Invoice BarnwellOct 20, 2025, 08:45 AM ET
Shut
Invoice Barnwell is a senior NFL author for ESPN.com. He analyzes soccer on and off the sphere like nobody else on the planet, writing about in-season X’s and O’s, offseason transactions and a lot extra.
He’s the host of the Invoice Barnwell Present podcast, with episodes launched weekly. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a workers author at Grantland.
Should you’re certain about something within the NFL, simply wait a couple of weeks. Heck, in case you had been certain about something from Week 7‘s Giants-Broncos sport, ready a couple of minutes appeared to work simply as nicely.
After six months of ready for the NFL to return over the offseason, what we see within the first few weeks of motion feels stickier and extra significant than the rest, and we kind opinions rapidly.
In fact, we must always know that what occurs in September doesn’t all the time imply very a lot by the point we get to the postseason. Patrick Mahomes trying like a famous person within the first few weeks of the 2018 season? Vital. The Eagles hitting their bye at 2-2 a yr in the past after shedding to the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons and getting blown out by the Bucs? Nope. Philly casually went 16-1 the remainder of the best way, successful by a median of almost two touchdowns per contest.
Subscribe: ‘The Bill Barnwell Show’
Everybody has their opinions and emotions about what we noticed over the primary month of the 2025 season. What number of of these ideas truly ring true as we hit the center of October? Some issues that appeared apparent or important have pale into the September void, whereas different opinions solely really feel like they’ve solidified.
As we speak, let’s run by way of 4 of these September ideas and see how Week 7 impacted what we knew — or thought we knew — about among the NFL’s most attention-grabbing groups.
Leap to a September take:The Chiefs’ offense was brokenThe Jaguars’ protection might assist the offenseThe Colts’ offense would regressThe Payments would have a transparent path within the AFC
What we stated in September: “This offense is broken.”
Effectively, it was. The Chiefs regarded like a large number by way of their 0-2 begin, and whereas they received their season again on observe with a 22-9 victory over the Giants in Week 3, the offense nonetheless felt nearly completely dependent upon Mahomes scrambles and out-of-structure magic. We knew issues had been going to be at the least a bit of higher as soon as Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice returned to the fold, however the Chiefs regarded like they had been going to wrestle to dwell as much as even the 2023 and 2024 editions of their offense, not to mention the halcyon days when Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill had been at their peaks.
Over the previous 4 weeks? The Chiefs are fourth in EPA per play, a determine which rises to first after we take away rubbish time (these performs through which one group’s possibilities of successful are beneath 10%) from the equation. They’re second in factors scored per drive. And if we once more take away rubbish time drives, the Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 56% of their possessions because the begin of Week 4. The league common is 26%.
Editor’s Picks
2 Associated
With Rice returning to the lineup for the primary time in over a yr Sunday after a knee damage and six-game suspension, the Chiefs lastly received to area the first-string offense they’d been ready to unveil because the begin of 2024. Rice, Worthy and Hollywood Brown had been within the lineup collectively for the primary time. Exterior of rookie left deal with Josh Simmons, who’s away from the group coping with a private matter, the Chiefs had everybody on their offensive depth chart accessible in opposition to the Raiders.
The outcomes had been dramatic. Even whereas sitting Mahomes for your complete fourth quarter, the Chiefs scored 31 factors and racked up 30 first downs. The Raiders ran solely 30 performs, the second fewest by any group in a sport because the 1970 merger. The Chiefs averaged 0.38 EPA per play with Mahomes on the sphere; that’s the very best their offense has carried out with Mahomes on the sphere in a regular-season sport since Week 3 of the 2023 season. And this was the ninth-most-productive regular-season efficiency of the Mahomes period by that metric.
All of the sudden, the Chiefs’ offense is flourishing. And whereas it’s straightforward to chalk that as much as the return of Rice or a hapless opponent (particularly after the Raiders’ protection misplaced Maxx Crosby to an damage), this actually began again in Week 4, once they beat the Ravens 37-20. The next week in opposition to the Jaguars, Mahomes threw a pick-six on the Jacksonville aim line, which swung that sport towards the Jags (whom we’ll get to in a bit), however even in that loss, the Chiefs scored 28 factors and had six drives of fifty yards or extra in opposition to an excellent protection. Then, they dropped 30 factors on seven significant drives in opposition to the Lions, punting as soon as all sport.
