It’s one of many largest tragedies of the 2025 presidential election: Donald Trump did exceedingly nicely with Latino voters.
The very communities he mocked and demonized as “criminal” turned out for him in massive numbers, pushed by financial despair and the identical disaffected power that has boosted the GOP amongst youthful voters.
Somebody holds an indication that reads, “Latinos voten por Trump,” or “Latinos vote for Trump” in 2020.
However Republican vanity, overreach, and hubris have as soon as once more opened the door for Democrats to rebound within the 2026 midterms.
The rightward Latino swing was dramatic in Texas, the place Trump gained Latino voters 55-45 in 2024 after former President Joe Biden carried them 58-41 in 2020. Flush with that success, Republicans made these positive aspects the muse of their mid-decade gerrymandering efforts—which have now been countered by a profitable California poll initiative.
In keeping with NPR, the brand new Texas map has a further 5 districts which are anticipated to be safely Republican, 4 of that are in Hispanic-majority areas.
Redistricting is all the time a big gamble. To create extra GOP seats, mapmakers need to siphon off Republican voters from current districts, making each rather less protected. That form of overreach is known as a “dummymander”—when a celebration stretches its base too skinny in pursuit of additional seats.
On paper, it appears to be like like a political masterstroke. However when the tide shifts, these artificially padded districts can collapse unexpectedly. That’s precisely what occurred in 2018, when the Texas GOP’s overextended map crumbled below the blue wave, flipping a number of seats to Democrats.
Associated | Why gerrymandering won’t be sufficient to save lots of the GOP
The 2026 panorama might simply ship a sequel, which appears to be like much more attainable after Tuesday’s election outcomes.
Democrats swept statewide races in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Georgia. In Virginia, the Home of Delegates flipped from a slender 51-48 GOP edge to a commanding 64-36 Democratic majority in a chamber that Republicans managed as lately as 2023.
Democratic voters are energized, and as Trump himself admitted after the vote, his absence from the poll depresses Republican turnout.
However simply because the Latino swing towards the appropriate was decisive in 2024, this reversal has been simply as placing. A number of polls present that Latino discontent with Trump had already been skyrocketing, and election returns bore this out.
A screenshot of Punchbowl Information reporter Ally Mutnick’s put up on X
Political analyst Ryan Matsumoto discovered an excellent starker instance in closely Latino Paterson, New Jersey. In a single precinct, Biden crushed Trump 88.8% to 11.2% in 2020. 4 years later, Trump narrowly edged out Kamala Harris 50.3% to 49.7%—a shocking swing of almost 40 factors.
However on this 12 months’s gubernatorial race, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill obliterated GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli 88% to 12%, virtually completely restoring the 2020 margin. It’s a jaw-dropping reversal that reveals simply how fleeting Latino flirtation with the GOP actually was.
And if any state ought to be watching carefully, it’s Texas, the place the GOP constructed its redistricting technique on the phantasm of everlasting Latino positive aspects. And if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis remains to be critical about calling for a brand new map, these election outcomes would possibly’ve put the kibosh on that too.
The Trump experiment is over, and the backlash is fierce.
