Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is hoping to outrun former President Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which has been trending blue and is about to play a key position within the contentious presidential race.
Bacon, who has represented the recently-redrawn district encompassing Omaha for almost a decade in Congress, is operating towards state Sen. Tony Vargas, a Democrat, trying to safe his fifth time period on Capitol Hill serving the so-called “blue dot” that has been a goal for nationwide Democrats trying to peel off a pivotal Electoral School vote for Vice President Harris.
Two years in the past, Vargas, vying to grow to be the primary Latino to signify Nebraska in Congress, misplaced to Bacon by lower than three factors. This 12 months, the 2 Nebraskans are squaring off once more throughout a presidential cycle the place a report quantity of nationwide spending, an elevated proportion of Latino voters within the district and renewed power over the problem of abortion might assist him knock out the Republican incumbent, who must outperform Trump within the swing district.
“I think I’ve been caught in this vortex of huge amounts of Democrat spending coming in the district, so I think that’s been my biggest handicap,” Bacon mentioned in a cellphone interview with The Hill. “I feel like though a month ago, my nose was barely over the water, but I think we have surged five, seven points. I think the debates helped me out.”
Bacon’s district, which incorporates Saunders County, Douglas County and components of Sarpy County, has extra registered Republicans than Democrats, but in addition a major chunk,103,707, of nonpartisan voters. The Cook dinner Political Report shifted Nebraska’s solely aggressive Home race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat” on Friday.
Polls have proven Vargas sustaining a slight lead. A latest survey, sponsored by The Economist, had Vargas up by 4 factors, 50 % to 46 %.
To show the tables, Bacon, a retired Air Power brigadier basic, has showcased his bipartisan prowess on the marketing campaign path, reminding constitutes of his vote for the 2021 infrastructure invoice and navy background, in addition to his vote to certify the 2020 election and the truth that Trump campaigned towards him two years in the past.
“If I disagree with my party, I do,” Bacon mentioned. “If I agree with them, I do. I feel the same way about President Biden. If I can agree with him, I will, but if I think he’s doing something wrong, I’m going to call him out. So I work for the district, I don’t work for anybody else.”
Within the hunt for extra split-ticket voters, Bacon has touted endorsements of Democrats like Ann Ashford, who ran in Bacon’s district in 2020. Vargas, equally, did a press convention with some Republicans who shared why they’ll’t vote for Bacon once more.
Including to Bacon’s challenges is the truth that Trump is badly trailing Harris within the district, no less than in accordance with a latest New York Instances/Siena School ballot that discovered the GOP presidential nominee behind by 12 factors.
“If she [Harris] wins this district, it is not impossible at all for Bacon to win,” one GOP operative concerned within the race instructed The Hill. “He absolutely can still win this district if Kamala does, because this district doesn’t really like Trump. They are Republicans, but it’s the Trump factor that they don’t like.”
Bacon acknowledged that Trump might want to shut that hole with Harris within the district if the congressional incumbent goes to win reelection.
“We start talking over 12 points, that’s harder to reach for down-ballot Republicans,” Bacon mentioned. “So for me to win, [Trump’s] gotta be tighter than that. We think he’s down seven right now.”
The Home Republican has been right here earlier than. He launched his congressional profession by ousting a Democratic incumbent, Brad Ashford, in 2016, the identical 12 months Trump received the district.
Since then, he has survived aggressive reelection bids. He was censured by the Sarpy County Republican Get together in April, a month earlier than he simply defeated his major challenger, Republican Dan Frei. Some political observers consider he can survive the onslaught as soon as extra.
“Beyond his military service record and his record of bipartisan accomplishments, Don Bacon is exceedingly authentic and likable- and that may carry him through,” Jessica Flanagain, a accomplice at Axiom Methods and a Nebraska GOP strategist, instructed The Hill.
She acknowledged that the inflow of out of doors cash has made it tougher for the Nebraska Republican to “define the issues, which he has traditionally done very well.”
Each candidates have been aggressive on the fundraising circuit. They raised virtually $12.7 million mixed and have spent over $11.2 million, in accordance with the most recent Federal Election Fee (FEC) filings, though Vargas raised round $1.4 million greater than Bacon in the course of the third quarter.
Almost 40 teams have dropped money within the race, flooding the district with over $21 million in outdoors spending, in accordance to money-in-politics tracker OpenSecrets. Coupled with Harris’s involvement, it carved out an even bigger opening for Vargas.
He has campaigned on abortion, middle-class tax cuts and maintaining prescription drug costs down. The state senator, a former member of the Omaha Public Faculties board, has tried to attach Bacon to Trump, whom he endorsed 3 times, casting his opponent as being within the MAGA wing of the GOP and out of contact with the district’s constituents, an assertion that Bacon strongly denied.
Meg Mandy, Vargas’ marketing campaign supervisor, instructed The Hill that Bacon “hasn’t offered any solutions to the issues facing Nebraskans — housing and childcare affordability, cost of living, and the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs.”
“Tony has a strong record of working across the aisle to support $6 billion of tax relief and in Congress, Nebraskans can count on him to fight to deliver a middle-class tax cut, lower healthcare costs and protect reproductive rights,” Mandy added.
The Latino inhabitants within the state has elevated by over 40 % within the final ten years. The expansion may benefit Vargas, who’s presently the best elected Latino official within the state.
“Latino voters really have a shot at making an impact, both in terms of who represents them in Congress next year,” BOLD PAC’s Govt Director Victoria McGroar instructed The Hill, including in addition they play an important position in “granting that electoral vote in the presidential election.”
Bacon disagreed, saying that these voters are “small business-oriented, they’re faith-based oriented and really my opponent is at the opposite of that on these issues.”
BOLD PAC, the marketing campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC), invested $150,000 in Spanish broadcast adverts focusing on Latino voters within the district, in accordance with McGroar.
“I don’t think it’s going to affect this cycle as it will in 2026 and it’ll be up to whichever party puts the most amount of effort into listening to them and connecting with them, where their values are at,” mentioned Nebraska Republican Get together Chair Eric Underwood.
Abortion has additionally risen as a key issue within the contest, a problem the GOP has struggled with for the reason that overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2022. The shockwaves from that call might ripple via the contentious Home race.
Nebraskans have two competing abortion measures on the poll. Initiative 439 would grant a constitutional proper to abortion as much as fetal viability, whereas Initiative 434 would ban abortions within the second and third trimesters, besides when medical emergencies, incest or sexual assault happen.
Randy Adkins, a political science professor on the College of Nebraska-Omaha, mentioned each poll initiatives will “drive up turnout on both sides.”
Vargas and his allies have attacked Bacon over abortion, contending he has a extra hardline stance on the problem than what the remainder of his reasonable report suggests.
“Don Bacon co-sponsored a national abortion ban with no exceptions 3 times,” Mandy mentioned. “Abortion is on the ballot this year in Nebraska and voters know they can count on Tony to keep healthcare decisions between women and their doctors and work to protect reproductive rights.”
Bacon argued Vargas was mendacity about his stance and that he backs exceptions for the lifetime of the mom, rape and incest. Bacon helps Initiative 434.
GOP-aligned teams have backed up Bacon. Congressional Management Fund has spent over $4.6 million to this point, essentially the most out of any Tremendous PAC within the race, in accordance with FEC experiences, nevertheless it won’t be sufficient.
“The fact that it’s a presidential cycle definitely makes it one of the toughest [races],” the GOP operative mentioned. “I think the amount of money being spent against him definitely makes it tough. But at the same time, he’s done this before, he’s been through it before, so it’s always going to be a tough race. I don’t know if it’s the toughest, but it’s definitely up there.”
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