Eileen Higgins wasn’t merely elected Miami’s first lady mayor on Tuesday: She can even be the primary Democrat to carry the workplace since 1997, ending a virtually 30-year drought for the social gathering. Higgins beat former metropolis supervisor Emilio Gonzalez, her Donald Trump-backed opponent, by nearly 20 factors, 59-41.
It’s the form of large Democratic overperformance we’re seeing in every single place, and it’s a shot of vitality for town of Miami and Florida’s long-demoralized Democratic group.
Two main forces contributed to the dramatic Democratic victory, and each ought to terrify an already skittish Republican Get together heading into 2026’s midterm elections.
Miami mayor candidate Emilio Gonzalez, a former metropolis supervisor backed by President Donald Trump, talks with journalists and supporters at a watch social gathering as he awaits the shut of voting in Miami’s mayoral runoff on Dec. 9.
Voter turnout for Miami’s mayoral races is at all times low, and for many years that performed instantly into Republican arms. Miami’s voter registration leans Democratic, however core GOP constituencies—particularly the politically dominant Cuban group—have been masters of exhibiting up. Venezuelan and Nicaraguan immigrants, animated by relentless Republican messaging that painted Democrats as “communists,” additionally grew to become dependable GOP blocs.
And the system itself helped. Elections are held in off-years, with runoffs touchdown deep into the vacation season. The Republican-Cuban machine liked that setup. In 2021, Republicans received the mayoralty 79-12 with fewer than 25,000 votes solid regardless of a inhabitants of 442,000, per 2020 census stats.
This time, turnout was nonetheless anemic—simply 36,000 ballots solid in a metropolis of half 1,000,000—however one thing exceptional occurred: Even in an election surroundings tailored to learn Republicans, their vote collapsed. The GOP candidate’s vote whole fell from 21,485 in 2021 to only 7,258 on Tuesday, regardless of the loud backing of each Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Republicans merely didn’t get their voters to the polls, whereas Democrats turned theirs out. That alone is a recipe for extra upsets in 2026.
However what if Republicans did end up—and their votes flipped?
Higgins ran laborious on Trump’s ongoing ICE raids and on DeSantis’ embrace of that cruelty, together with his grotesque Alligator Alcatraz detention heart.
“We are facing rhetoric from elected officials that is so dehumanizing and cruel, especially against immigrant populations,” Higgins instructed the Related Press after her victory. “The residents of Miami were ready to be done with that.”
Miami voters actually have been, and it doesn’t appear like a case of base turnout. All indications are that Republican voters flipped.
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“If you thought the raw percentages looked bad for Republicans, this map is even more alarming,” tweeted Miami-based information scientist Raidel Nabut. “In the Miami mayoral race, Democrats erased the GOP’s gains from last year in Shenandoah, The Roads, and parts of Little Havana. Cuban precincts shifted 15–20 points to the left and Republicans were crushed in Anglo areas like Coconut Grove.”
Little Havana has lengthy been a fortress of Cuban American Republicanism, rooted in many years of preferential immigration therapy and hardened by Chilly Warfare-era grievances. That preferential therapy resulted in 2017 underneath President Barack Obama, but Cuban immigrants nonetheless benefited from the Biden administration’s Humanitarian Parole Program for Cubans, Venezuelans, and Nicaraguans.
None of that Biden-era goodwill mattered in 2024, when all three teams voted closely for Trump. He thanked them by ending the parole program and launching deportations of all three communities (see right here, right here, and right here). Cubans, lengthy accustomed to particular therapy from the U.S. authorities, took explicit offense.
Purchaser’s regret shortly adopted. A Could ballot from Florida Worldwide College discovered deep discontent among the many Sunshine State’s Venezuelan diaspora.
“[O]f the Venezuelans who voted for Trump in November—often referred to as MAGAzuelans—half in the FIU survey now say they regret or have mixed feelings about their choice,” reported WLRN. “Almost 40% of them said they will in the future vote for either a Democratic, independent or non-MAGA candidate.”
Many appeared embarrassed by their authentic vote. Solely 32% of Venezuelan respondents who voted in November admitted they voted for Trump, regardless of his 61% exhibiting in Doral. A couple of-fifth refused to say whom they supported.
A July Suffolk College survey discovered broad Latino discontent as properly. A majority of respondents—52% of whom recognized as Hispanic or Latino—opposed Trump’s immigration insurance policies. Sixty-one % mentioned ICE raids had gone too far. Fifty-nine % opposed the termination of Momentary Protected Standing for Haitians. And 52% mentioned deportations of Venezuelans, Cubans, and Argentinians made them much less more likely to assist Trump going ahead.
And now now we have an precise election exhibiting a dramatic 15- to 20-point shift towards Democrats, lower than a yr into Trump’s presidency. With the financial system wobbling, mass deportations underway, and Trump’s total toxicity deepening, Republicans are watching a worsening trajectory.
Amazingly, Higgins would be the first non-Latino elected mayor since 1993. She ran towards a Latino who backed Trump’s MAGA agenda, and he or she received on the energy of the Latino vote. It’s absolute poetry.
However Trump doesn’t give a crap. He’s not on the poll once more, and the one motive he cares about Republicans in any respect is as a result of they may also help perform his agenda in Congress and in state governments.
His racism is his prime directive, and he’ll act on it even when it punishes the very communities that foolishly backed him. And the remainder of his social gathering, completely completely happy to journey his coattails for years, will now face the results of tying themselves to his bigotry.
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“When Cubans in Miami are shifting the same direction as Puerto Ricans and Dominicans in NYC, something significant is happening,” famous Latino GOP marketing consultant Mike Madrid in a tweet on X.
He wrapped it up properly: “Turns out Latinos are monolithic—they’re monolithically anti-Trump.”
