The 2024 NFL playoffs are right here, and the No. 1 seeds in every convention — the Chiefs within the AFC and the Lions within the NFC — will obtain first-round byes. The remaining 12 groups will play in subsequent weekend’s three-day wild-card spherical. Two video games will likely be performed Saturday; three are slated for Sunday; and the motion will culminate in a Monday night time contest that will likely be broadcast by ESPN/ABC.
Which groups are prepared for deep playoff runs? Which of them have issues that may influence their wild-card weekend matchups? And which gamers may play huge elements of their groups attending to the Tremendous Bowl?
Right here’s what every of the 14 playoff groups should do to achieve Tremendous Bowl LIX on Feb. 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Our NFL Nation staff reporters picked out strengths and weaknesses for every franchise, and analytics author Seth Walder recognized a key stat to know for every membership. Then Ben Solak gave his private warmth verify (score from 1 to 10) for every playoff squad. (Odds are by way of ESPN BET.)
AFC: 1. Chiefs2. Payments vs. 7. Broncos3. Ravens vs. 6. Steelers4. Texans vs. 5. Chargers
NFC:1. Lions2. Eagles vs. 7. Packers3. Buccaneers vs. 6. Commanders4. Rams vs. 5. Vikings
AFC
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +350FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 31.7%
First sport outlook: The Chiefs get the AFC’s prime seed for the second time in three seasons and for the fifth time since Patrick Mahomes grew to become the beginning quarterback. They are going to play within the divisional spherical in opposition to the lowest-seeded wild-card staff remaining (the No. 4 Texans, No. 5 Chargers, No. 6 Steelers or No. 7 Broncos) on both Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. The Chiefs have a mixed 5-1 report in opposition to these groups, sweeping each video games with the Chargers, beating each Houston and Pittsburgh in a stretch from Dec. 21-25 and splitting two video games with the Broncos. — ESPN
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Purpose for hope: A revitalized offense. The return of receiver Hollywood Brown, the event of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy and All-Professional guard Joe Thuney‘s play at left tackle has the offense looking like the Chiefs hoped it would all season. Kansas City played two of its best offensive games of the season in Weeks 16 and 17, its last regular-season games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the starters. “We built up to the perfect spot,” Mahomes said. “We’ve gotten higher and higher earlier than Hollywood received right here. Xavier began taking part in higher, being extra assured … it sort of units all people completely of their roles.”
Purpose for concern: Move safety. The safety has improved since Thuney moved from left guard to left sort out, however Mahomes was nonetheless sacked 36 occasions this season, probably the most he has ever taken. The Chiefs are nonetheless struggling to generate huge go performs as a consequence of Mahomes being pressured to throw the ball rapidly. Proper sort out Jawaan Taylor is the third-most penalized participant within the league with 17 penalties, and people penalties have been one thing the Chiefs have struggled to beat this season. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Chris Jones recorded 62 go rush wins this season, probably the most by a defensive sort out. It’s truly probably the most by lots. The Broncos’ Zach Allen completed with 52, whereas the Seahawks’ Leonard Williams completed third with 40. I convey this up as a result of it has been a quiet season for Jones on the sack entrance (solely 5), however make no mistake, the Chiefs nonetheless have a game-wrecker at defensive sort out who may make an enormous distinction within the playoffs. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 10. The Chiefs proved their immortality time and time once more this season, they usually enter the postseason with a first-round bye, home-field benefit and a wholesome Brown and Isiah Pacheco. How may this not be a ten? — Solak
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +475FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 21.8%
First sport outlook: The Payments will begin their sixth straight postseason by internet hosting the No. 7-seeded Broncos on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Buffalo didn’t play the Broncos this season, with their final assembly with Denver leading to 24-22 Monday night time loss at dwelling in Week 10 of the 2023 season. That sport ended with the Broncos kicking a walk-off subject aim after the Payments had been penalized for 12 males on the sphere on a game-winning miss the earlier play. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: Quarterback Josh Allen. The favourite for MVP put collectively his greatest common season so far and has traditionally thrived within the postseason. Allen led the Payments’ offense to 12 video games scoring 30 factors or extra this season, and Buffalo has dedicated solely eight turnovers, tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest in a season since 1933. “I don’t like to make comparisons; I played with Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. Those guys are special in their own right,” defensive finish Von Miller mentioned. “But this year, Josh is just doing something totally different, and he’s not forcing it. He’s not trying too hard, he’s not looking for it; it’s just him.”
