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Republican Matt Van Epps received a Tennessee Home particular election on Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Mark Inexperienced, who resigned in July. At first look, it’s a win for the GOP—however the margins reveal a extra difficult story than a easy Republican maintain.
Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by a mere 9 proportion factors. In 2024, Inexperienced received the district by practically 22 factors, and President Donald Trump carried it by roughly the identical margin over Democrat Kamala Harris.
In different phrases, the district swung 13 factors towards Democrats in a yr, a shift that ought to elevate alarms for Republicans, particularly in districts Trump received by single digits.
Democrat Aftyn Behn, left, and Republican Matt Van Epps, the latter of which received the particular election for Tennessee’s seventh District.
“The margins were narrowed in every county in the district,” even when Democrats didn’t win those self same counties outright, Kent Syler, a professor of political science at Center Tennessee State College, informed Each day Kos. “When you’re trying to overcome a 20-plus percentage margin, it’s hard to reverse it totally, but there were significant gains, and it continued the trend of Democrats overperforming in elections this year.”
The race unfolded shortly. Van Epps was sworn in lower than 48 hours after outcomes had been licensed—a speedy tempo in contrast with Democratic Rep. Adelita Grijalva, whose swearing-in took weeks. But the pace of official proceedings belied the competition’s competitiveness, which noticed Democrats making notable inroads in counties lengthy thought-about solidly Republican.
Turnout in Tennessee’s seventh District was unusually excessive for a particular election, approaching midterm ranges. Roughly 179,899 individuals voted—simply shy of the 180,822 ballots solid in 2022. But Van Epps obtained roughly 11,400 fewer votes than Inexperienced did in 2022, suggesting a drop in Republican enthusiasm and a surge in Democratic mobilization.
As a result of it was an off-year particular election, polling was restricted. However of the few polls launched earlier than Tuesday, most carefully tracked the ultimate outcomes.
The lone exception was an Emerson Faculty survey, which had Van Epps edging out a win by simply 2 factors. In any other case, the surveys landed near the ultimate end result, a small however welcome win for pollsters in a sort of race that’s notoriously onerous to gauge.
The result’s in step with a broader development in 2025: Democrats overperforming in particular elections and low-turnout contests. The 13-point swing in Tennessee’s seventh is barely under the 17-point common on this yr’s congressional particular elections however is on par with beneficial properties in downballot state legislative contests.
“Anytime you’re a member of the party of the president in a midterm, you should be naturally worried in marginal districts,” Syler informed Each day Kos. “The country continues to be in a bad mood, and the first person voters blame is the incumbent president. You can see it in [former President Joe] Biden’s low approval ratings, and Trump’s are low, too. That’s scary for Republicans in these districts.”
Cash poured into the race. Roughly $6 million was spent, with Republicans outspending Democrats by about $3.5 million to $2.5 million. But Van Epps’ slim margin alerts that cash alone is inadequate to ensure a secure GOP maintain, significantly in districts with energized Democratic bases.
Democrats noticed notable beneficial properties within the district’s city and suburban counties, like Montgomery and Williamson. And whereas they nonetheless improved on their 2024 margins throughout the map, rural areas remained firmly Republican.
“Democrats have to start being more competitive and actually winning in non-urban areas,” Syler mentioned. “The rural problem is a national problem, and that’s got to be addressed.”
In districts like Tennessee’s seventh, suburban shifts could make or break shut races, even when rural areas proceed to development proper.
Candidate choice can be important for Democrats heading into 2026. Behn, a former progressive organizer who beat a number of extra average Democrats within the major, was hit with a wave of Trump-aligned tremendous PAC advertisements resurfacing outdated clips of her calling herself “a very radical person.” She argues these feedback had been taken out of context, although Syler famous that her progressive profile probably boosted turnout in city pockets whereas making it tougher to attach with voters in additional rural components of the district.
Democratic congressional candidate Aftyn Behn speaks throughout a marketing campaign occasion in November.
“Her margins were incredible in places where there were Democrats,” Syler mentioned. “I don’t know that a moderate could’ve gotten any better, but Democrats have got to be able to increase their numbers in suburban and rural areas.”
“Progressives,” he added, are “selling something that’s harder for suburban and rural voters to buy.”