What has modified? Lower than you may assume. The designed run sport has been about as environment friendly because it was, in case you account for rubbish time. The Chiefs haven’t modified how typically they throw in impartial sport scripts (loads, each earlier than and after the Giants sport). They’ve gotten higher after the catch, although not considerably so; their uncooked yards after the catch are up fairly a bit, however in taking a look at NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ yards after catch over expectation, the Chiefs had been twenty eighth by way of three weeks and gained’t land a lot greater over the following 4 video games.
The 2 most notable variations, at the least to start out, come by way of the passing sport and the work of the receivers. For one, the Chiefs’ go catchers are doing a greater job of bringing in Mahomes’ passes. They’d a minus-6.7% catch charge over expectation by way of three video games, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL. The one groups operating a decrease charge over that span had been the Titans, who simply fired their coach, and the Jaguars, who’re nonetheless a large number.
Since Week 4, that has jumped to 0.8%, which is true across the center of the pack. The Chiefs aren’t snatching balls out of skinny air, however their receivers are holding their very own and never letting their star quarterback down.
play
1:07
Why Daniel Dopp says Rashee Rice has WR1 upside on any given week
Daniel Dopp congratulates fantasy managers who stashed Rashee Rice and highlights why he has WR1 upside on any given week.
The larger issue, although, is what has been lacking across the Chiefs’ receivers: defenders. By means of three video games, simply over 46% of Chiefs passes had been thrown to open receivers. That determine was good for twenty second within the league. After we think about that the Chiefs had been enjoying with out their prime two wideouts and had Mahomes making an attempt to suit throws to guys like Brown and Tyquan Thornton in tight quarters, the underwhelming catch charge may not be an excessive amount of of a shock.
Over the previous 4 video games? That determine has risen to 62.8%, the very best mark within the NFL.
The early-season difficulties in getting receivers open seem like a historic outlier. Between 2018 and 2024, the Chiefs ranked no decrease than fourth within the league in open goal charge in any given season. Given what number of receivers have come by way of Andy Reid’s offense in that span, and the way the Chiefs have developed stylistically to account for groups taking away massive performs excessive, it’s laborious to not give a good portion of the credit score for these enhancements to Mahomes. He has a tremendous means to establish pure areas with open pockets in coverages after which create explosives out of construction.
With receivers as open because the Chiefs have been over the previous 4 weeks, Kansas Metropolis is operating an astronomical anticipated completion charge. Per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ mannequin, a median group of receivers could be anticipated to show 73.6% of Mahomes’ makes an attempt into completions over the previous month, additionally tops within the league. Offenses can run a excessive anticipated catch charge by throwing the ball brief, because the Raiders are doing over that point span, with 5.1 air yards per try; however the Chiefs are averaging a decent 6.7 per try.
And now, after the returns of Rice and Worthy, the Chiefs don’t have a median set of receivers. For the primary time in years, Reid can actually stretch the sphere and create inconceivable binds for opposing defenses. Rice received a 2-yard rating on a faucet go, however the different touchdowns on Sunday had been merely mismatches. Rice was remoted in opposition to oft-picked-on nook Kyu Blu Kelly for a back-shoulder TD within the second quarter. Later within the sport, when the Raiders blitzed Mahomes and performed Cowl 0, the legendary blitz-defeating quarterback had no hassle discovering Brown within the slot for a rating. These are simply straightforward completions with out a lot threat for Mahomes.
The tight ends additionally received within the combine Sunday. A blown protection on a deep crosser led to a 44-yard catch-and-run for Kelce, whereas Noah Grey picked up 28 yards on a faux screen-and-wheel up the sideline. The Chiefs have struggled out of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) this season, however they’d a 61% success charge with two or extra tight ends in opposition to the Raiders, their finest mark of the season.
Compensate for NFL Week 7
• Takeaways, questions from every sport »• Barnwell: Re-thinking 4 Sept. takes »• Overreactions » | Sunday’s finest performs »• Full Week 7 scoreboard » | Extra »
And the go safety issues that plagued Mahomes in 2024 haven’t been as current this season. Over the previous month, Mahomes has handled fast pressures on simply 6% of his dropbacks, comfortably the bottom charge within the league (the typical is about 15%). He’s doing that whereas holding the ball at a charge nicely above league common, so it isn’t merely a product of getting the ball out quick.
With Mahomes taking sacks on simply 3% of his dropbacks over the previous month and turning the ball over simply as soon as (on that aforementioned pick-six within the Jaguars sport), the Chiefs are emulating the Payments and turning into a constructive play manufacturing facility. Final season, slightly below 47% of the Chiefs’ performs on first and second down had been profitable by EPA. That was ninth within the NFL.