Purpose for concern: Third-down protection. The Payments’ protection has been inconsistent this season and has allowed the fourth-highest third-down conversion share within the NFL (43.8%). The Payments received’t be capable to primarily depend on forcing turnovers in opposition to the robust offenses they are going to face within the AFC playoffs. Buffalo should be capable to get off the sphere on third down. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Allen has the bottom sack price (2.6%), fourth-lowest interception price (1.1%) and fifth-lowest fumble price (0.8%) amongst QBR-qualified quarterbacks. Once we consider Allen, we frequently consider big runs (he’s second to Jayden Daniels amongst quarterbacks in EPA on designed carries and scrambles) and his elite arm. However maybe his greatest talent is avoiding errors and damaging performs. It’s an enormous a part of why he’s distinctive and, presumably, the NFL MVP. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 8. The Payments didn’t have a lot to play for in Week 18, however they ended the season profitable 10 of their final 12 video games and with arguably the very best offense in soccer. They really feel deservedly nice getting into the postseason. — Solak
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James Prepare dinner powers in a 1-yard Payments speeding TD
James Prepare dinner powers his means by means of the protection for a 1-yard rush and secures a Payments landing.
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +550FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 25.9%
First sport outlook: The Ravens will play a rubber match in opposition to the AFC North rival Steelers in Baltimore on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). They break up their two regular-season conferences, because the Steelers received 18-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 11 and the Ravens received the rematch 34-17 in Baltimore in Week 16 to take the AFC North lead for good. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: The Ravens have been taking part in their greatest ball on the finish of the season. They received their last 4 video games, outscoring opponents 135-43 in a stretch that included victories over the playoff-bound Steelers and Texans. Whereas quarterback Lamar Jackson and the NFL’s No. 1 offense get the headlines, Baltimore’s protection has held groups to a league-low 15.4 factors per sport over the previous seven weeks. “Our plan now is to peak at the right time,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey mentioned, “and I feel like we’re doing that.”
Purpose for concern: Jackson’s surprisingly poor playoff monitor report. He’s the one quarterback with a number of MVPs who hasn’t captured a Tremendous Bowl title. Jackson has a 2-4 postseason report, throwing six interceptions and shedding three fumbles. In his 4 playoff losses, the Ravens have averaged solely 10.5 factors and haven’t exceed the 20-point mark. “The story’s still being written,” coach John Harbaugh mentioned of Jackson, “and there’s a lot more to accomplish.” — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: In Weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked twenty ninth in EPA allowed per opponent dropback (0.15). However in Weeks 11-18, they ranked first (minus-0.15) in the identical class. I’m stealing this statement from Solak, however the Ravens have employed Kyle Hamilton as a security on 69.3% of his snaps since Week 11. Earlier than that, he break up time amongst security, slot nook and linebacker, taking part in security on solely 26% of his snaps. That probably isn’t the one issue, however the numbers say it issues. Baltimore has been higher when Hamilton is aligned at security than when he isn’t. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 9. Jackson made an awesome December MVP push, the protection has been wonderful for the reason that secondary reshuffling, and the Ravens received the AFC North over Pittsburgh. If not for the Zay Flowers damage, this may be an ideal 10. — Solak
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +6000FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 5.7%
First sport outlook: The Texans made the playoffs for the second straight season and can host the No. 5-seeded Chargers on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). That is the eighth time since 2011 that the Texans have hosted a sport on wild-card weekend. Houston is 5-2 in these video games, most just lately defeating the Browns 45-14 final season. — ESPN
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Purpose for hope: The protection. Houston’s D has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 54.7, the seventh-lowest within the NFL. The Texans put relentless stress on quarterbacks resulting in 49 sacks, tied for fourth within the league. Danielle Hunter is tied for fifth within the league with 12 sacks, and second-year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has 11. The unit additionally has Professional Bowl cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie security Calen Bullock, who’re tied for sixth within the NFL with 5 interceptions.
