Oct 20, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
The 2024 WNBA season has been one for the books, and it’ll finish Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a winner-take-all at Barclays Middle between the No. 1 seed New York Liberty and the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx.
Residence groups are 5-2 all time in Recreation 5 of the WNBA Finals.
The Liberty might have clinched their first championship in franchise historical past Friday, however the Lynx held court docket. New York, the league’s solely remaining authentic franchise with out a title, has misplaced all 5 earlier occasions it has performed for the championship.
Minnesota can win a WNBA file fifth title with a win Sunday. Cheryl Reeve sports activities a 2-1 file in Finals Recreation 5s as head coach.
What ought to we count on in Recreation 5? ESPN breaks down the X components and predicts which crew shall be topped champion.
Is that this the perfect WNBA Finals in league historical past?
Michael Voepel: There may be normally recency bias with questions like this as a result of what we’ve seen for the previous week is so contemporary.
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That mentioned, there’s a case to be made for this collection. It’s gone the gap, and three of the 4 video games have been determined by three factors or fewer. And the opposite one — New York’s 80-66 victory in Recreation 2 — was a two-point recreation with lower than 4 minutes left. There’s usually no less than one dud recreation even in a extremely good championship collection, however that hasn’t occurred.
We’ve seen just a little of every part:
Recreation 1, Lynx win: An 18-point comeback, a four-point play to take the lead within the final 5 seconds by Courtney Williams, and time beyond regulation. Recreation 3, Liberty win: Sabrina Ionescu‘s 28-foot 3-pointer with one second left. Recreation 4, Lynx win: Bridget Carleton‘s two game-winning free throws with two seconds left. This recreation additionally was the tightest all through, with 14 lead modifications and 13 ties.
Sunday will mark Reeve’s sixth Finals Recreation 5 (together with her time with the Detroit Shock as an assistant coach), so she is nicely positioned to make comparisons. She mentioned the Minnesota-Los Angeles Sparks Finals in 2016 and 2017, which each went 5 video games, stand out as a result of a number of future Corridor of Famers had been taking part in for each groups.
Two video games within the 2016 Finals ended on last-second photographs, each received by the Sparks. The primary two video games of the 2017 Finals had been determined by one and two factors, the subsequent three by 11, 11 and 9 factors.
The 2024 WNBA Finals have been ____.
Charlie Creme: Coronary heart-stopping. All 4 video games have been shut late. For sheer viewing pleasure, few collection in basketball historical past have been higher.
Yr
Collection
Winner
2024
Liberty-Lynx
?
2019
Mystics-Solar
Mystics
2017
Lynx-Sparks
Lynx
2016
Sparks-Lynx
Sparks*
2015
Lynx-Fever
Lynx
2009
Mercury-Fever
Mercury
2007
Mercury-Shock
Mercury*
2006
Shock-Monarchs
Shock
Alexa Philippou: Gratifying. In a season that welcomed quite a lot of new followers and viewers as a result of sensational rookie class, it’s a deal with that these two groups — historic and particular in their very own methods — are placing on such a high-level collection. It’s the newest reminder of how good the gamers and the teaching and the basketball have been within the WNBA, lengthy earlier than its sudden rise in cultural relevance.
Voepel: Excruciating for Liberty followers. Some New York devoted go all the way in which again to 1997. They’ve stayed the course by way of many postseason disappointments. It felt like this was “their year,” particularly as soon as they defeated the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces within the semifinals. However the Lynx are making the Liberty work as arduous as potential. Some New York followers will watch Recreation 5 prefer it’s a horror film that might go terribly improper. Such is the value of longtime fandom.
The Liberty-Lynx WNBA Finals are headed to Recreation 5 for the eighth time (and first since 2019). The house crew is 5-2 in Recreation 5 of the Finals. Catalina Fragoso/NBAE through Getty Pictures
Who or what would be the X think about Recreation 5?
Philippou: The well being and effectiveness of Alanna Smith, who’s pushing by way of a again subject that (together with foul bother) stored her sidelined a great little bit of Recreation 3. She completed with 12 factors and seven boards in half-hour in Recreation 4, a great signal for the Lynx, who additionally bought stable minutes from Dorka Juhasz. Now coming off of a flight and fast turnaround following Friday’s recreation, whether or not Smith can proceed to battle in opposition to Jonquel Jones shall be an enormous issue for Minnesota.
