Mike Johnson has a few month left to unravel his speakership math downside.
He could have earned unanimous GOP help to steer the Home a 12 months in the past, after the divisive and chaotic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, however he can’t depend on these numbers once more. Fierce critics turned in opposition to Johnson inside weeks of backing his bid for the gavel, taking subject with the GOP chief’s dealmaking with Democrats to stop authorities shutdowns.
If Home Republicans hold the bulk, Johnson will face private and non-private criticism from a number of factions of the convention. The simplest approach to defang his detractors can be rising his Home majority considerably. But when he doesn’t handle to try this on Election Day, he’ll need to work to appease these pockets of opposition. If the GOP retains the Home majority by solely a slim margin, he can solely afford to lose a handful of Republicans in a Jan. 3 speakership vote on the Home ground.
His most outspoken and well-known critics are the almost dozen GOP lawmakers who voted to advance an ouster effort in opposition to him earlier this 12 months, however they’re not alone. Whereas nearly all of Republicans help Johnson, saying he has the precise temperament for the troublesome job, others are publicly venting about his spending methods and privately questioning his future — and even floating alternate options.
Proper now, Johnson says he’s not sweating it, including he’s completed his finest to keep up good relationships all through his convention.
“There’s a passage of scripture that I think of all time that says: ‘So much as it is possible, be at peace with all men.’ So, that’s my responsibility. It’s my role. I can’t control what other people do or say,” Johnson instructed POLITICO.
Simply shy of his first anniversary as speaker, right here’s a breakdown of the factions to look at as Johnson tries to carry onto energy:
Anti-Johnson 11
Eleven conservatives superior an ouster effort in opposition to Johnson in Could that failed after Democrats sided with most Republicans to dam it. Unsurprisingly, this group is Johnson’s largest potential headache.
Republicans view their three colleagues who spearheaded that effort — Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) — because the most probably to vote in opposition to Johnson in a future speakership vote, no matter what he does within the coming months.
Whereas eight extra Republicans opted to vote to advance the ouster decision, it’s not sure that each one of them would’ve truly authorised eradicating Johnson. Trump had made public statements supporting the speaker on the time, and Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) instructed POLITICO beforehand that Trump’s opinion was important and guarded the speaker.
Whereas Crane was one of many 11, he instructed POLITICO in mid-April that Trump’s backing of Johnson prompted the Arizona Republican to again off from additional pursuing an ejection effort. He added that he’ll be being attentive to the previous president’s place within the coming months.
One other Republican who voted to advance the trouble, granted anonymity to talk candidly, mentioned their choice was partially motivated by not eager to facet with Democrats who got here to Johnson’s support — not essentially their points with the speaker himself.
Two extra, Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), have vented about Johnson’s latest choices on spending payments however have declined to say how they’d vote for speaker. Biggs and Crane additionally backed McCarthy’s ouster final 12 months.
Different members in that group of 11 have largely declined to point how they’d vote on a future Johnson speakership bid.
Disgruntled Republicans
Exterior of these 11, there’s a broader group of conservative members who’re annoyed with Johnson however much less vocal.
That features Republicans who opposed the trouble besides Johnson in Could, arguing that doing so risked an excessive amount of chaos in an election 12 months and will even lead to a Democratic speaker. However greater than a dozen have indicated they may be prepared for brand spanking new management come January.
Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) is one member of that group. She beforehand instructed POLITICO in late April that whereas she didn’t help the so-called movement to vacate in opposition to Johnson, she wouldn’t again him for a management position once more after he green-lighted a vote to ship extra support to Ukraine.
“I can tell you this: I will never support Speaker Mike Johnson as speaker again. That’s for certain,” Boebert mentioned on the time.
Different Republicans say they like Johnson, however they’re annoyed that he hasn’t performed hardball in opposition to Democrats like they hoped he would once they elected him in October.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) declined to say if he would vote for Johnson, telling POLITICO that it depends upon how the remainder of the 12 months performs out — a sentiment broadly shared amongst this group. He added that whereas Johnson “has a general likeability because he’s honest,” he argued Republicans want the “hardball tactics that a Nancy Pelosi has” of their fiscal battles.
