Greg WyshynskiJun 3, 2025, 09:30 AM ET
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Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL author.
I wish to see Connor McDavid elevate the Stanley Cup.
I wish to see all that regular-season {hardware} — 5 scoring titles, three Hart trophies as league MVP, the four-time NHLPA most excellent participant — metaphorically traded for a Stanley Cup ring, like if you flip in smaller prizes for a bigger one throughout a carnival recreation. I would like him rewarded for his 10 years of attempting to will the Edmonton Oilers to their first Stanley Cup since 1990. These followers deserve one other celebration, with McDavid because the grasp of ceremonies.
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I wish to see him completely overwrite these photographs of himself as an empty husk after Sport 7 final season, his soul seemingly drained from his physique by a collection so emotionally erratic that he was voted the playoffs’ most useful participant moments after shedding within the championship finale.
I wish to see the laziest counterargument to McDavid’s standing as a hockey deity — that he “never won the Cup” — rendered immaterial, as it will definitely was for gamers comparable to Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. I would like that cathartic scream when he picks up the chalice for the primary time. The king deserves his crowning second.
Sadly, what I would like and what the Florida Panthers are keen to provide McDavid aren’t in any respect aligned. They disadvantaged him of his Stanley Cup win final season. They’ve going to do it once more on this Stanley Cup Last rematch, regardless of the sportsbooks and the vast majority of pundits believing that it’s McDavid’s second.
Listed below are 5 causes the Panthers are seemingly headed for a repeat:
Florida is best than final season’s Cup winner
It’s simple that the Oilers are a greater staff than they had been final season.
Edmonton’s roster is deeper and extra cohesive than the 2024 Western Convention champions. They’re scoring extra (4.06 objectives per recreation) than final season. Their 5-on-5 protection is remarkably higher: 1.89 objectives per 60 minutes, down from 2.55 final postseason.
Maybe probably the most spectacular a part of the Oilers’ defensive recreation has been the power to shut out video games — witness their shot suppression within the final three wins over the Dallas Stars. They had been a minus-6 within the third interval final postseason; they’re a plus-11 this season by means of 16 video games. The one downgrade year-over-year is their penalty kill, which has given up 16 objectives in 16 video games whereas it gave up 4 in 25 video games final season. One assumes the return of Mattias Ekholm will assist.
However the Panthers are additionally higher.
Like, lots higher. Which is frightening.
Breaking Information from Emily Kaplan
Florida is a plus-27 in purpose differential by means of 17 video games, after ending at a plus-11 final season. The Panthers are scoring extra (3.88) and giving up much less (2.29). At 5-on-5, they’ve gone from 2.39 objectives per 60 minutes final season to three.53 objectives per 60 this season. Their energy play is up 12 months over 12 months — one thing to remember if the Oilers maintain struggling on the PK — and the penalty kill is about the identical.
Additionally they upgraded in just a few roster spots through the season, primarily with the additions of Seth Jones to their second protection pairing and Brad Marchand to their third line.
Final season, Florida paired Niko Mikkola with Brandon Montour, a superb puck-moving defenseman who parlayed his success with Florida right into a free agent take care of the Seattle Kraken. The Panthers registered 49% of the shot makes an attempt and averaged 1.84 objectives for and a pair of.03 objectives in opposition to per 60 minutes when that pair was on the ice. Mikkola’s pairing with Jones is a marked improve: 56% of the shot makes an attempt, 4.14 objectives for and 1.69 objectives in opposition to per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The duo has an anticipated objectives in opposition to of 1.48 per 60 minutes — Montour and Mikkola had been at 2.37 final postseason.
That’s not simply the addition of Jones to the Panthers’ high 4. Mikkola has leveled up into one thing particular, defending higher and flashing a stunning quantity of offensive velocity for a 6-foot-6 defender nicknamed “The Condor.”
“Meeks has been a beast. All playoffs, he’s everywhere,” Marchand mentioned. “I don’t think he gets enough credit. He’s extremely tough to play against. Then when you play with him, and you realize that he’s not flashy, but he closes so quick, he’s always on top of guys and he’s physical.”
“The Condor” Niko Mikkola has fairly the wingspan, which he makes use of to nice impact in stopping opponents. Carmen Mandato/Getty Photographs
The addition of Marchand has additionally made the Panthers a extra harmful staff than final season — and never solely by way of what’s mentioned on the ice throughout video games. The third line of their Cup-winning staff was anchored by heart Anton Lundell and winger Eetu Luostarinen, a stable duo that skated with quite a lot of wingers. Placing Marchand with these two after buying him on the commerce deadline from Boston improved the staff in a number of methods.