And as apparent because it sounds, this recreation would possibly come all the way down to which crew makes fewer errors down the stretch and which steps up within the clutch. Late fouls, free throw effectivity and big-time 3-pointers have swung the end result of three of the 4 Finals video games. If Sunday comes all the way down to the ultimate minute or seconds, late-game execution will resolve which crew is topped champion.
Voepel: It seems like there’s extra stress on the Liberty, for apparent causes as they search their first championship. How nicely they defend from the tip can set the tone on this recreation. How nicely Breanna Stewart performs offensively is the opposite huge. As we noticed in Recreation 3, she will be able to completely take over. However as we noticed in Recreation 4, she will be able to additionally battle together with her capturing accuracy.
Can the Liberty win the title if Stewart and Ionescu shoot like they did Friday?
Voepel: In Recreation 4, you can inform Stewart and Napheesa Collier had been feeling the grind of battling one another for a week-plus. Collier was 4-of-10 from the sphere and Stewart 5-of-21. However with every part on the road Sunday, it’s possible we’ll see sturdy performances from each. Getting a great capturing recreation from Ionescu, then, may very well be an absolute key for New York.
Titles
Lynx
7
4
Liberty
6
0
Sparks
5
3
Mercury
5
3
Philippou: The Liberty had been inside attain of successful a championship with these two capturing poorly Friday, because of the contributions of Jones, Leonie Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. So possibly it’s not not possible to win in such circumstances — particularly if Jones goes off — nevertheless it makes the margin for error a lot slimmer.
Nonetheless, it’s not a coincidence that in New York’s two Finals losses, Ionecsu shot 30.8% and 33.3% (vs. 55.6% and 41.7% of their wins) and Stewart shot sub-30% (vs. 38.9% and 45%).
Stewart and Ionescu are New York’s leaders and must make photographs down the stretch in a very powerful recreation of their Liberty careers. However the Liberty additionally want to scrub up a few of their offensive course of; New York’s motion and decision-making on offense in stretches of this collection are extra the wrongdoer than lacking photographs.
Creme: No. Which may appear to be too absolute of a response given New York virtually did win Recreation 4 with its two largest stars combining to shoot 10-for-36. Stewart and Ionescu additionally shot poorly in Recreation 1, an time beyond regulation loss for the Liberty. And that’s simply it: In New York’s wins on this collection, Stewart has scored 21 and 30 factors. Ionescu made 10 of 21 photographs mixed in Video games 2 and three and had the game-winning 3-pointer in Recreation 3. Positive, Jones and Fiebich had been excellent in Recreation 4, however we now have seen that that isn’t sufficient. New York wants its stars, no less than one in all them, to be simply that to win the primary title in franchise historical past.
The Lynx already received one recreation this collection at Barclays. How do they pull off one other?
Philippou: They’ll must placed on one other defensive masterclass. Within the two video games Minnesota misplaced this collection, New York shot over 45% from the ground and 40% from 3. And as we beforehand mentioned, slowing down Ionescu and Stewart would go a great distance. If Stewart and Collier neutralize one another, can some mixture of Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Bridget Carleton hit huge photographs down the stretch?
Voepel: If the Lynx have the lead late, they may have the ability to pressure the Liberty into splintering like they did in Recreation 1. It simply felt just like the New York gamers didn’t actually pull collectively in that loss, as they had been all making an attempt to proper the ship solo after their 15-point lead slipped away within the final 5 minutes of regulation.
Which crew will win Sunday?
Creme: New York. But it surely’ll be one other tight one. Stewart will bounce again and can make an enormous play late. The Liberty earned home-court benefit by being the perfect crew within the league all season. That is what it’s for, and the Barclays Middle crowd that may virtually assuredly be greater than 18,000 will present simply sufficient of a lift for New York.
Philippou: New York. This collection has been filled with surprises, however I’m going to stay with my authentic prediction. Courtney Williams stored saying earlier than Recreation 3 the Lynx didn’t wish to return to Brooklyn due to how energizing the gang is for the Liberty. And after the Aces celebrated a championship on the Barclays Middle flooring final 12 months, the Liberty aren’t going to let a visiting crew do this once more.
Voepel: Minnesota. Reeve had the very best reply Friday to what would resolve Recreation 5: “It’s two great teams. Who knows?” That’s why this collection has been so good. Even with the Liberty having the perfect regular-season file and being the No. 1 seed, the Lynx had the higher of New York within the common season and within the Commissioner’s Cup ultimate. It actually has been evenly matched.
As Charlie and Alexa talked about, the gang at Barclays may very well be a sixth participant on this recreation; the power stage shall be superb. However having picked the Lynx initially of the collection, I’ll stick with that.