Rivals’ allies
There’s one other, difficult-to-navigate wrinkle: Different members are quietly contemplating making their very own bid for high spots. Even when they defer to Johnson, the speaker nonetheless has to fret about their allies.
A significant participant right here is Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). The present Judiciary Committee chair has dozens of staunch conservatives who privately say they wish to see him within the high spot. And whereas Jordan has said he wouldn’t problem Johnson for speaker, some members are already floating a Jordan management trial balloon. That would imply they oppose Johnson in favor of Jordan.
Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), who was elected Freedom Caucus chair final month, name-checked Jordan as somebody he needs to see in management. Harris opposed booting Johnson earlier this 12 months.
“I like Jim Jordan. I feel he ought to have a shot at being speaker. I feel he could have a shot at being speaker after the election,” Harris mentioned again in March.
He’s not the one one pointing on the Ohio Republican, who tried to turn into speaker final fall however was blocked by a coalition of centrists and allies of Majority Chief Steve Scalise (R-La.).
In the course of the September funding combat, Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) predicted to reporters that Johnson will want Democratic assist to maintain the gavel in January and floated Jordan as somebody who he thought would have been a “great” speaker. And Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) is dodging questions in regards to the subsequent management combat after he superior the Johnson ouster effort earlier this 12 months.
First-term members
The incoming class of Home Republicans might be one other wild card within the speakership election. And plenty of of them haven’t but indicated the place they stand.
Trump’s affect might sway some within the group. One incoming member, granted anonymity to talk frankly, mentioned that they’d take route from the previous president. Others are ready to see the end result of the November election earlier than going public on their choices.
POLITICO reached out to about two dozen GOP candidates anticipated to serve within the Home subsequent time period, after they gained their major races in protected pink seats. About half of these anticipated incoming members didn’t reply to questions on the place they stand on the management race. A handful of them indicated they plan to again Johnson.
Lots of the new lawmakers will exchange Republicans who had been already in Johnson’s camp, although there are a number of within the incoming class who will exchange some hardliners — like John McGuire, who defeated Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) in a nasty major. Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who superior the trouble in opposition to Johnson, is retiring, as is perennial management thorn Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.).
And at the very least one candidate who is anticipated to hitch the ultra-conservative Home Freedom Caucus indicated that they’d again Johnson for speaker, in the event that they hold the bulk: Mark Harris of North Carolina, who’s working within the seat presently held by retiring Rep. Dan Bishop.
“I think Mike’s doing a phenomenal job. I thought he is in an incredibly difficult place with the vote margins that he’s working with. And … he has been working his tail off all over the country, raising money, trying to help the candidates, trying to increase the majority,” Harris mentioned in an interview final month. “And I think that if he increases the majority, I think there’s no question that he’s going to have that next time as speaker.”
One other conservative candidate, Abe Hamadeh of Arizona, praised Johnson, however didn’t say immediately how he’d solid his vote.
It’s value noting that first-term members change their minds on management votes extra readily than veteran lawmakers. About one-quarter of the twenty Republicans who voted to dam McCarthy from the speakership final January had been new members. They later agreed to again McCarthy after he made varied concessions.
Silent Republicans
There are a selection of Republicans who privately kvetch that they may oppose Johnson in January, however publicly they offer themselves room to reverse their place — seeking to keep away from blowback or doubtlessly crossing Trump.
“I feel completely justified going back home and saying: ‘Why would I sign up for this again?’ No chance,” mentioned one Home Republican, who was granted anonymity to talk frankly, referring to how Johnson has led the convention.
It’s more durable to quantify what number of members belong to this group, or what number of are critical about opposing Johnson. Their choices might extremely depend upon each Trump and the November election outcomes, and the looming December funding combat might additionally play a task.
Additionally they could wish to keep away from the lobbying that might ensue in the event that they publicly opposed Johnson now. A handful have privately floated that they hope Johnson will bow out if it turns into clear he can’t win the gavel once more. However different annoyed members concede there isn’t a viable candidate to interchange him in the event that they win the bulk in November.
Johnson could have a greater thought how giant his opposition is — although not precisely who’s in it — when the convention holds a secret-ballot, simple-majority vote to call their speaker nominee in November. The more durable, full Home vote follows in January.
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