The Trump issue
He could not have been on the poll, however President Trump was on the minds of voters within the 2025 elections.
He was an element for a lot of voters in every of the locations the place exit polls have been performed: Virginia, New Jersey, New York Metropolis and California. And extra stated their vote in these races was to oppose him, than help him.
These are traditionally Democrat-leaning locations, and extra voters right here disapproved than accredited of his general job as president. In addition they discovered that his administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far.
New York Metropolis: Price of dwelling and bringing wanted change
New York Metropolis Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani received a decisive victory over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on a marketing campaign of affordability, and the price of dwelling was a very powerful difficulty to voters in New York Metropolis. Mamdani handily received the vast majority of voters who picked it. Extra particularly, he targeted on the price of housing, which seven in 10 voters in New York stated was a significant drawback the place they stay, and he received amongst renters, who made up greater than half of the citizens.
Voters who made up their minds within the final month of the marketing campaign voted overwhelmingly for Cuomo, however it wasn’t sufficient to make up for almost all of voters who selected Mamdani earlier than October.
Cuomo led Mamdani amongst Jewish voters — most of whom stated a candidate’s place on Israel was essential of their vote.
Mamdani’s coalition was led by huge help amongst voters underneath 30 and really liberal voters, however his help prolonged to all voters underneath 45 and to those that thought of themselves solely considerably liberal, whereas older voters, in addition to moderates and conservatives, voted for Cuomo.
The Republican candidate within the New York Metropolis mayoral race, Curtis Sliwa, got here in a distant third and didn’t even win self-identified Republicans (they voted for Cuomo). Had he dropped out of the race, it won’t have made a distinction. Although most of Sliwa’s supporters stated they might have voted for Cuomo, exit polls point out that in a hypothetical two-way race, Mamdani nonetheless would have been victorious.
Mamdani additionally ran on change, and that was picked as a very powerful high quality in how voters made their determination. A altering citizens was additionally a trademark of Mamdani’s win — his strongest help was not simply younger voters, but in addition those that have been voting in a mayoral race for the primary time and those that had moved to New York throughout the previous 10 years.
New Jersey and Virginia: The economic system, girls voters
Financial points additionally loomed giant within the Democratic wins within the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. In New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli received voters who have been most involved about taxes and who stated electrical energy was a significant drawback for them, however voters who stated a very powerful difficulty was the economic system general voted for Sherrill. In Virginia, these “economy” voters voted for Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears by greater than 20 factors.
Girls voted in large numbers for the ladies Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey. Sherrill and Spanberger’s margins with girls have been far bigger than Kamala Harris’ have been nationally in 2024.
Independents have been key, too. They swung towards Spanberger in Virginia, after Glenn Youngkin received them in 2021. Independents additionally backed Sherrill in New Jersey.
California Prop 50: Getting again at Republicans’ plans
“Yes” voters didn’t essentially assume this poll initiative was one of the best ways to attract congressional district line — however they overwhelmingly stated it was to counter the adjustments made by Republicans in different states.
Polls could have up to date since this put up was printed.