Purpose for concern: Offensive inconsistency. The Texans’ offense is 18th in scoring (20.5 offensive factors per sport), so if the protection isn’t locking opponents down, Houston could possibly be in bother. One look that has given quarterback C.J. Stroud points is split-safety protection, as he has a 36.0 QBR in opposition to break up safeties (twenty eighth within the NFL). The offensive line hasn’t precisely helped its quarterback, as Stroud has been pressured 35.8% of the time this season, fourth highest within the NFL. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Texans rank twenty fourth in EPA per play since Week 10. Anybody watching the NFL this season is aware of that Houston has struggled on offense. However battle is placing it too mildly. The Texans have been dangerous. In truth, the passing sport has been down a lot in that span that it has a worse EPA per play rank than the working sport. And that’s one other factor everybody is aware of about Houston — it may’t run the ball! — Walder
Warmth verify score: 5. The Texans didn’t have the common season they anticipated, however beating up on the Titans certain is a pleasant strategy to finish issues. As long as they’ve Stroud, Nico Collins and that go rush, they’ve an opportunity. — Solak
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +2500FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 7.7%
First sport outlook: The Chargers are within the playoffs for the second time up to now three seasons and can play at Houston on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chargers have by no means performed the Texans within the playoffs and are making solely their fourth playoff look since 2010. Los Angeles’ final playoff sport didn’t go effectively, because it squandered a 27-0 first-half lead and misplaced 31-30 to the Jaguars on a walk-off subject aim within the 2022 wild-card spherical. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: Jim Harbaugh. In Harbaugh’s earlier NFL teaching stint, the 49ers made three NFC Championship Video games and one Tremendous Bowl in 4 seasons. By comparability, the Chargers as a franchise have performed in solely 4 convention championships, the latest coming in the course of the 2007 season, and one Tremendous Bowl. Harbaugh’s earlier playoff success, plus the turnaround he has engineered in getting a staff that was 5-12 in 2023 into the postseason, offers L.A. hope.
Purpose for concern: Inconsistent offense. Offense has been the Chargers’ Achilles’ heel all season, notably within the second half of video games. The Bolts common 10.3 second-half factors, rating nineteenth within the league. L.A.’s league-leading scoring protection has helped masks the offense’s second-half disappearing act, however a continuation may knock the Chargers out of the playoffs rapidly. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Chargers rank within the prime six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback. It’s notably spectacular as a result of they’ve finished it with out a tremendous go rush — they rank twenty second in go rush win price. L.A.’s fairly excessive 7.1% sack price might be extra a perform of a formidable secondary. Derwin James Jr. has the bottom yards per protection snap allowed (0.5) amongst gamers with 200 protection snaps and primarily traces up as a slot nook — however exterior nook Kristian Fulton and rookies Tarheeb Nonetheless and Cam Hart have been stable, too. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 5. The decline of the protection has turned the Chargers from AFC playoff spoiler to probably one-and-done, however the Justin Herbert–Ladd McConkey connection is a enjoyable one. Combined vibes right here. — Solak
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Justin Herbert throws a TD to DJ Chark Jr.
Justin Herbert throws a 6-yard landing go to DJ Chark Jr. to provide the Chargers a 17-10 lead heading into halftime vs. the Raiders.