Over the previous 4 weeks, the Chiefs are second in success charge on early downs, trailing solely the Payments. Final yr’s group wanted to thrive on third right down to survive, and with few explosive performs and an enormous blinking mild of an issue at left deal with, too many Chiefs drives ended in need of the tip zone as a result of they couldn’t depend on Mahomes to make it by way of 4 or 5 third downs with out having the play blown up from his blind facet. Now, with each improved offensive line play and extra success on first and second down, third-and-long hasn’t been as urgent of a problem. The Chiefs confronted third down with greater than 4 yards to go simply 3 times whereas Mahomes was within the sport Sunday.
Will all of this stick? Possibly not fairly as considerably because it has over the previous 4 video games. The Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 12 of 14 goal-to-go conditions over that point, after going 1-for-4 over the primary three weeks of the season. Mahomes has gotten away with a dropped interception or two, together with a decide that ought to have been made by the Raiders within the second quarter on a drive that ended with Rice’s second landing of the sport.
With Rice and Worthy within the combine and Mahomes enjoying spectacular soccer, although, this seems to be and appears like the identical Chiefs offense that has terrified the league as soon as once more.
What we stated in September: “The defense can hold up a sloppy offense.”
For all of the optimism and explosive performs popping out of Jacksonville’s 4-1 begin to the season, it was fairly clear to anybody paying shut consideration that Trevor Lawrence and the offense weren’t holding up their finish of the discount. That offense was producing the occasional massive play, however the operation merely wasn’t residing as much as lifelike expectations.
All of ESPN. Multi functional place.
Watch your favourite occasions within the newly enhanced ESPN App. Be taught extra about what plan is best for you. Signal Up Now
Even by way of that 4-1 begin, the Jags led the league in procedural penalties, the type of unforced errors which have little to do with what occurs after the snap. They had been stricken by unlawful shifts and false begins. The offense took delay of sport penalties, even in vital spots or from dead-ball moments. Lawrence threw an unlawful ahead go after crossing the road of scrimmage in Week 1 in opposition to the Panthers, then did it once more in Week 5 in opposition to the Chiefs.
On prime of that, the Jags had been sloppy with the soccer. Lawrence misplaced a fumble making an attempt to leap over the pile for a fourth-and-short landing in opposition to the Chiefs, solely to have the ball punched out of his palms. Brian Thomas Jr. struggled with drops, which has led to picks for Lawrence; the QB appeared to throw one brutal interception per sport, which normally got here within the second half.
The protection lined up these issues by forcing gobs of takeaways. Turnover regression towards the imply was one of many greatest causes I included the Jags as one in all my groups most definitely to enhance in 2025, however no one noticed Jacksonville forcing 15 takeaways by way of its first 5 video games. A type of takeaways turned a landing, as Devin Lloyd now-famously took Mahomes’ solely turnover of the previous month 99 yards the opposite manner, dramatically flipping that sport again in Jacksonville’s favor.
The opposite 14 turnovers helped create shorter fields for the Jags. By means of these first 5 video games, the Jaguars had 14 drives begin on their very own 40-yard line or nearer to the opposition finish zone. These drives produced 5 touchdowns, 4 area objectives and three failures through a missed area aim or fourth-down stuff. (The opposite two resulted in kneel-downs to seal up victories.) The Lions and Colts had been the one groups to start out extra typically in what’s typically thought-about to be constructive area place.
However over these previous two losses? The Jaguars have had one brief area, which got here in opposition to the Rams on Sunday in London. It rapidly evaporated after an unlawful man downfield penalty and a 13-yard sack on a free rush through which Lawrence didn’t have a scorching reply and tried to scramble his manner out of strain. As a substitute, the Jags had been knocked out of area aim vary and needed to punt down 21-0.
Not a lot has modified on the lengthy drives. The Jaguars had been twenty fourth in factors per possession on drives beginning inside their very own 40-yard line throughout the 4-1 begin, they usually’re twenty seventh by that very same metric on those self same possessions over the previous two weeks. The protection hasn’t been capable of drive any turnovers over that span, although, and that has put all the strain on the Jaguars’ offense to maintain lengthy, profitable drives.
That’s the place the procedural penalties proceed to chew them. The Jags have added 10 extra procedural penalties on offense to their ledger over the previous two video games, tying them for the league lead. That’s with out contemplating penalties like offensive holding and unlawful blocks above the waist, the type of calls environment friendly offenses ideally keep away from as a lot as doable.
play
0:30
Travis Hunter hauls in 34-yard go for 1st NFL TD
Trevor Lawrence airs one out to Travis Hunter for Hunter’s first profession NFL landing.
