Let’s face it: as all the things descends into chaos, we want one thing to cling to. The 2 strongest males on the planet are preventing over which certainly one of them will get to be answerable for hoovering up essentially the most cash and energy, and that doesn’t really feel nice.
Then again, the 2 strongest males on the planet are each vicious toddlers who fully lack impulse management. We’d as properly watch them battle and hold observe of simply how a lot this break up goes to value them.
Elon Musk’s halcyon days had been quick however worthwhile, just a few transient months for him to vacuum up as many treats as attainable—no-bid contracts, escaping authorities investigations, and putting in his loyalists all through the federal government.
Musk’s greatest downside, after all, is that Donald Trump is president. Trump has spent the primary months of his administration weaponizing federal companies. That’s one thing Musk was completely on board with whereas he was … no matter his official position was on the unofficial so-called Division of Authorities Effectivity.
Certainly, Musk’s DOGE boys had been instrumental in executing Trump’s mass firings, clearing the way in which for Trump to put in loyalists who will likely be completely satisfied to focus on Musk.. However what the federal government arbitrarily and illegally giveth, the federal government can arbitrarily and illegally take away.
Trump reminded Musk of this on Fact Social, in certainly one of their early salvos of their social media battle Thursday, saying that he might save billions and billions by terminating Musk’s authorities contracts. He’s not improper, though the cash he’s showered on Musk is a drop within the bucket in comparison with the catastrophic quantity Trump goes so as to add to the deficit.
Trump can—and sure will—hurt Musk in 3 ways. He can yank Musk’s present authorities contracts, he can restart all company investigations into Musk’s companies, and he can ice Musk out of offers that had been within the works. All instructed, Musk may very well be out billions, and that’s not even counting how this battle is shredding Tesla’s inventory value.
SpaceX is perhaps out $22 billion
SpaceX, Musk’s non-public area firm with a nasty behavior of getting rockets explode and rain particles everywhere in the planet, had been awarded $6 billion to launch army satellites into orbit. The deal would have given SpaceX the vast majority of all these army contracts till 2036.
If Trump pulls this contract, that’s an actual blow to SpaceX in that the marketplace for non-public area corporations, whereas very profitable, could be very small, so Musk isn’t going to have the ability to simply make up that $6 billion elsewhere.
NASA had additionally awarded SpaceX a special launch contract, this one for $100 million for telescope launch companies. Whereas $100 million is nothing to the richest man on the planet, it’s enjoyable to consider him shedding it nonetheless.
These are simply the newest treats SpaceX obtained, nonetheless. Reuters estimates that Trump might nuke about $22 billion in authorities contracts with the corporate.
Tesla might lose extra than simply its inventory worth
It’s harder to calculate how a lot Trump’s match of pique goes to value Tesla, but it surely positively goes to run at the least 10 figures.
Even earlier than this breakup, Tesla had already suffered a loss when the federal government determined to not give it a $400 million contract to offer armored autos for the army.
It’s not clear what number of contracts Tesla has with the federal government. The Related Press reported that Tesla has acquired $41.9 million in authorities contracts through the years. Tesla additionally makes billions annually promoting regulatory credit, a ridiculous association the place governments give Tesla “credits”—aka cash—for making electrical vehicles. Tesla then has an extra of these credit that it might probably promote to different carmakers in order that they will all faux this in some way reduces air pollution. Tesla made near $3 billion in 2024 alone by doing this.
Tesla can even lose the unimaginable showmanship and gross sales abilities of each Trump and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
Elon, please benefit from the full consideration of the executive state
Simply as Trump wanted to win the presidency so as to not go to jail, Musk wanted Trump to win the presidency so as to not need to pay the federal government hundreds of thousands in fines.
When Trump took workplace in 2025, Musk’s corporations had been underneath investigation by at the least 11 federal companies. Spectacular! Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) estimated that getting out from underneath these might permit Musk to duck at the least $2.37 billion. Most of that’s about Tesla, which confronted $1.8 billion in penalties and a prison investigation over Tesla’s autopilot options.
Lawyer Normal Pam Bondi can be completely satisfied to have the Division of Justice resume scrutiny of Musk.
Whereas Musk was in Trump’s good graces, he might depend on authorities companies to make these investigations go away, however now that he’s not, it’s possible Lawyer Normal Pam Bondi can be completely satisfied to have the Division of Justice resume scrutiny of Musk.
Trump has largely defanged the Securities and Alternate Fee, however that doesn’t imply he can’t get the SEC to do not forget that Musk did not file a well timed report of his Twitter inventory purchases whereas he was on the point of purchase the corporate. The SEC may additionally recollect it was investigating Musk’s creepy brain-chip firm, Neuralink, after Musk lied in regards to the horrific deaths ensuing from the corporate’s experiments on monkeys.
It’s not simply that there are present investigations—Trump additionally has the ability to analyze Musk and his corporations for something he needs. That government order goes to be unimaginable.
Wither the Golden Dome?
The most important potential hit to Musk’s backside line is shedding out on the large pile of cash that Trump goes to gentle on hearth to construct the Golden Dome, a missile protect that the majority positively is not going to work. SpaceX had partnered with Peter Thiel’s Palantir and Palmer Luckey’s Anduril, the worst attainable blunt rotation, to construct this boondoggle. Estimates of the overall value vary anyplace from $119 billion to $6.4 trillion.
The Home had tucked near $25 billion for the dome into the 2025 finances. Higher but, earlier than Musk’s fall from grace, the undertaking appeared prefer it was set to pull on for years, attaining solely an illustration section by 2028. The query right here is whether or not Thiel and Luckey will go away Musk bleeding on the battlefield and push ahead to get that paper, or go away with him.
Whereas Trump has a number of methods to assault Musk, Musk actually has just one device in his toolbox: cash. Nevertheless, Musk has a staggering amount of cash, and he’s simply advantageous spending that cash on issues that may harm Trump. The person purchased the presidency for the comparatively low value of $250 million or so, and he can simply spend 10 occasions that if he decides to again one other horse.
God, we’re going to have to consider Ron DeSantis once more
Time to be taught which Home and Senate Republicans are on the market
Even earlier than this messy public spat, Home Republicans had been working to appease Musk in an effort to be sure he stored the money spigot absolutely open and to make sure he doesn’t use his prodigious fortune in opposition to them.
Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, is unquestionably down with Musk, saying, “I love what Elon’s doing, and I hope he keeps doing it.” Effectively, after all Gonzales thinks that, as Musk gave him $800,000 final yr.
Senators Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, and Thom Tillis had aligned themselves with Musk’s criticisms of Trump’s Huge Lovely Catastrophe, but it surely’s not clear but in the event that they’re open to killing the invoice for the fitting value.
What if Musk goes full Third Method?
Even though the American political system is under no circumstances well-suited for a 3rd social gathering to succeed on a big scale, Musk is already musing about beginning a brand new political social gathering. In fact, he did it within the stupidest approach attainable: a ballot on X.
There’s all the time been a cult of persona round Musk, however he’s misplaced fairly a little bit of luster recently. Tesla is a punchline, the place it was as soon as seen as an unstoppable juggernaut led by a genius. Moreover, Musk made himself the face of brutal authorities cuts. It seems that firing lots of of 1000’s of individuals whereas destroying the federal government doesn’t make you notably well-liked at events. That doesn’t imply that Musk can’t throw some huge cash at this dumb concept simply to make Trump depressing.
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