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The Wall Street Publication > Blog > Economy > Trump economist predicts ‘biggest refund cycle ever,’ huge checks forward
Economy

Trump economist predicts ‘biggest refund cycle ever,’ huge checks forward

Editorial Board Published December 19, 2025
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Trump economist predicts ‘biggest refund cycle ever,’ huge checks forward
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White Home Nationwide Financial Council Director Kevin Hassett joins ‘Varney & Co.’ to debate the November CPI report, tax refunds, an anticipated White Home announcement on housing reform and extra.

A number one contender to change into President Trump’s subsequent Federal Reserve chair mentioned the administration expects bigger tax refunds and better take-home pay subsequent 12 months, as many Individuals proceed to specific issues about affordability.

“We are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America, and people are going to get massive refund checks,” Nationwide Financial Council Director Kevin Hassett mentioned in an interview on FOX Enterprise’ “Varney & Co.” on Thursday.

“We’re expecting just that part of it alone to be worth a couple-thousand-dollar refund … the numbers are striking.”

LABOR SECRETARY DOWNPLAYS WARNINGS SIGNS, INSISTS JOB MARKET IS ‘STRENGTHENING’ DESPITE RISING UNEMPLOYMENT

Throughout his Wednesday night deal with, President Trump mentioned the administration expects “the largest tax refund season of all time” subsequent spring and claimed many households would save between $11,000 and $20,000 yearly.

The Trump administration is anticipating the most important tax refund cycle “in history” within the spring of 2026. (Getty Photographs)

“You saw in the jobs report that … wages for the typical worker were up 3.7%. So if you’re running 3.7% wage increases at 1.6% core inflation, then real wages are growing at a rate of about 2 [to] 2.5%. By our estimates right now, blue-collar workers have already seen an almost $2,000 raise this year after inflation, because wages are growing so much faster than prices,” Hassett defined.

‘The Large Cash Present’ panel previews President Donald Trump’s main financial prime-time deal with whereas Treasury officers unveil the ‘Trump Accounts’ rollout and level to enhancing jobs knowledge.

“I think that what happens in the end — and this is what happened in the first [Trump] term — is that people will see it in their wallets,” he continued. “We didn’t pass the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ until the middle of the summer. And so a lot of the tax changes, which affect last year, weren’t in any tax forms that people filled out at the beginning of the year.”

General, Hassett struck a bullish tone on the financial system and pointed to what he described as a “blockbuster” November inflation report, with figures coming in cooler than economists anticipated.

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‘The Big Money Show’ panel discusses President Donald Trump’s sharp financial message, cooling inflation, rising actual wages and why Individuals nonetheless aren’t feeling aid regardless of enhancing knowledge.

“What’s happened is, as we predicted throughout this term, that if you really put the pedal to the metal on aggregate supply, then that’s gonna put downward pressure on prices,” he mentioned.

“And don’t forget, that’s where we were last time in President Trump’s first term. We were growing in the 3% range, and we had inflation in the 1% range. And it looks like that’s where we are again.”

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