Essentially the most pointless of these penalties got here in opposition to the Seahawks in Week 6. As Thomas wrestled a 50-50 ball away from Seahawks cornerback Josh Jobe for a landing within the third quarter, a flag hit the opposite facet of the sphere, with rookie hybrid participant Travis Hunter getting flagged for being offside. The penalty didn’t matter a ton within the massive image, because the Jaguars continued the drive and ultimately scored a landing anyway, however different much less conspicuous calls do make a distinction.
Drops, an issue plaguing the Jags seemingly since Lawrence arrived on the town, proceed to be a priority. Thomas got here below scrutiny earlier within the season for shrinking in tight quarters and failing to make some robust catches. I’m unsure these complaints had been fully warranted, however I did assume that story was behind us now. As a substitute, that is nonetheless a problem.
Thomas had three doubtlessly catchable balls fall to the bottom Sunday, together with a dig the place the go was knocked out of his palms by a giant hit from Kamren Kinchens and an out that was almost introduced in by a leaping Thomas. And final week, Thomas didn’t do a ok job of bringing in a dig thrown at his helmet, producing a three-and-out in an eight-point sport within the fourth quarter.
The Jags have the second-worst catch charge over expectation of any offense within the NFL this season, forward of solely the Bears, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. And whereas it’s straightforward to choose on Thomas given his stardom, everyone seems to be responsible. Tim Patrick had a nasty drop in opposition to the Chiefs that ought to have produced a decide, just for three completely different Kansas Metropolis defenders to exaggeratedly whiff on catching the ball. Dyami Brown dropped a would-be landing go that hit him within the palms in opposition to the Bengals.
When groups commit too many penalties and don’t have brief fields, they find yourself inevitably needing to transform third-and-long — typically greater than as soon as on a drive — to attain factors. The Jags confronted third-and-10 or extra eight occasions Sunday, with Lawrence changing a kind of makes an attempt. The Jags failed on third-and-short, too; they got here up brief on a third-and-2 when a Thomas flat route picked up just one yard, on a third-and-3 Thomas drop and on a third-and-2 throw from an empty set that Lawrence sailed whereas making an attempt to hit backup tight finish Johnny Mundt.
Liam Coen nonetheless appears to be discovering the fitting locations to suit his gamers on offense. Mundt might be not the man you need cut up out catching hitches on third down. I’m fairly certain I noticed a Hunter Lengthy selection route earlier this season. The Jags began the season with Thomas operating loads of in-breaking routes and struggling earlier than modifying his route tree. Hunter’s position has appeared to fluctuate from week to week, although he did have his greatest sport as a professional in London, turning 14 targets into eight catches for 101 yards and a rating. And Travis Etienne Jr., who was drafted two teaching regimes in the past for his relationship with Lawrence and talent as a go catcher, has 14 catches for 80 yards.
There’s expertise right here, however the Jags make too many errors to reliably and persistently win video games with their offense proper now. The protection has proved its means to prepared the ground, nevertheless it’s all the time going to be robust for groups to drive a number of takeaways each week. When the onus has fallen on the offense, the Jags have typically fallen aside this season. Till they clear issues up, that’s not going to vary.
What we stated in September: “They have a clear path to the top seed in the AFC.”
The Payments are on what turned a well-timed bye this week, however after a disappointing loss to the Falcons on “Monday Night Football” final week, their sudden downshift is value discussing right here.
When Buffalo rolled off a dramatic comeback win over the rival Ravens within the opener, it regarded just like the Payments had been in nice place to verify the convention bracket would experience by way of Buffalo. The Chiefs would land at 0-2, the Ravens would ultimately fall all the best way to 1-5, and the Payments had what gave the impression to be a really beneficiant schedule. Having to face the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots and Falcons earlier than the Week 7 bye, it regarded like Buffalo may not have a lot hassle beginning 7-0. Throw in a win in opposition to Carolina on additional relaxation in Week 8, and Payments followers might envision a world the place they had been 8-0 earlier than internet hosting the Chiefs in early November.
Effectively, schedules generally is a humorous factor. The Payments did win their first 4 video games over that span, though the Dolphins put up a battle in Western New York in Week 3, and the Saints received inside two factors throughout the fourth quarter earlier than Josh Allen ultimately pulled away. Just a little sloppy, maybe, however the Payments had been stacking wins, and that’s what mattered.