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +7500FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 3.8%
First sport outlook: The Steelers will play on the rival Ravens, going through No. 3-seed Baltimore on Saturday within the wild-card spherical (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). Pittsburgh is 3-1 in opposition to the Ravens within the playoffs however misplaced the latest assembly within the 2014 wild-card spherical. The Steelers enter this matchup on five-game playoff shedding streak courting to a divisional spherical victory over the Chiefs within the 2016 playoffs. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: Russell Wilson. Regardless of a latest string of pink zone turnovers, Wilson offers the offense the sort of juice it has persistently lacked since Ben Roethlisberger’s 2019 elbow damage. In 11 begins, Wilson has accomplished 19 of 41 makes an attempt of greater than 20 air yards for 4 touchdowns and one interception. A 12 months in the past, three Steelers quarterbacks mixed to finish solely 15 of 52 makes an attempt on such passes for 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Purpose for concern: Defensive lapses. Missed assignments and communication shortcomings have contributed to the protection, usually one of many stingiest items within the league, giving up a median of 380.5 yards and 27.3 factors throughout Pittsburgh’s four-game late-season slide. The Steelers are tied for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways, however they managed solely 5 throughout their shedding streak after forcing three in every of the prior 4 contests. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: With broad receiver George Pickens on the sphere, the Steelers averaged 0.07 EPA per dropback this season. With out him, that quantity dropped to minus-0.06. For context, the primary quantity is roughly equal to the Rams’ passing offense with Matthew Stafford. The latter is the Cowboys, who’ve began Cooper Rush in practically half their video games. On-off splits may be deceptive, however I feel Pickens’ influence is fairly clear. He permits downfield throws from Wilson — Pittsburgh’s common depth of goal is 7.1 yards with Pickens on subject, 6.0 with out him — which the Steelers might want to have postseason success. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 1. The Steelers limp into the postseason on a four-game shedding streak with a banged-up T.J. Watt, continued Pickens drama and lingering uncertainty as to who the cornerback starter is reverse Joey Porter Jr. That’s discouraging stuff. — Solak
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +6000FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 3.4%
First sport outlook: The Broncos’ first playoff sport since profitable Tremendous Bowl 50 will come on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), after they head to Buffalo to face the No. 2-seeded Payments. The Broncos haven’t performed Buffalo within the playoffs for the reason that 1991 season, when the Jim Kelly-led Payments defeated the John Elway-led Broncos 10-7 en path to Tremendous Bowl XXVI. Denver has misplaced 4 straight street playoff video games courting to a victory at Pittsburgh within the 1997 AFC Championship Recreation. — ESPN
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Purpose for hope: Protection. Even with some latest bobbles — they gave up 27.3 factors per sport from Weeks 13 by means of 17 earlier than shutting out the Chiefs on Sunday — the Broncos are third within the league in general defensive effectivity, first in anticipated factors added on protection, first in sacks and third in scoring protection. Denver has scored 5 touchdowns and two safeties on protection this season. Getting again cornerback Riley Moss, who missed Weeks 13 by means of 16 with a knee damage, to stabilize the nook place reverse Professional Bowler Pat Surtain II ought to assist.
Purpose for concern: Three-and-outs. The Broncos’ offense has the third-highest share of drives which have resulted in a three-and-out this season — a whopping 26.3%. The brief possessions have resulted in misplaced momentum and an lack of ability to forestall opponents from flipping subject place. The Bo Nix-led offense has additionally put Denver’s protection in compromising positions, forcing it to return to motion rapidly. Denver averages 29:46 in possession, twentieth within the league. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos play extra man protection than every other staff (56%) and let Surtain — who has the bottom yards per protection snap (0.6) amongst exterior corners, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — take away one aspect of the sphere. Surtain achieved his success by means of goal deterrence — his 11% goal price is the third lowest amongst exterior corners with at the very least 200 protection snaps — and ball-hawking (4 interceptions). The Broncos sometimes stick Surtain on the opponent’s greatest receiver. In Week 17, Surtain lined up reverse Ja’Marr Chase 77% of the time. Surtain held the NFL’s main receiver to 27 yards as the first defender, per Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 7. Denver’s arrow has been steadily pointing up all season, and the Broncos enter the postseason with an awesome protection and numerous offense. The ceiling is low with a rookie quarterback on the helm, however the vibes are good. — Solak
NFC
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +450FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 40.3%
First sport outlook: The Lions are the NFC’s No. 1 seed for the primary time in franchise historical past and can host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner (No. 4 Rams, No. 5 Vikings, No. 6 Commanders and No. 7 Packers) within the divisional spherical on Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. Detroit hasn’t performed Washington but however is 5-0 in opposition to the opposite three opponents, sweeping two video games in opposition to Minnesota and Inexperienced Bay and beating the Rams in additional time within the season opener. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: The offense. The Lions can overwhelm opposing defenses with quite a lot of choices. Veteran QB Jared Goff has been on prime of his sport, incomes beginning quarterback honors for the upcoming Professional Bowl. Working backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, together with receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, made the Lions the primary staff in NFL historical past to have two working backs and two receivers who every topped 1,000 scrimmage yards in a single season. Montgomery’s standing is up within the air after struggling a Week 15 knee damage, although.
