In final week’s Six Pack, I informed you ways sloppy early season play had led to unders cashing at a ridiculous charge (57.6%) by way of the primary week of the season, ending a median of 5.07 factors under the closing complete. I additionally informed you to not rely on that being the case in Week 2.
Properly, if we counted that prediction with my picks, I’d have gone 5-2 final week as a substitute of 4-2, as a result of the over bounced again in an enormous method. The over went 76-57 final week, cashing at a virtually an identical charge (57.1%) because the unders had prior. Nonetheless, the common recreation completed just one.88 factors above the listed complete. Why? As a result of the books adjusted.
The common complete for video games in Week 0 and Week 1 was 53.43. In Week 2, it dropped to 52.45. Not sufficient to make up your complete hole, however sufficient to function one other reminder that simply because one thing labored one week doesn’t imply it’ll work the subsequent. The books are all the time adjusting primarily based on what occurred, and we will’t strategy issues any in a different way.
All you are able to do is take the knowledge accessible to you, sift by way of the noise, and see if you’ll find one thing dependable to rely on. Then cross your fingers and hope you get fortunate, and proceed to take action.
Faculty Soccer QB Energy Rankings: Oklahoma’s John Mateer soars to high as Beau Pribula overtakes Drew Allar
David Cobb
Video games of the Week
No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee: Are Tennessee followers spiking the ball too early? I definitely perceive the impulse to take action primarily based on what they’ve seen by way of two video games. Joey Aguilar has performed properly for the Vols, whereas Nico Iamaleava has struggled at UCLA. Nonetheless, not all the things is all the time because it appears. I’ve seen speak on social media about how Aguilar will get the ball out in 2.57 seconds in comparison with Nico needing 2.99 final 12 months, and the way this exhibits Aguilar is a a lot better processor of knowledge. What that ignores is Iamaleava averaged over 10 air yards per try final season, whereas Aguilar is at 8.8. The Vols offense isn’t taking the identical deep photographs as final season when there was a bit extra belief in each the offensive line and the QB’s arm energy.
We additionally mustn’t ignore that the Vols have performed Syracuse and Jap Tennessee State. Syracuse narrowly prevented a loss at residence to UConn final week, of us. It would stink stink.
None of this needs to be taken as me saying Aguilar isn’t good and the early-season outcomes have been a mirage. What it needs to be taken as is me saying “I don’t know yet.” We will definitely know much more after the weekend, as a result of the Georgia group coming to Neyland Stadium this week has a protection that’s vastly superior to any Tennessee has seen to date. Will the Joey Aguilar with a profession Whoopsy Daisy Fee — (Interceptions+Fumbles/Snaps) — of two.77% at Appalachian State return, or will we see the identical man who has a WDR of 0.81% to date in Knoxville?
Additional complicating issues for the Vols is their damage report. Tennessee shall be with out its beginning cornerbacks and might be lacking starters on the inside of its line of defense. Gunner Stockton and the Georgia offense haven’t finished something to calm the fears of the fan base by way of two video games, however I by no means understand how significantly to take Georgia’s video games in opposition to cupcakes. My intestine tells me the Georgia offense will lean on its floor recreation and hope to use matchups in opposition to a banged-up secondary when it may possibly, after which rely on its protection to stifle Tennessee. I believe the Dawgs can do it. Even on the street. The Choose: Georgia -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame: Talking of groups I don’t really feel like I do know rather a lot about, we’ve obtained an enormous recreation in South Bend Saturday night time. Notre Dame has not performed since its Week 1 loss to Miami. What I noticed in that recreation wasn’t promising. Notre Dame’s offensive line was overwhelmed by Miami’s move rush, which put freshman CJ Carr into powerful spots. Generally he wriggled out of them and made magic occur. Most occasions, he didn’t. Defensively, the Irish have been banged up within the secondary, and Miami took benefit of it a number of occasions. The line of defense obtained little or no stress on Carson Beck. We will write that off as Miami having an ideal offensive line and an ideal line of defense, however the issue is that Texas A&M might need an ideal offensive line, too.
If the Irish move rush is as ineffective this week (it ranks 133rd nationally with a stress charge of 18.8%), how will the secondary maintain up in opposition to an Aggies group that has significantly upgraded the receiver place with Mario Craver and KC Concepcion? I’ve questions on how properly the Aggies’ offense will carry out as a result of it’s performed two terrible defenses to start out, and even when I’ve considerations concerning the Irish general, these considerations are centered extra on Notre Dame’s hopes of returning to the Faculty Soccer Playoff, not whether or not they’re higher than UTSA or Utah State.
I additionally surprise if we’ll see A&M lean extra into its dashing assault on this matchup than it has to date this season. So I’ve questions on A&M’s offense that make me hesitant to take the Aggies now that the unfold has crept under 7 factors. What I’m most assured in is that, win or lose, I don’t anticipate the Irish offense to attain a whole lot of factors right here. Even at residence, I don’t anticipate them to place the onus of accountability on Carr’s shoulders, and I do suppose they’ll attempt to get Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Worth occurring the bottom. The Choose: Notre Dame Workforce Complete Below 27.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Lock of the Week
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern: We’re going again to the properly as a result of this line feels simply as mistaken as final week’s Oregon line in opposition to Oklahoma State did. I do know this recreation is on the street, nevertheless it’s not like Northwestern has some unimaginable homefield benefit at their short-term stadium alongside Lake Michigan. Although Northwestern coach David Braun is sensible sufficient to not complain about how a lot cash Oregon has to present the Geese motivational gas, I don’t suppose Braun has the horses to compete with the Geese, both.