After which the stack fell over. The Payments couldn’t get into prime gear in opposition to a feisty Patriots group, and Drake Maye made a few big-time performs on the ultimate drive, which resulted in a 52-yard area aim by Andy Borregales that handed the Payments their first lack of the season. Every week later, the offense couldn’t get comfy whereas dealing with a Falcons group that had been blown out by the Panthers earlier within the season, with the Payments mustering simply two scores in a 24-14 defeat. All of the sudden, 4-0 was 4-2, and the Payments had been out of the highest spot within the AFC.
Breaking Information from Adam Schefter
What has gone improper for the Payments? I’ll begin with the best doable clarification: They’ve been capable of lean on a components that no one else within the league has managed to match, and that components has come undone, particularly over the previous two video games. If anybody is able to rounding again into that kind, it’s the Payments, however what they had been doing was principally unprecedented in league historical past.
It’s the turnovers. The offense merely by no means gave away the soccer. Between their bye week in November final yr and the win over the Dolphins, the Payments performed 12 video games (together with playoffs). Their offense turned the ball over precisely one time. That has by no means occurred earlier than, and it has by no means even been approached. No one else in league historical past has had a stretch of 12 video games with fewer than 4 turnovers on offense, and the group that pulled that off was final season’s Eagles.
We dwell in an period the place turnovers are at historic lows, however NFL groups aren’t supposed to have the ability to play three months of soccer and switch the ball over one time. That interception, which got here final yr in opposition to the Patriots, was a third-and-16 deep ball from Allen that was picked off ultimately zone and amounted to an arm punt. The Payments primarily had not handled a significant turnover since their Week 11 sport in opposition to the Chiefs.
Over the previous three video games, the Payments have six turnovers. Allen threw an interception in opposition to the Saints when he couldn’t step right into a throw to get as a lot as he needed on a gap shot, permitting Jonas Sanker to make a pleasant play for his first profession INT. And as soon as that occurred, all of a sudden, the spell appeared to be damaged. Allen made an terrible choice to drive a throw into double protection within the crimson zone for one more decide. One other compressed pocket led to an impacted throw and a decide on the finish of the primary half in opposition to the Falcons, whereas one other Allen go was tipped and picked within the ultimate minute to seal their 24-14 loss.
Past Allen, the Payments fumbled an change on a jet sweep and couldn’t fall on the soccer in opposition to Atlanta, whereas a Keon Coleman fumble contained in the 10-yard line gave the Patriots a vital brief area early of their street win. The Payments had one other ball hit the turf in opposition to the Falcons on a third-and-1 jet sweep to Elijah Moore, and whereas he recovered the fumble, he was stopped behind the road for a loss.
A few of that is Allen throwing in unexpectedly detrimental sport scripts. And a few of it was their luck being sure to vary; throughout that 12-game streak, the Payments recovered 11 of their very own fumbles on the offensive facet of the ball. A few of these are dangerous exchanges which can be likelier to finish up again with the offense than different fumbles within the open area, however the Payments couldn’t depend on constantly falling on the ball.
With Allen taking sacks at traditionally low charges for many of final season and the early a part of this season, and coordinator Joe Brady being very comfy going for it on fourth down, the Payments had been an much more intense model of the constructive play machine I referred to earlier with the Chiefs. Over our 12-game span, Allen took sacks on simply 3.1% of his dropbacks, which he greater than made up for together with his means to increase performs and scramble for important yardage.
play
0:52
Jeff Saturday: Payments’ loss to Falcons a nasty signal
Jeff Saturday explains his considerations in regards to the Payments after their loss to the Falcons.
Along with the six turnovers over the previous three weeks, Allen has taken eight sacks at a 9.2% charge that just about triples what he had been doing over the prior three months. Once more, sport script issues right here, however there’s a a lot completely different components underpinning the Payments’ offense from the one which had led Allen to the MVP nod final season.
With Allen avoiding sacks and making so many out-of-structure performs, he was the uncommon quarterback who was higher below strain than he was figuring out of a clear pocket. Once more taking a look at that span, Allen’s 87.6 QBR below strain was almost 15 factors higher than that of anyone else. Over the previous three video games, with sacks and takeaways turning into a problem? Allen’s QBR has dropped to 12.2 below strain, twenty fifth amongst quarterbacks. He has gone 8-of-21 for 90 yards, a landing throw and three picks over that span.
In case your offense isn’t a relentless on-schedule machine that by no means will get off observe, you must create explosive performs on offense to outlive. Allen’s clearly able to doing that, however the sport scripts and the added yardage wanted for conversions leaned into Buffalo’s lack of playmakers within the passing sport. James Prepare dinner III has been superb this season, and there have been considerations that the Payments aren’t getting him the ball typically sufficient, however Brady has already leaned extra closely into the run. The Payments are 18th in neutral-script run charge on early downs, simply narrowly off from seventeenth the yr prior. Even throughout this tough patch, the Payments are second within the NFL in success charge on offense.
