone).
Tier 12: Even Stevens (seven groups)
ArkansasBoston CollegeCalKentuckyMarylandMichigan StateUCLA
Within the playoff period, BC has completed with both six or seven wins 9 occasions.
Arkansas is 30-31 below Sam Pittman. Not counting the COVID-19 season, it’s 20-21 vs. FBS groups. The Hogs are 21-9 vs. groups with a dropping file and 9-22 vs. groups with a profitable file.
Cal has completed with between 5 and 7 wins six occasions within the playoff period, and it has 61 video games (fifth most nationally) determined by a landing or much less.
Since 2018, Michigan State is 41-41 — although that features seasons of 11-2 and 4-8.
Since Mark Stoops’ second yr, Kentucky is 65-63 vs. FBS opponents. From 2015 to 2023, the Wildcats had been 31-29 in SEC play.
UCLA is 66-64 within the playoff period, averaging 29.6 factors and surrendering 29.1 factors in opposition to FBS opposition.
Now, Oscar Wilde mentioned that consistency was the final refuge of the unimaginative, however The Rock mentioned success was extra about consistency than greatness. Who’re you going to consider — some long-dead author or the star of “Jumanji: The Next Level”?
Tier 13: Stars & stripes (three groups)
Air ForceArmyNavy
Military and Navy had been a mixed 22-5 final season. In 2023, Air Power received 9 video games. Within the playoff period, the navy academies have 11 10-win seasons. They usually’ve performed all of it with out NIL offers or taking transfers.
Now, if we needed to actually shield America’s pursuits, we’d begin placing tariffs on the portal and utilizing that cash to fund academy income sharing.
Tier 14: Room for enchancment (six groups)
ArizonaNorthwesternOklahoma StateUCFWake ForestWest Virginia
Arizona and Oklahoma State had been a mixed 20-7 (and 14-4 in convention play) in 2023. Each fell off a cliff in 2024.
The Wildcats struggled in Yr 1 below Brent Brennan, however they bring about again Noah Fifita at QB and confirmed sufficient life {that a} step ahead in 2025 isn’t unrealistic.
Mike Gundy has made it a behavior of getting large seasons combined with mediocre ones prior to now few years, however final yr’s winless Huge 12 schedule was an anomaly. Gundy is excessive on QB Hauss Hejny, who ought to not less than have the ability to open issues up a bit for the run recreation.
Wake Forest is getting a contemporary begin below new coach Jake Dickert. The roster wants work — QB and O-line are clean slates — however the Deacons convey again a proficient tailback in Demond Claiborne and have the weakest schedule within the Energy 4.
UCF is trying to return to the longer term by bringing Scott Frost house after his dismal stint at Nebraska. Frost inherited a practice wreck throughout his first stint in Orlando and turned issues round shortly — although that was within the American, not the Huge 12.
For nearly everything of this millennium, Northwestern has successfully put the identical crew on the sector — shaky QB, good protection, good gamers — and watched because the outcomes provide you with both 10 wins and a run on the Huge Ten or a 3-9 season that’s bodily painful to look at.
Except for the stunning 9-4 season in 2023, West Virginia has received both 5 – 6 video games yearly since 2019.
In different phrases, it’s exhausting to really feel notably good about any crew on this tier, nevertheless it’s additionally completely inside purpose that some crew right here wins 10 video games.
Tier 15: Group of 6 with upside (15 groups)
App StateBuffaloEast CarolinaFlorida AtlanticFresno StateLouisianaOhioNorth TexasSouth AlabamaTexas StateTroyUConnSouth FloridaUTSAWestern Kentucky
North Texas has been a perennial six-win crew, however this may very well be the Imply Inexperienced’s probability to make a giant leap up the standings. They verify in just one spot forward of Liberty with the No. One hundred and thirty fifth-ranked schedule within the nation, miss ECU, USF, Memphis and Tulane in convention play, and, after Oct. 1, go on the street solely thrice — to Charlotte, UAB and Rice.
Florida Atlantic was one other crew snakebit by dangerous luck final season. As Connelly famous in his evaluation of groups dealing with the worst luck, just one program completed 111th or worse in all three classes he evaluated: FAU. Now add new head coach Zach Kittley and QB switch Caden Veltkamp and there’s quite a bit to love in regards to the Owls’ upside.
South Alabama additionally had loads of dangerous luck in shut video games. The Jaguars misplaced to Ohio, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and Texas State — all groups that received eight or extra video games — by a mixed 20 factors.
Tier 16a: A minimum of you tried (three groups)
Mississippi StatePurdueStanford
Stanford has received 9 Energy 5 video games since 2021. 5 of these wins got here in opposition to groups that both completed ranked within the prime 25 or had been ranked there on the time of the sport. One other got here in opposition to Deion Sanders. Stanford is senseless.
