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The Wall Street Publication > Blog > World > Ontario Liberals face an unsure future as new management race looms, consultants say
World

Ontario Liberals face an unsure future as new management race looms, consultants say

Editorial Board Published September 15, 2025
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Ontario Liberals face an unsure future as new management race looms, consultants say
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Bonnie Crombie is out as Ontario Liberal Chief after scoring a weak mandate in a management evaluation, as insiders and consultants say the occasion will now proceed a tough rebuild whereas as soon as once more starting the fractious course of of selecting a brand new occasion chief.

Crombie resigned after receiving 57 per cent help within the obligatory evaluation of delegates at a celebration gathering in Toronto. That got here months after the the Liberals completed a disappointing third in seat rely within the snap provincial election which noticed Premier Doug Ford cruise to a majority authorities.

Initially, Crombie signalled on the conference on Sunday that she deliberate to remain on, however after assembly with the occasion govt she issued a press release hours later asserting her exit. 

“Even though I received a majority of support from the delegates, I believe it is the best decision for the Ontario Liberal Party to facilitate an orderly transition towards a leadership vote,” she mentioned in a press release.

Crombie spent the summer season criss-crossing the province in an effort to stitch up delegate help forward of the pivotal vote. It got here as inner divisions throughout the occasion started to floor and former management rivals and a few occasion members known as for her ouster.

And a marketing campaign debrief doc launched early final week was essential of Crombie and her staff’s technique in the course of the writ interval. A 3-member committee dissected the occasion’s end, lauding the improved seat rely and work to re-gain official occasion standing.

However in addition they criticized a number of features of the marketing campaign staff’s technique and communications, together with the choice to give attention to well being care because the central theme of their platform and permitting Ford to border the vote as a struggle with U.S. President Donald Trump over his tariff insurance policies. 

WATCH: Will Bonnie Crombie keep on as Liberal chief? The occasion will resolve:

Will Bonnie Crombie keep on as Liberal chief? The occasion will resolve

Bonnie Crombie’s political future might be within the arms of Ontario Liberals this weekend, as she faces a compulsory management evaluation to find out if she’ll keep on as head of the provincial occasion.

Ontario Liberals set for his or her third management race since 2018

Crombie’s resignation means the occasion will face their third management race since 2018. The Ontario Liberals, who have been in energy for greater than 14 years till they have been defeated in 2018, have positioned third in three straight elections. The occasion couldn’t instantly say when it can launch the brand new race.

Liberal strategist Charles Chicken mentioned he expects the occasion will transfer rapidly to seek out Crombie’s successor.

“I think there’d probably be an emphasis on not waiting two years to elect a new leader,” he mentioned. “Not finding ourselves in a similar position as we did earlier this year, in terms of the leader really, not necessarily having enough time to establish herself with the people of Ontario.”

Chicken, who’s a principal at Earnscliffe Methods, mentioned he additionally thinks the occasion could look exterior the present 14 member caucus at Queen’s Park for potential candidates. 

“My sense is that the party might look for some new blood, someone who could really stimulate interest among Ontarians in terms of a new way forward,” he mentioned.

A man in a black suit and red tie speaks while surrounded by others.Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith takes questions from reporters as he arrives for a caucus assembly final June. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

Celebration faces questions on its identification, consultants say

Chief amongst Crombie’s critics have been federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, who got here an in depth second to her within the 2023 management race. Erskine-Smith mentioned in July that he had not determined if he would run if Crombie was pressured out. 

“A new leadership race would attract talent, it would attract contributions, it would attract public attention, and that’s exactly what we need if we’re going to renew this party in a serious way,” he mentioned.

Erskine-Smith didn’t instantly reply to a request for touch upon Sunday.

Crombie and Erskine-Smith symbolize completely different political leanings throughout the Ontario Liberal Celebration and completely different camps struggling for management, mentioned College of Ottawa political science professor Geneviève Tellier. Crombie tried to drag the occasion and its insurance policies again to the centre of the political spectrum, whereas Erskine-Smith would pull the occasion to the left, she mentioned.

“I think they need to have a big, big debate within the Liberal Party about its identity,” she mentioned. 

“One thing that was raised in the (campaign debrief) report was people in the field were not able to say to voters why they should vote for Liberal.”

Man wearing a bright red Liberal lanyard speaks into a microphone.Nathaniel Arfin, co-founder of the New Leaf Liberals, mentioned the Ontario Liberal Celebration wants to deal with systemic points which have held it again from drawing new volunteers and supporters. (CBC Information)

Marketing campaign debrief highlights systemic points, insider says

The marketing campaign debrief additionally laid naked quite a lot of systemic issues throughout the Liberal Celebration. Celebration volunteers within the north and rural areas felt unsupported by the central staff, who have been seen as too Toronto-focused.

The report additionally highlighted the issues over the occasion’s “starvation posture” on spending between election campaigns and the truth that the occasion’s bases supporters are getting old.

“We are not attracting enough young people, unions, ethno-cultural communities and policy-motivated groups to volunteer like we used to,” the report says. 

Nathaniel Arfin, co-founder of the New Leaf Liberals, a gaggle which known as for Crombie to step apart, mentioned the occasion has not accomplished sufficient to deal with these systemic points since 2018.

“We’ve seen in the post mortem from our elections in 2018, in 2022, and now again in 2025, the same kinds of problems,” he mentioned. “Our inability to retain volunteers, our inability to engage with people outside of the GTA and Toronto, our inability to resonate on issues that matter to more Ontarians.”

“That’s what we need, that’s what we’re going to have to move forward with,” he added.

Whereas occasion members could have been dissatisfied with Crombie’s management, a brand new management contest isn’t assured to pull the occasion collectively, Trent College political science professor Cristine de Clercy mentioned. It could additional inflame inner divisions which have existed for a while, she mentioned.

“Along with the normal rebuilding process that they’re already engaged in, this is yet another turnover, yet another set of potential frictions and fractions within the party that may well compromise their ability to be competitive in the next election,” she mentioned.

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