The Payments’ offense wants extra explosives and fewer takeaways. However the Payments’ protection must go in the wrong way. If something, the protection has been extra depending on forcing turnovers in recent times to thrive. Earlier this yr, I wrote about the way it’s troublesome to maintain turnover charges within the prime 5 on protection, simply given how a lot variance can swap takeaway figures.
Effectively, listed below are two essential rankings for the Payments. The primary one is how typically they ended opposing drives with takeaways. The second is the place they ranked in factors allowed per possession on drives that didn’t finish with a fumble or interception. You’ll discover a sudden drop-off:
The Payments’ protection over the previous 5 years
Season
Turnover charge
Opponent factors/drive(no turnover)
2021
No. 7
No. 1
2022
No. 5
No. 7
2023
No. 1
No. 7
2024
No. 1
No. 25
2025
No. 24
No. 18
This was a superb protection between 2021 and 2023. In 2024? The Payments weren’t nice at stopping opposing offenses, however they created extra turnovers than some other group within the league on a per-drive foundation, so the stops they did give you had been disproportionately precious.
This yr, although, the Payments have solely 5 takeaways in six video games. They’ve but to have a multiturnover sport on protection after producing 10 of them within the 2024 common season, 9 of which yielded Payments victories. They’ve misplaced the turnover battle in consecutive weeks after successful or tying it in each one in all their regular-season and postseason video games of final season.
Strain hasn’t been an issue for the Payments, as a resurgent yr from Joey Bosa has helped Buffalo maintain the league’s second-best strain charge this season. With out strain? The Payments have been putty. They’re twenty eighth in opponent QBR allowed with none type of strain getting residence, simply forward of the Commanders, Cowboys, Titans and Ravens — all of whom are going by way of their very own crises within the secondary.
The Payments are going by way of one as nicely, even when coach Sean McDermott refuses to acknowledge as a lot. This merely has not been a unit as much as their requirements. A few of that has been injury-related; the Payments haven’t had first-round decide Maxwell Hairston, who has been out all season up to now with a knee damage. And in flip, veteran Tre’Davious White — a cap casualty in Buffalo two years in the past — has allowed a 100.6 passer ranking, a determine that doesn’t embrace the go interference penalty he took ultimately zone in opposition to the Patriots to assist arrange a rating on the finish of the primary half.
The safeties have been each bit as disappointing, and there isn’t the identical damage excuse. Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp had been Buffalo’s two finest safeties on paper, they usually’ve been on the sphere all season. They’re simply not capable of make performs. Rapp couldn’t even get shut sufficient to make deal with makes an attempt at occasions on Derrick Henry within the opener, and Bishop has made each psychological and tackling errors. By means of two seasons, his profession missed deal with charge is sort of 12%, an unsustainable quantity for any security. It’s one factor to take a troublesome angle and miss a deal with on Bijan Robinson‘s 81-yard landing scamper, however Bishop whiffed on a deal with of Stefon Diggs within the fourth quarter of the Patriots sport, turning what ought to have been a 6-yard achieve on a third-and-5 right into a 30-yard achieve and a first-and-goal alternative. The Patriots scored a landing to go up 10 and by no means trailed the remainder of the best way.
There are two methods to go from right here. One is to get again on the previous components — dominate the turnover battle, remove the detrimental performs and win by making fewer errors than their opponents. The opposite is to discover a new components. The Payments can determine different methods to win, however with a resurgent Chiefs group coming to city in two weeks, they should discover or redefine their id and quick.
What we stated in September: “The Daniel Jones-led offense is a flash in the pan.”
Nope. After their 38-point shellacking of the Chargers on Sunday afternoon, I’m unsure how one can actually poke many holes in what the Colts are doing on offense. They’re the very best offense within the league, and it actually isn’t significantly shut. They’re scoring 3.5 factors per possession, and by that metric, the second-placed Chiefs are nearer to thirteenth than they’re to the Colts in first.
Your League, Your Guidelines
Create a league and customise league dimension, scoring and guidelines to play within the league you wish to play in.
Create a league right this moment!
The Colts additionally lead the league in EPA per play, forward of the Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers and Lions. It would really feel as if that’s going to fade, and there aren’t any ensures that the Colts would be the finest offense in soccer over the remainder of the season, however we’ve now seen them dominate opposing defenses for 419 snaps in 2025. And whereas seven video games isn’t even half of a season of knowledge, it’s normally sufficient to know {that a} group isn’t about to all of a sudden collapse and fall to the underside half of the league.
