Former Trump administration economist Stephen Moore analyzes what it means for the macroeconomy if job progress was considerably overestimated.
Economists largely agree that the labor market is “cooling,” however one recruiting trade veteran says that may be a vital understatement.
Brian Howard is the founder and president of the Howard Group, a boutique search agency positioned in Overland Park, Kansas, that has been in enterprise for greater than 30 years, which firms rent to recruit candidates in an array of white-collar positions.
He stated the job market is in “bad shape.”
Longtime govt recruiter Brian Howard says the job market is flashing troubling indicators in his trade. (Joe Raedle/Getty Pictures / Getty Pictures)
Howard informed FOX Enterprise in an interview that he seen indicators of weakening about two years in the past that grew to become evident roughly 18 months in the past, and he stated the market has been sluggish to poor for the final 10 to 12 months.
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Hiring for tech administration and gross sales has nearly dried up, he stated, and whereas that sector tends to be boom-and-bust, recruiting for insurance coverage – extra of an “ebb and flow” trade – is now in a “sad state of affairs,” too.
Howard has seen a development of extra white-collar staff accepting impartial contractor or 1099 positions out of necessity and firms opting to fill momentary quite than everlasting positions.
He stated the recruiting trade in 2024 is beginning to really feel prefer it was in 2009 after the monetary disaster, when there was anecdotal proof that someplace round half of out of doors recruiting corporations went out of enterprise.
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One other telltale signal of the weakening job marketplace for Howard is that his agency is receiving an inflow of calls from job seekers and a noticeable downturn in requests from his shoppers – sometimes firms with 100 to 200 workers – trying to fill positions.
He stated firms are telling him that they’re holding off on hiring as a consequence of uncertainty in regards to the economic system and what is going to occur within the presidential election.
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“We’re experiencing a job market recession,” Howard stated. “Now, recessions still have economic activity. This is subdued. That’s what we’ve seen. We’ve still got activity, but it’s way down.”
Labor professional Jason Greer, president of Greer Consulting, stated he doesn’t disagree with this concept of a job market recession.
“There are a number of factors weighing against job seekers and even those who are currently employed but are on the lookout for new opportunities,” Greer, often known as “the employee whisperer,” informed FOX Enterprise.
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Greer stated that regardless that unemployment ranges between 4.1% and 4.3%, the hires price has fallen to its lowest stage since 2014, which he stated is mainly the equal of an employment price close to 7%.
He added, “Employers remain weary of overstaffing in light of a potential recession, despite the fact that the economy is still relatively strong.”