Marchand, Lundell and Luostarinen have earned 53% of the shot makes an attempt at 5-on-5. They common 4.2 objectives and 0.82 objectives in opposition to per 60 minutes. Marchand has 14 factors in 17 video games. Luostarinen has 13 factors in 17 video games. Lundell has 5 objectives and 7 assists, and continues to provide this staff preposterous heart depth as kind of a “Baby Barkov” for the Panthers.
By solidifying that line with Marchand, it permits the Panthers to maintain their high six solidified. One duo is Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. The opposite duo is Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. They shuttle Carter Verhaeghe, one of many playoffs’ most clutch scorers, and Evan Rodrigues, an analytics darling, between these traces on the wing. Each mixtures have yielded outcomes for Florida.
However past what’s taking place on the ice — or maybe as a catalyst for it — the Panthers are taking part in with the poise and confidence of a champion, fortified by a proof of idea that comes solely after a Stanley Cup skate.
Bobrovsky vs. Skinner
These two goalies have had comparable postseason journeys: Inconsistent and middling outcomes early within the playoffs, adopted by dominant runs that started in the midst of the second spherical and carried by means of to the Stanley Cup Last.
“Middling” might be placing it kindly for Skinner’s playoffs, the place he was benched within the first spherical and acquired again into the playoffs solely when Calvin Pickard was injured in opposition to the Vegas Golden Knights. However from Sport 4 in opposition to Vegas to the Cup Last, he’s been scorching scorching: 6-1, .944 save share, 1.41 goals-against common and three shutouts.
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Stuart Skinner makes an unbelievable diving save
Stuart Skinner makes a wonderful stick save to maintain the sport tied 2-2 for the Oilers vs. the Golden Knights.
Bobrovsky wasn’t all that nice early both till a Sport 4 shutout in opposition to the Maple Leafs. After that, he went 7-2 with a .944 save share, a 1.34 goals-against common and two shutouts.
The Florida netminder had a chaotic Stanley Cup Last final season, however ended it with a 23-save effort at dwelling in Sport 7 to clinch the Cup. It was the form of recreation that strengthened the “Playoff Bob” legend that the Oilers will little doubt hear about once more this season.
Averaged out, Skinner and Bobrovsky had been each at alternative ranges for the totality of the playoffs in accordance with Stathletes. Over their previous 5 video games, Bobrovsky (2.35 objectives saved above anticipated) has been higher analytically than Skinner (1.89).
Skinner is taking part in properly sufficient the place he shouldn’t lose this collection for Edmonton, which is basically all they’ll ask from him and Pickard. However Bobrovsky, assuming he’s in “Playoff Bob” mode, can win this collection for Florida. That’s the distinction.
The Panthers are highway warriors
Probably the most important change year-over-year between these groups is that the Oilers have home-ice benefit this time. Sadly, that may play into the Panthers’ arms.
Florida is 8-2 on the highway, which is tied for the sixth-best profitable share in NHL postseason historical past (minimal eight highway video games). Their 4.80 objectives per recreation would make them the highest-scoring highway playoff staff in Stanley Cup historical past (once more, minimal eight highway video games). That plus-27 purpose differential within the postseason? It has all come on the highway, the place they’ve scored 48 occasions and given up 21 objectives. They’re even (18 for and 18 in opposition to) at dwelling.
“It’s us against the world. That kind of feeling,” defenseman Gustav Forsling mentioned.
There are two clear causes for the Panthers’ highway dominance. The primary is that Florida is at its best possible when it trims the flourish out of its offensive recreation to develop into a blunt instrument.
“Our mindset is just play as simple as we can,” Verhaeghe mentioned. “Get the puck deep, get on their defense and forecheck, which is our strength.”
The opposite cause: The Panthers completely like to suck the vitality out of a highway area and ship the opposing followers dwelling feeling depressing.
“It’s fun when you’re on the road and it goes quiet. It feels like we’re doing our job,” Verhaeghe mentioned.
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Fortenbaugh’s finest wager for Panthers-Oilers Stanley Cup rematch
Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he’s taking the Panthers to repeat as champions in opposition to the Oilers.
Aleksander Barkov
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can exert their will on a interval, a recreation and a collection. McDavid is coming off a collection in opposition to Dallas by which he had 9 factors in 5 video games, for instance.