Going again by way of 2010, the league chief in EPA per play after seven weeks has typically continued to play nicely all through the rest of the season. They’ve, on common, been the league’s seventh-best offense from Week 8 onward. No EPA chief has been worse than 14th in EPA per play after Week 7 onward. That group, the 2012 Giants, completed the common season ninth in EPA per play over your complete yr. They’re the one chief by way of seven weeks since 2010 that didn’t end the common season within the prime 5.
Barring an damage to Jones, which would depart the Colts with rookie Riley Leonard below middle, the Colts don’t have some type of deadly flaw or underlying metric ready to trace towards their collapse. They’ve recovered three of 4 fumbles on offense, however the sign there may be fumbling solely 4 occasions in seven video games, which is spectacular. They’re third within the league in third down conversion charge and seventh in crimson zone landing charge, that are on the excessive facet however hardly out of whack for an offense that’s rolling on early downs and out of doors the crimson zone, too. Will the Colts go 17-for-17 in goal-to-go conditions the remainder of the yr? Most likely not, however they don’t want to try this to be an excellent offense.
Among the arguments that might have been truthful to deliver up in regards to the Colts throughout their scorching begin in September don’t actually apply now. Let’s run by way of them:
They’ve confronted a straightforward schedule. It was definitely one factor when the Colts dropped 33 factors on a hapless Dolphins protection within the opener. Even then, it was clear that Miami had punted on constructing an NFL-caliber secondary and had been going to be a goal for opposing offenses all season. The Browns, who’ve been an offensive mess all season, scored 24 factors in opposition to the Dolphins on offense yesterday. The Panthers ran for 239 yards on Miami. No one must be launching their nice offensive marketing campaign on beating the Dolphins.
Effectively, in Week 2, the Colts scored 29 factors and racked up 473 internet yards on the Broncos, who’ve an amazing protection. Whereas Indy has loved among the league’s simpler defenses (Titans, Raiders) round a 20-point, three-turnover efficiency in a loss to the Rams, Sunday was one other prove-it sport in opposition to a Chargers protection that ranked tenth in EPA per play earlier than dealing with the Colts. Indianapolis had what was arguably its finest offensive efficiency of the season, scoring 38 factors and topping 400 yards.
play
0:20
Daniel Jones flicks TD go to Michael Pittman Jr.
Daniel Jones connects with Michael Pittman Jr. to increase the Colts’ lead over the Chargers.
The Colts began the sport with three landing drives, all of which went 70 yards or extra, together with a 17-play epic within the second quarter. After a punt, they kicked a area aim and drove downfield for 2 extra touchdowns. After one other punt, the Colts chewed up the ultimate three-and-a-half minutes of clock to seal a two-TD victory.
It’s one factor to spike a few massive performs or make the most of a couple of brief fields, however the Colts had been persistently explosive and capable of create massive play alternatives all through this sport. Even dealing with a Chargers group that has a quarterback and a set of receivers recognized for his or her means to create these massive performs, the Colts had been simply the extra explosive group of the 2.
After Justin Herbert and the L.A. offense struggled to piece collectively an 11-play, 76-yard drive to get inside two scores within the third quarter, the Colts simply hopped on the sphere and moved the ball with ease. Tyler Warren leaked into the flat, shrugged off a deal with from security Derwin James Jr. and turned upfield for 29 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. picked up 11 yards. Alec Pierce went for 14. And with the Colts simply getting into area aim vary, Jonathan Taylor made up for an earlier run for no achieve on the drive by taking the ball 19 yards to the home. They moved 73 yards on 5 performs, merely overwhelming an excellent Chargers protection alongside the best way.
Jones isn’t going to maintain making this many massive performs. At his finest in New York below Brian Daboll, Jones had developed into a degree guard and fast distributor. Daboll dialed up run-pass choices, quick-game stuff and one-read ideas that allowed Jones to both get the ball out rapidly or get to scrambling. That offense labored in 2022, whilst Jones threw the shortest common go of anyone within the league, nevertheless it was much less efficient in 2023 and 2024.
There aren’t any such limitations this time round. Jones is averaging 8.4 air yards per throw, the seventh-highest determine for any quarterback within the NFL. He’s a comparatively modest twelfth within the league in yards per try on deep passes, however Jones doesn’t should be early-career Mahomes or Philip Rivers by way of selecting groups aside downfield to thrive on offense. He simply must be ok to present opposing defenses pause, and Jones has greater than met that prerequisite this season.