The excessive turnout additionally alerts a reinvigorated Democratic base. Earlier this yr, many pundits recommended Democrats had been disengaged, however the sturdy exhibiting in Tennessee factors to a motivated, organized citizens.
“There’s no doubt that the Democratic base is fired up. That’s what happens when you’re out of power, and you’re mad, and I’m certain that enthusiasm will carry forward to 2026,” Syler mentioned. “The fact that this election became such a story and so competitive and had so much money spent on it is really remarkable. Going into this, everyone thought the Republican primary would decide who would ultimately win the race, but this race just exploded.”
Traditionally, particular elections can act as bellwethers. Within the 2017-18 cycle, Democrats beat benchmarks in particular elections by about 11 factors earlier than successful the Home fashionable vote by virtually 9 factors within the 2018 midterm elections. Tennessee’s seventh mirrors that sample: a large swing leftward in a beforehand secure district, signaling early momentum for Democrats as they appear to 2026.
The outcomes reduce each methods: a warning gentle for Republicans and a welcome little bit of reassurance for Democrats. Districts that when appeared comfortably pink are exhibiting some slippage, and even locations that backed Trump by large numbers could also be extra aggressive than they appear on paper.
Because the 2026 midterms strategy, Tennessee’s seventh provides a blueprint of the political terrain forward—excessive stakes, energized voters, and an citizens more and more keen to defy expectations.
Any updates?
It’s not simply Latino voters drifting from Trump. Even components of his MAGA base are wincing after he accused a number of Democratic lawmakers of sedition and recommended they need to be put to loss of life. A brand new ballot from The Economist/YouGov discovered solely 60% of Trump’s 2024 voters assist his feedback, whereas 29% disapprove—unusually giant dissent for a gaggle that not often opposes him. It’s an early signal that even his most loyal supporters have limits. And the set off was hardly radical: A quick video from six Democratic lawmakers noting that “No one has to carry out orders that violate the law or our Constitution.”
Vibe verify
Tucked inside the newest Economist/YouGov ballot is an intriguing experiment that requested Individuals to determine whether or not a sequence of coverage statements had been liberal or conservative.
And it seems, slice of the citizens can’t reliably inform the 2 aside. About 1 in 10 Individuals routinely mislabels historically liberal statements as conservative. For instance, 11% say that “Military spending should be increased” is a liberal assertion, regardless of the Republican Social gathering historically main that cost.
However the confusion isn’t confined to 1 aspect of the aisle. Fourteen % of Democrats and 11% of Republicans determine the “military spending” assertion as liberal. Typically, Individuals in each events misattribute statements at related charges.
What’s extra revealing is what the mislabels say about individuals’s ideological instincts. In some instances, conservatives acknowledge a view as “liberal” however nonetheless assist it, suggesting their self-identification doesn’t all the time map onto their precise coverage preferences.
Take the road “Taxes should be raised on the wealthy.” Two-thirds of Individuals (66%) appropriately classify it as liberal, whereas 10% name it conservative. But the concept itself is broadly fashionable. The Pew Analysis Middle reported in March that 58% of Individuals wish to elevate taxes on households making $400,000 or extra yearly—and that features 43% of Republicans. That disconnect hints at a deeper rigidity between ideological branding and coverage beliefs.
The identical sample exhibits up on environmental protections. “The environment should be protected against pollution” is taken into account a liberal view by 56% of Individuals within the Economist/YouGov ballot, whereas 13% contemplate it a conservative assertion. However earlier this yr, Gallup discovered Individuals siding with defending the surroundings over prioritizing financial development, 54% to 38%—one other occasion wherein a bit of conservatives might assist a coverage they label as belonging to the opposite aspect.
One end result stands out for a way neatly it clashes with in the present day’s political rhetoric. “Spending should be cut on Social Security” is tagged as a conservative view by 49%, whereas 14% contemplate it liberal. But Gallup exhibits most Individuals don’t need Social Safety cuts—and Trump has gone out of his method to promise he received’t contact this system, if solely to keep away from angering older voters.
However Trump could also be an anomaly. Previous Republican presidents spent years attempting to trim or privatize Social Safety, and high-profile conservatives present little respect for this system, which probably retains the affiliation alive in voters’ minds.
Andrew Mangan contributed analysis.