Purpose for concern: An injury-riddled protection. When wholesome, the Lions have been dominant at occasions. However a slew of accidents to key gamers resembling edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive sort out Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis III has taken a toll. Nook Terrion Arnold was additionally damage in Week 18. The Lions have been capable of compensate within the common season, beating the 49ers 40-34 in Week 17 regardless of giving up 475 yards, however additionally they gave up 559 yards to the Payments in a 48-42 loss in Week 15. Can they win shootouts in opposition to playoff-caliber competitors? — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Since Week 7 (their first sport after Hutchinson’s damage), the Lions have blitzed 41% of the time previous to Sunday night time’s sport, highest within the NFL. It’s their resolution for having no actual go rush with out Hutchinson, and to assist make up for all of the accidents the protection has confronted. They’ll virtually actually should depend on the blitz within the postseason, too, as a result of their splits with and with out the blitz are dramatic. Since Hutchinson’s damage, Detroit’s protection ranks third in EPA allowed per dropback when blitzing previous to Sunday night time. It drops to twenty seventh when not blitzing. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 8. The warmth verify can’t be too excessive given the defensive worries, however a house win over a divisional rival to safe the first-round bye and home-field benefit? That’s fairly the springboard into the postseason. — Solak
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0:23
Jahmyr Gibbs breaks free for Lions’ opening TD
Jahmyr Gibbs cruises untouched for his seventeenth landing of the 12 months because the Lions take the lead late within the first quarter.
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +650FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 15.5%
First sport outlook: The Eagles get a rematch of their season opener, as they are going to host the No. 7-seeded Packers within the wild-card spherical on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Philadelphia received the preliminary assembly 34-29 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, due to 109 yards and two touchdowns from working again Saquon Barkley in his Eagles debut. The Eagles haven’t received a playoff sport since beating the 49ers within the NFC Championship Recreation following the 2022 season. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: Elite personnel. The Eagles boast arguably the very best roster in soccer, which features a top-tier offensive line, MVP contender and a pair of,000-yard rusher Barkley, a dynamic receiver duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and a highly-ranked protection. It’s not solely a gifted group however a bodily one, giving it an actual probability to plow its means into the Tremendous Bowl.
Purpose for concern: Sluggish begins. The Eagles failed to attain within the first quarter of their first seven video games and 10 occasions general in the course of the common season. Philadelphia improved in that space down the stretch however nonetheless ranked twenty first in opening-quarter factors (3.7). Falling behind in opposition to good groups within the playoffs may show expensive. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Previous to resting their starters in Week 18 the Eagles ranked first in each EPA per designed keep it up offense and EPA allowed per designed keep it up protection. Philadelphia dominates within the floor sport on each side of the ball. On offense, rush yards over expectation runner-up Barkley (plus-549) and quarterback Jalen Hurts (together with all these tush push conversions) prepared the ground. On protection, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun each rank within the prime seven amongst linebackers in run cease win price. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 8. All the pieces is rosy in Philadelphia, as long as Hurts is able to come out of the concussion protocol and play subsequent week. And if he can’t, Tanner McKee most likely has a playoff win in him. — Solak
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +3000FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 11.1%
First sport outlook: The Buccaneers made the playoffs for the fifth straight season and can begin by internet hosting the No. 6-seeded Commanders on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Fox). That is one other rematch of a season opener, as Tampa Bay cruised previous Washington 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium. That is the fourth straight 12 months the Bucs have hosted a wild-card sport, as they beat the Eagles 32-9 on this spot final season. — ESPN
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Purpose for hope: A flexible, high-powered offense. The Bucs are averaging 28.6 offensive factors — fourth most within the league and third most in franchise historical past, trailing solely the Tom Brady-led Tremendous Bowl staff in 2020 and one other Brady-led staff in 2021. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 41 landing passes, tied for second within the NFL. Mayfield additionally has the third-highest completion share (71.4%) and third-most passing yards (4,500). And Tampa Bay is averaging 149.2 speeding yards, the fourth most within the league.