Shane Steichen has helped make life simpler for Jones in working off play-action. Jones is taking a play-fake on 33.5% of his dropbacks this season, comfortably the best charge within the league. (Second, coincidentally, is Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.) Owing partially to how devastating the Colts’ run sport has been, Jones is averaging 9.5 yards per dropback with play-action this season, the fifth-best charge within the league. On Sunday, Jones was 10-of-13 with play-action for 130 yards and a landing go.
There’s no disgrace in saying that the Colts playmakers are serving to gasoline a few of these massive performs with what they do after the catch, too. Taylor has been the very best again in soccer (alongside Bijan Robinson), whereas each one in all Indy’s playmakers has leveled up and appears as in the event that they’re a tier above the place they had been with Anthony Richardson Sr. at quarterback.
play
0:28
Daniel Jones and Tyler Warren hyperlink up for one more Colts TD
Daniel Jones fires one other dart, this time to Tyler Warren, because the Colts lengthen their lead over the Chargers.
I’m unsure any offensive participant has been extra enjoyable to look at from a movie perspective this season than Warren, whose position within the offense may as nicely be Steichen’s Coach of the Yr submission. No one performs extra significant roles inside the offense and will get the ball from a wider vary of locations, with Puka Nacua as the one potential competitors for that title. Warren has picked up first downs operating the triple possibility and operating the famed Nacua Sail route out of the backfield by way of the offensive line. He has been a lead blocker and a Wildcat quarterback. And in opposition to the Cardinals, Warren lined up because the wing tight finish after which took the handoff on a counter on third-and-5 for a 6-yard run, organising his landing catch on the following first-and-goal snap.
Jones will take too many sacks. The Broncos and Chargers don’t precisely have mild go rushes, and Jones has managed to outlive. The identical quarterback who ran an 8.5% sack charge in New York, together with a 15.8% mark in a six-game pattern in 2023, is taking sacks on simply 2.6% of his dropbacks this season. That’s the very best mark within the league, and it is perhaps one of many single greatest enhancements any participant has constructed from season-to-season.
There was a bit of little bit of magic the place gamers collide, and Jones one way or the other manages to keep away from the fray and run ahead for a primary down, however he has legitimately been superb about discovering the road between extending performs with the hopes of making one thing explosive and giving up on a play on the proper time. Jones has held onto the ball for 5 seconds or extra simply 3 times all season. For context, Caleb Williams and Cam Ward are tied for the league lead with 20 such performs.
Jones can also be much less concerned within the run sport than he has been in previous years. Taking kneel-downs out of the equation, Jones has 22 carries for 86 yards by way of six video games. These numbers aren’t going to look good in comparison with what the 2019 first-round decide was capable of do at his finest with the Giants, nevertheless it’s additionally a safer strategy to dwell. Jones took hits on almost 31% of his dropbacks between 2023 and 2024 in New York, a determine topped solely by Justin Fields. That determine is down to simply over 21% this season. Fewer hits imply fewer alternatives to get injured.
Accidents shall be an issue. No one can predict accidents, nevertheless it’s truthful to at the least be aware that Jones has performed only one full season of soccer in his professional profession because the starter with out lacking time. That risk goes to hold over the Colts, particularly provided that the untested Leonard is one dangerous Jones hit away from being their beginning quarterback. On the similar time, including a veteran with a wholesome résumé isn’t a assure, both; Kirk Cousins had been wholesome for a lot of the prior decade earlier than tearing an Achilles. And Indianapolis’ O-line has been wonderful all through the season. Exterior of shedding Taylor or one thing, the Colts and Jones must be wonderful.
They gained’t be capable of throw in detrimental sport scripts. This may find yourself being true. The issue is that no one is ready to get out to a large enough result in discover out. Jones hasn’t taken a single snap trailing by a couple of rating all season. After they have fallen behind, Jones and Taylor have executed an amazing job of getting the Colts instantly again into the sport. And as soon as they’ve gotten forward, Jones and Taylor have sometimes executed a superb job of retaining them there.
play
1:13
Jonathan Taylor goes off with a trio of TDs for Colts
Jonathan Taylor torches the Chargers’ protection, discovering the tip zone 3 times for the Colts.
At 6-1, the Colts are all of a sudden in first place in your complete AFC, not to mention the South. Jones has been one of many gamers of the yr up to now. It’s rapidly turning into harder to poke holes in his success with Steichen and Indianapolis. With one other spectacular win over one of many league’s extra imposing defenses, Jones is firmly establishing himself as a part of the quarterback reclamation class of 2025. He may even find yourself being valedictorian.
