This story is the final of a sequence of state-by-state previews of the 2024 election.
Pennsylvania voters are nearly certain to play a pivotal position within the Nov. 5 basic election, with management of the White Home and each chambers of Congress and the state legislature within the stability.
With its 19 electoral votes, the commonwealth is the most important prize among the many battleground states and an necessary piece of each campaigns’ path to victory. Each Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump and their working mates have made frequent visits to the state since turning into their events’ nominees, together with occasions in Allentown, Scranton, State Faculty, Harrisburg, and others within the remaining week of October. Harris and Trump met for the primary time in Philadelphia at their sole debate in September.
Pennsylvania was one among three “blue wall” swing states that went narrowly for Trump in 2016 after nearly 30 years of voting for Democratic presidential candidates; the others have been Michigan and Wisconsin. 4 years later, Democrat Joe Biden gained all three states again for Democrats with a margin in Pennsylvania of about 80,000 votes out of greater than 6.9 million votes solid. The states stay key electoral prizes this 12 months.
RELATED STORY: Trump is already claiming voter fraud in Pennsylvania
Within the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey seeks a fourth time period towards Republican Dave McCormick. Casey, the son and namesake of a former two-term governor, has some of the recognizable names in state politics—however this 12 months he faces what has formed as much as be the hardest race of his Senate profession.
Republican Pennsylvania Senate candidate David McCormick in Pittsburgh on Sept. 21, 2023, and opponent Sen. Bob Casey in Chicago on Aug. 22, 2024.
The seat is important to Democratic hopes of holding management of the narrowly divided chamber. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Military fight veteran, ran for Pennsylvania’s different U.S. Senate seat in 2022 however misplaced the GOP nomination to Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose to Democrat John Fetterman.
Additional down the poll, a handful of aggressive races may play a task in figuring out management of the U.S. Home. Within the seventh Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild seeks a fourth full time period towards Republican Ryan Mackenzie. Within the neighboring eighth Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright seeks a seventh time period towards Republican Robert Bresnahan. The seventh District in japanese Pennsylvania narrowly went for Biden in 2020, whereas voters within the eighth District, which incorporates Biden’s hometown of Scranton, most popular Trump.
Within the race to regulate the state Legislature, Democrats are defending the razor-thin state Home majority they gained in 2022 for the primary time in 12 years and have since efficiently defended in a number of particular elections. All 203 state Home seats and half the 50 state Senate seats are up for election this 12 months. Republicans have a majority within the state Senate.
Right here’s a take a look at what to anticipate within the 2024 election in Pennsylvania:
Election Day
Nov. 5.
Ballot closing time
8 p.m. ET.
Presidential electoral votes
19 awarded to statewide winner.
Key races and candidates
President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Inexperienced).
U.S. Senate: Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) and three others.
seventh Congressional District: Wild (D) vs. Mackenzie (D).
eighth Congressional District: Cartwright (D) vs. Bresnahan (R).
Different races of curiosity
U.S. Home, Legal professional Normal, Auditor Normal, Treasurer, state Senate and state Home.
Resolution Notes
A number of elements contribute to a comparatively sluggish vote counting course of in Pennsylvania. Underneath Pennsylvania regulation, elections officers should wait till 7 a.m. ET on Election Day earlier than they’ll start to course of ballots solid by mail and put together them to be counted. The discharge of mail voting outcomes can’t start till after polls have closed. Due to the general quantity of mail ballots—they comprised nearly 1 / 4 of the full vote within the 2022 midterm elections—and the various quantities of time it takes the state’s 67 counties to tally these votes, figuring out a winner in a extremely aggressive race may take a number of days, because it did within the 2020 presidential election.
An official Pennsylvania mail-in poll in Pittsburgh, Oct. 3, 2024.
The primary vote outcomes reported after polls shut are anticipated to come back from mail ballots. Outcomes from later within the evening are anticipated to be a mixture of mail votes and votes solid in individual on Election Day. As soon as the vote counting stretches into the day after Election Day and past, the vote outcomes are as soon as once more anticipated to come back largely from mail ballots.
General, votes solid by mail have tended to favor Democrats, ever for the reason that situation of early and mail voting grew to become extremely politicized through the 2020 election. This implies the Democratic candidate in a aggressive contest may take an early lead within the vote rely within the preliminary vote reviews after polls shut, though the race could tighten significantly as extra votes are tabulated.
In 2020, Biden took an early, non permanent lead after mail voting outcomes started to be launched shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. ET. By about 10 p.m. ET, Trump took the lead as extra outcomes from Election Day voting have been launched. By early Wednesday morning, Trump led Biden by practically 700,000 votes, however that lead would progressively shrink as extra mail ballots have been tabulated. Biden finally retook the lead by Friday morning.
The suburban “collar counties” round Philadelphia are key battlegrounds and have been trending towards Democrats lately. In statewide elections, Republican candidates are inclined to win overwhelmingly in rural areas statewide, whereas Democrats depend on lopsided help in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
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Erie and Northampton counties on reverse sides of the state might also maintain clues on election evening. They’re two of solely 10 counties throughout all of the presidential battlegrounds that voted for Trump in 2016 and flipped to Biden in 2020.
In Pennsylvania, races with a vote margin of 0.5 share factors or much less are topic to an automated recount. The AP could declare a winner in a race that’s eligible for a recount if it might probably decide the lead is simply too giant for a recount or authorized problem to alter the end result.
Previous presidential outcomes
2020: Biden (D) 50%, Trump (R) 49%, AP race name: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020, 11:25 a.m. ET.
Voter registration and turnout
Registered voters: 9,036,833 (as of Oct. 14, 2024). About 44% Democrats, about 40% Republicans, about 12% unaffiliated.
Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 76% of registered voters.
Pre-Election Day voting
Votes solid earlier than Election Day 2020: about 38% of the full vote.
Votes solid earlier than Election Day 2022: about 23% of the full vote.
Votes solid earlier than Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.
How lengthy does vote-counting take?
First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 8:09 p.m. ET.
By midnight ET: about 54% of whole votes solid have been reported.
Marketing campaign Motion
Trump is already claiming voter fraud in Pennsylvania