Purpose for concern: The protection has struggled with well being and consistency. It has not often had a wholesome squad this season, particularly within the secondary. Whereas the Buccaneers have given up solely 17.0 factors per sport since their Week 11 bye — second greatest within the league — solely a type of opponents had a profitable report. Over the course of the season, Tampa Bay has allowed 249.3 passing yards per sport, the fourth most within the league. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers recorded extra YAC over expectation (plus-498) than every other staff this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. NGS outputs an anticipated variety of yards after the catch primarily based on the positioning, velocity and course of all 22 gamers on the sphere when the catch is made. And the Bucs have 4 gamers with at the very least 90 YAC over expectation: RB Bucky Irving (123), WR Chris Godwin (112), RB Rachaad White (99) and TE Cade Otton (90). YAC accounted for 54% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards, the seventh most within the league. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 2. It took a a lot bigger effort to beat the Saints in Week 18 than anticipated, and that go protection is the offender — however Mayfield had one other shaky sport, too. The Buccaneers are within the huge dance by the pores and skin of their tooth. — Solak
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +3500FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 5.9%
First sport outlook: The Rams will make their second straight playoff look and sixth in Sean McVay’s eight seasons as head coach after they host the Vikings on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+). Los Angeles gave the Vikings certainly one of their three losses this season, defeating Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7 at SoFi Stadium. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: Drastic defensive enchancment. The Rams’ protection gave up two touchdowns in Weeks 15 by means of 17 because it made a playoff push after a 1-4 begin. After permitting a median of 23.6 factors in its first 13 video games, Los Angeles allowed 24 complete within the three video games previous to clinching the NFC West. An enormous cause for the advance is the play of its defensive entrance, together with first-round decide Jared Verse, who was named to the Professional Bowl because the Rams’ lone consultant.
Purpose for concern: An especially inconsistent offense. After scoring 44 factors in opposition to the Payments in Week 14, the Rams’ offense scored that mixed complete in Weeks 15 by means of 17. Los Angeles has particularly struggled within the first quarter this season, failing to attain a landing in 13 of its 16 video games through which quarterback Matthew Stafford and the beginning offense performed. The Rams have averaged 21.6 factors per sport this season, good for under twentieth within the NFL. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Extensive receiver Puka Nacua has a 40% goal price. Nacua is within the midst of a historic season … however since he missed six video games, the totals aren’t gaudy. However the truth he will get the ball thrown to him 40% of the time he runs a route is ridiculous. That’s the very best goal price for a participant with at the very least 200 routes run in a season since at the very least 2007 — way back to ESPN’s route knowledge extends. Nacua’s 3.7 yards per route run rank third in that span (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith Sr. in 2008), too. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 4. The final aggressive video games we noticed the Rams play had been 12-point, 19-point and 13-point outings in opposition to non-elite defensives — so I’m nervous. However they had been all wins with good defensive performances from Chris Shula’s younger group — so I’m not too nervous. — Solak
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +800FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 10.1%
First sport outlook: The Vikings will play on the Rams within the wild-card spherical on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+) after falling to the Lions on Sunday night time. The one non-Detroit loss the Vikings have suffered this season got here at SoFi Stadium, because the Rams defeated Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7. These groups haven’t performed within the postseason for the reason that 1999 divisional spherical, when the then-St. Louis Rams outscored the Vikings 49-37 on their strategy to a Tremendous Bowl crown. — ESPN
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Purpose for hope: Steadiness. The Vikings can win in quite a lot of methods, as their offense and protection every rank among the many NFL’s prime 10 in scoring. That will increase the variety of pathways they’ll journey to a playoff win. It may come by way of an enormous passing day from quarterback Sam Darnold to receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Or the protection may carry the staff with a sequence of well-timed takeaways, after tying for first within the league with 33. In different phrases, it could take an all-22 effort from an opponent to knock Minnesota from the postseason.