Mississippi State is 2-16 vs. Energy 5 competitors prior to now two years. The 2 wins are by a mixed 11 factors. The losses are by a mean of 18.
Purdue. Extra like Pur-don’t. We’ll present ourselves out.
Tier 16b: The misplaced boys (two groups)
Oregon StateWashington State
Up to now 24 months, Oregon and Washington agreed to maneuver to the Huge Ten for 40 cents on the greenback. Stanford and Cal took even much less from the ACC. SMU agreed to play ACC ball for nothing, and Memphis simply supplied the Huge 12 $200 million for an invitation.
Why?
Due to zombified stays of Washington State and Oregon State.
From former Cougars QB John Mateer, who transferred, alongside together with his offensive coordinator, to Oklahoma after final season’s stunning 8-4 end, on seeing what turned of Wazzu after the Pac-12 fell aside: “I loved my time there. I never thought I’d leave. It sucked. I couldn’t control it. I was going to play against whoever I was going to play against, but it broke my heart.”
Tier 17: They’re high-quality. Strong. First rate. OK. (10 groups)
Arkansas StateBowling GreenColorado StateGeorgia SouthernMiami (Ohio)Northern IllinoisOld DominionSan Diego StateSan José StateUtah State
Bronco Mendenhall had New Mexico on the verge of a bowl final season, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he rights the ship shortly at Utah State.
Eddie George inherits a strong squad at Bowling Inexperienced, and he’s pondering — properly, both aspirationally or he’s delusional — that the Falcons can win large.
Jay Norvell has gone from three to 5 to eight wins in his time at Colorado State. This may very well be his actual breakthrough season.
Sadly for NIU, it misplaced out on a simple win with out Notre Dame on the schedule this season.
Tier 18: We may very well be talked into them (eight groups)
Coastal CarolinaHawai’iUL MonroeLouisiana TechSam HoustonSouthern MissUABWyoming
Hawai’i received 5 video games and missed out on beating UCLA and UNLV by a mixed 5 factors. The Rainbow Warriors are trending in the appropriate path.
Louisiana Tech completed 5-8, however its first six losses of the season all got here by 10 or fewer factors.
ULM completed on a six-game dropping streak, even losing an opportunity to embarrass Hugh Freeze at Jordan-Hare in late November, which had grow to be one among our favourite Group of 5 traditions.
Tier 19: The very best leisure you’re prone to discover on a Tuesday evening in mid-November (12 groups)
Central MichiganDelawareEastern MichiganFlorida InternationalJacksonville StateMarshallMissouri StateNevadaTempleTulsaUTEPWestern Michigan
You is perhaps stunned to study that Delaware is an FBS soccer program starting this season. To assist along with your preseason preparation, listed below are some enjoyable info to familiarize your self with this system.
The Blue Hen is the one explicitly feminine mascot in FBS soccer (not counting Ms. Wuf at NC State).
Delaware’s winged helmet design was created by former coach David Nelson, a former Michigan soccer participant, who basically reduce and pasted his former crew’s look.
Wealthy Gannon and Joe Flacco each performed at Delaware.
Delaware is, in actual fact, a whole state and never simply 18 miles of freeway between toll cubicles in Maryland and New Jersey.
Tier 20: Participation trophies (11 groups)
AkronBall StateCharlotteGeorgia StateKennesaw StateKent StateMassachusettsMiddle TennesseeNew MexicoNew Mexico StateRice
You understand what they name the man who finishes final in his class at medical faculty? They name him “doctor.” And so it’s that the groups in Tier 20 are technically FBS soccer applications, although they’re as prone to end with a convention championship as they’re to complete medical faculty themselves.
Because the finish of 2022, Kent State has had a head coach stop to grow to be a coordinator for Deion Sanders (then be demoted), one other get fired for taking loans from a booster and this system posting a 1-23 file, together with 21 straight losses. Final season, Kent State was outgained by a mean of 282 yards per recreation — 120 greater than every other crew. The Golden Flashes play Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma within the first 5 weeks this season.
Final season, Ball State turned solely the fourth crew of the playoff period (not counting the 2020 COVID season) to have a turnover margin of plus-2 or higher and nonetheless be outscored by not less than 14 factors per recreation and outgained by not less than 100 yards per recreation. So, what occurs if the turnover luck is somewhat worse in 2025?
Then there’s Charlotte, a program that couldn’t even afford sleeves for its final head coach, has had just one profitable season in its historical past and now faces the second-most daunting schedule of any Group of 6 crew within the nation. Per ESPN’s metrics, the 49ers’ schedule is harder than these of all however one Huge 12 crew.
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