Florida has a kind of guys, too. Barkov doesn’t get talked about with the identical breathless reward because the Oilers’ duo or Auston Matthews or Nathan MacKinnon or Sidney Crosby. He has damaged 90 factors solely as soon as in his profession, though his points-per-game charge between 2017-25 (1.11) ranks him twelfth amongst all skaters, proper between Crosby and Cale Makar. He’s not probably the most vocal man, nor does he have probably the most boisterous persona — Panthers coach Paul Maurice joked that Barkov is “not doing a podcast when he’s done [playing].”
All of these gamers talked about are Hart Trophy guys. Barkov is a Selke Trophy man, having been named because the NHL’s finest defensive ahead for the third time in his profession this week. You’ll be able to’t be each. Since the perfect defensive ahead award was first handed out in 1977-78, solely two gamers have ever gained a Hart and a Selke sooner or later of their careers: Sergei Fedorov and Bobby Clarke. As of this season, the very best Barkov ever positioned for MVP was sixth in 2020-21.
However he’s simply as a lot of a recreation changer and collection shifter as another celebrity, solely his capability to take action generally begins within the defensive zone. In opposition to Edmonton final postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 with Barkov on the ice throughout these seven video games, incomes the vast majority of the shot makes an attempt and scoring possibilities.
He can create one thing out of nothing together with his puck management and enormous body.
Witness the collection clincher in opposition to Carolina:
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Verhaeghe places Panthers again in entrance
Carter Verhaeghe fires dwelling a big-time purpose to provide the Panthers a lead late within the third interval.
Rodrigues mentioned that purpose “speaks to who [Barkov] is as a person” after Sport 5.
“He’s so even-keeled,” Rodrigues mentioned. “Doesn’t get too high, doesn’t get too low, and just when games get intense and very emotional, he’s able to play his game and just do the right things over and over again.”
Which brings us to maybe probably the most salient level on this prediction.
They’ll take what Edmonton provides them
This could be hyperbolic however that’s by no means stopped me earlier than: I believe the Panthers are mainly constructed to be an Oilers countermeasure.
They will rating with the Oilers. They will defend nearly as good as any staff within the NHL. They’ve impactful star gamers and efficient function gamers. They’re unfazed by chaotic highway environments. They’re well-coached. They play with a physicality, swagger and antagonism. They will dish it out and take it after which dish it out once more.
However in addition they have that particular trait shared with different nice NHL champions, which is that they’re keen to win on their phrases or on no matter phrases the opponents will set for them.
Take into consideration the Western Convention finals. Take into consideration how the Dallas Stars felt like they’d toppled into an abyss when the Oilers would rating the primary purpose. Take into consideration how they might ship solely 4 pictures on Skinner within the third interval of must-win video games, annoyed to no finish that they couldn’t play their recreation.
The Panthers don’t get flustered. They don’t lose their confidence or have their hope extinguished if issues aren’t to their liking. They maximize the alternatives they earn. They’re meticulous and affected person the place others are harried and panicked.
Carolina was a stingy defensive staff. The Panthers waited for his or her possibilities to pounce, and after they did, the video games modified dramatically. In every of their wins over the Hurricanes within the Jap Convention finals, the Panthers scored a number of objectives inside 4 minutes of one another. Florida is probably the most “blood in the water” staff within the NHL. In Sport 3, it was 5 objectives in 9:08. In Sport 5, it was three objectives in 4:36.
“We go into the game, we know exactly what we need to do,” Barkov mentioned. “The confidence level is high and everyone’s having fun right now.”
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Panthers deal with Hurricanes in 5 to advance to Stanley Cup Last
The Florida Panthers win 5-3 in a back-and-forth Sport 5 battle vs. the Hurricanes to advance to their third consecutive Stanley Cup Last.
Prediction: Panthers in six
GM Invoice Zito and his workers have constructed a Stanley Cup champion whose core gamers have the postseason competence and drive that different groups desperately attempt to import into their lineups on the deadline each season. The Panthers don’t want an infusion of “rings in the room.” They virtually all have them now. Playoff self-assurance is a nucleotide of their hockey DNA.
Their “win at all costs” type has earned them detractors, but it surely has additionally earned them three consecutive journeys to the Stanley Cup Last.
Primarily based on the Panthers’ latest play and their benefits on this matchup, it’ll additionally earn them a second straight skate with Stanley.
And if I’m mistaken, then Connor McDavid has his championship second. Which might be superior, too.
