Pollster Nate Silver stated he has “a lot of sympathy” for Vice President Harris after her loss to President-elect Trump as a result of President Biden “did her no favors” earlier than or after he dropped out of the presidential race this summer season.
“He gave her tough assignments — the border, perhaps Democrats’ worst issue, and voting rights, an issue on which the White House probably knew it wouldn’t make any progress,” Silver acknowledged in a publish to his web site on Friday, referencing the vp’s focuses whereas in workplace.
“He blew up the debate calendar, leaving nothing scheduled after Sept. 11 even though this was one of Harris’s best formats,” he added. “Even up to the bitter end, Biden was stepping on her message.”
However Silver argued this sentiment warped some optimistic views of Harris’s candidacy, stating she is a “replacement-level politician” and that somebody “average or slightly above average” was wanted to beat Trump.
“I think people confuse their sympathy for Harris’s position for her having been a good candidate,” he penned, citing her underperformance in comparison with Democratic Senate candidates on the November poll.
“On net, Harris underperformed the Democratic Senate candidate by an average of 2.6 points and a median of 2.4,” he wrote.
Causes for this underperformance, in keeping with Silver, included issues with messaging and a “refusal” to distinguish herself from Biden in addition to her shifting stances between her first bid for the White Home in 2020 and her most up-to-date try in 2024.
“She may have tried to pivot to the center in this campaign, but it was a clumsy effort at best given a lack of explanation for why she’d abandoned her previous positions or what her agenda would actually look like,” he stated.
Nonetheless, Silver maintains that Biden would have misplaced if he stayed on the prime of the ticket, citing reporting that inside polling confirmed Trump profitable 400 electoral votes.
“When Biden dropped out, he was trailing Donald Trump by 4 points in our national polling average. I actually think the final margin would have gotten worse, not better,” Silver stated.
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