Purpose for concern: The Vikings are 9-1 in one-score video games for a number of causes, together with well-timed subject targets from Will Reichard and John Parker Romo, who served as a four-game damage alternative. Reichard opened the season by changing his first 14 subject aim makes an attempt earlier than struggling a quadriceps damage. Since then, Reichard has made 10 of 16 kicks. The Vikings nonetheless have full confidence in Reichard and don’t consider that he’s having any lingering results from his damage. However taking a rookie kicker into the playoffs may be nerve-wracking, particularly when he enters the postseason in a little bit of a hunch. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Previous to Sunday night time, Darnold had a 4.8% completion share over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, second highest amongst quarterbacks. That quantity represents a dramatic enchancment. Getting into this season, Darnold had a minus-2.0% profession completion share over expectation. A few of the change can probably be attributed to his robust broad receivers, nevertheless it’s additionally a illustration of higher accuracy. Darnold’s off-target price dropped from 18% earlier than this season to 12% in 2024, regardless of throwing barely deeper passes this season in comparison with his previous. — Walder
Warmth verify score: 7. The Vikings may have carried an ideal 10 had they overwhelmed the Lions on Sunday night time, however that is nonetheless a wonderful staff on each side of the ball. Few groups have received three straight playoff video games on the street, but when anybody can do it, I’d again these Vikings. — Solak
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +3000FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 5.3%
First sport outlook: The Commanders return to the playoffs for the primary time since 2020 after they play on the No. 3-seeded Buccaneers on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Peacock). Tampa Bay was additionally Washington’s opponent the final time the franchise made the postseason, because the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers defeated the then-Washington Soccer Crew within the wild-card spherical en path to a Tremendous Bowl title. Washington is 1-2 in opposition to the Buccaneers within the playoffs. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: Quarterback Jayden Daniels. He received’t win the MVP, however few gamers have been extra beneficial to their staff. Daniels has thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushed for 864 yards and 6 extra scores. He has a knack for giant performs on the proper time and has led 4 game-winning drives, with three landing passes approaching the ultimate play from scrimmage. Daniels ranks second within the NFL with 12 landing passes within the fourth quarter and additional time.
Purpose for concern: The run protection. Washington has the lowest-ranked run protection of any playoff staff and solely two groups, playoff or in any other case, had been worse this season. Solely two allowed extra yards per carry than the Commanders (4.8), too. Washington has fared higher of late, holding Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson to a mixed 20 carries and 35 yards within the second half throughout Weeks 16 and 17. But when a staff with a prime quarterback can also be capable of run on the Commanders, will probably be robust for Washington to advance. — John Keim
Stat to know: Daniels recorded 59 complete EPA on designed runs and scrambles. That’s greater than every other participant this season and exhibits simply how vital Daniels’ speeding manufacturing has been to the Commanders. Twenty-six p.c of Washington’s third- and fourth-down conversions this season have come by way of QB run, which ranks third within the league behind the Eagles and Payments. However once you take away performs with one yard to go, the Commanders have used the quarterback run to transform 22% of their third and fourth downs, the very best mark within the NFL — Walder
Warmth verify score: 3. Save for the last-second win over the Eagles in Week 16, the again half of the season has largely been shaky for the Commanders, and the Week 18 first-half flop from the beginning offense in opposition to Dallas does little to assuage issues. — Solak
ESPN
Odds to win Tremendous Bowl: +1600FPI probability to make Tremendous Bowl: 11.9%
First sport outlook: The Packers get an opportunity to settle the rating from their Brazilian season opener, as they are going to head to Philadelphia to play on the Eagles on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). The Packers had been in an analogous place final season, as they upset the NFC East champion Cowboys because the No. 7 seed within the wild-card spherical. Inexperienced Bay additionally received its final playoff assembly between the groups, profitable in Philadelphia within the 2010 wild-card en path to the Tremendous Bowl XLV title. — ESPN
Purpose for hope: The Packers do two issues extraordinarily effectively — run the ball and drive turnovers. The Packers are ranked within the prime 5 in each classes — speeding yards per sport (146.8) and complete takeaways (31). They’ve relied closely on Professional Bowl working again Josh Jacobs to hold the load (1,329 speeding yards) and have one of many NFL’s interception leaders in security Xavier McKinney (seven). That’s an excellent mixture for playoff success.
Purpose for concern: The Packers haven’t overwhelmed lots of the NFC’s playoff groups. They’re a mixed 0-5 in opposition to the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. Their greatest win got here on the NFC West champion Rams, however that was again in Week 5 when the Rams had been riddled with accidents, particularly on offense. “There’s a margin of error that is razor thin,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur mentioned, “and when you’re playing good teams, you got to be better.” — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Jordan Love ranks fifth in QBR with a 68.7. It has been a quiet climb for Love’s effectivity on a Packers staff that has leaned on the bottom sport this season. However after starting the season with six consecutive video games with at the very least one interception, Love hasn’t thrown one up to now seven. Since Week 12, Love has the very best QBR (83.0) within the NFL. It’s just like final season, when Love additionally had the very best QBR within the league from Week 12 on. — Walder