Oregon appears to be like simply as harmful and explosive this 12 months because it did the previous couple of years. Whether or not or not that degree holds up in opposition to the higher groups on the schedule stays to be seen, however I don’t take into account Northwestern to be a lot better than the Oklahoma State group the Geese simply beat by 66 factors. Defensively, the Wildcats have appeared alright, however they’ve performed Tulane and Western Illinois, and Western Illinois is a nasty FCS group. They misplaced to Tulane. In the meantime, the offense has not impressed me in any respect. Positive, it appeared higher in opposition to Western Illinois, however it could’ve been arduous to look worse than it did in opposition to Tulane. Like final week’s recreation, I received’t be stunned if Oregon is masking by halftime. The Choose: Oregon -27.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Below of the Week
Florida at No. 3 LSU: LSU is ranked within the high 3 after a 2-0 begin, thanks primarily to its win over Clemson to start out the season. That each one makes loads of sense, significantly in case you haven’t paid shut consideration. When you have appeared deeper, you’ll know that the Clemson group LSU beat wanted to return again from a 16-0 deficit in opposition to Troy final week. You additionally know that LSU solely managed to place up 23 factors in opposition to Louisiana Tech final week. Now, a few of that was on account of a vanilla recreation plan, as LSU knew it had a lot larger fish to fry this week. The priority is that a whole lot of the problems we noticed with LSU’s offensive line in opposition to Clemson have been nonetheless points in opposition to Louisiana Tech, and, girls and gents, Louisiana Tech’s defensive entrance isn’t in the identical stratosphere as Clemson’s.
Neither is it on a fair taking part in area with Florida’s. Like, we will have all of the enjoyable we would like at Billy Napier and Florida’s expense for final week’s loss to South Florida, however that loss certain as hell wasn’t on the protection. The very fact of the matter is, the 2 defenses on this recreation have been far and away the perfect elements for each groups. LSU has utterly flipped the script on that aspect of the ball, as they give the impression of being terrific. Their portal additions look to be hits throughout the board. Garrett Nussmeier has performed properly in less-than-ideal conditions, and that’s why I believe LSU ought to win most of the time, significantly at residence. However the one factor I’m most sure about is that each these offenses are more likely to battle to discover a stable footing on Saturday. The Choose: Below 48.5 (-110) at Fanduel
Pumpkin of the Week
No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami: South Florida is the story of the early season. The Bulls are the one group within the nation with two wins over ranked opponents, however this Cinderella story could be very more likely to flip again right into a pumpkin this weekend. You may’t argue with the outcomes, however the course of has not been one thing I take into account sustainable. The Bulls rank seventy fifth nationally in factors per drive at 2.17, 116th in offensive success charge at 36.7%, and 94th in EPA per play at -0.01. In the meantime, the common size of their touchdowns this season has been an astounding 31.4 yards per rating.
They’ve been the very definition of boom-or-bust, and there may be far an excessive amount of bust between the booms. Notably on this matchup, the place I firmly consider Miami’s line of defense can overwhelm the Bulls’ offensive line, and that Miami’s offensive line may have its method with the Bulls’ entrance seven. It’s been an ideal begin, and South Florida is firmly within the driver’s seat with regards to the G6 auto bid in the event that they win the American. However they don’t should win this recreation to win the American, and I don’t anticipate they’ll come near doing so. The Choose: Miami -17.5 (-105) at FanDuel
Upset of the Week
Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss: I’m certain Ole Miss backers in every single place recognize Lane Kiffin’s postgame apology for permitting Kentucky to get a backdoor cowl final week. What nervous me concerning the efficiency was how Kentucky’s offense carried out on the identical (dangerous) degree in opposition to the Rebels because it did Toledo the week prior. That’s not a very good signal. I’m additionally involved about Austin Simmons‘ turnover-prone tendencies through two games, and the fact he had to be helped off the field at one point late in the game. Kiffin says he could’ve gone again in had they taped his ankle if he wanted to. That’s good, however meaning Simmons might not be at full well being this week.
In the meantime, Arkansas’ offense has appeared phenomenal in two video games in opposition to dangerous opponents. Taylen Inexperienced is balling, and whereas I don’t anticipate the Razorbacks to look pretty much as good in opposition to Ole Miss, I do suppose they’ll nonetheless look adequate. The whole on this recreation is at 60.5, and I can see why, as a result of this might show to be a tennis match. In a recreation more likely to go back-and-forth, I see worth within the group with what I really feel is the higher quarterback getting a beneficiant value. The Choose: Arkansas (+225) at DraftKings
Video games of the Week
1-1
3-1
+0.90
Lock of the Week
1-0
1-1
-0.14
Upset of the Week
1-0
1-1
+0.93
Total
4-2
7-5
+2.52
SportsLine’s confirmed laptop mannequin has simulated each Week 3 school soccer recreation 10,000 occasions. Go to SportsLine now to see all of the picks, all from the mannequin that’s 31-19 for the reason that starting of final season on top-rated money-line and over/below picks.
