David SchoenfieldDec 17, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Shut
Covers MLB for ESPN.com
Former deputy editor of Web page 2
Been with ESPN.com since 1995
We’ve began to see some high free brokers come off the board because the MLB offseason has gotten rolling: Kyle Schwarber again to the Philadelphia Phillies, Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles and Dylan Stop to the Toronto Blue Jays. The nearer market additionally moved shortly: Devin Williams to the New York Mets, Edwin Diaz then ditching the Mets for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Robert Suarez to the Atlanta Braves and Ryan Helsley to Baltimore.
That also leaves seven of the highest 10 free brokers from Kiley McDaniel’s top-50 rating unsigned. Let’s take a look at that group and see the place issues stand. The crew on the middle of the whole lot proper now could be the Mets: They’ve must fill and cash to spend and will likely be a key participant in how the remainder of this offseason performs out.
We’ll checklist Kiley’s contract projections for every participant — together with up to date projections for the 4 remaining massive free agent hitters, based mostly on how the offers for Schwarber and Alonso have reset that market. Then, after all, we’ll make some predictions that can definitely be appropriate.
2025 free agent rating: 1
Preliminary projection: 11 years, $418 millionNew projection: 11 years, $418 million (with potential deferrals)
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What concerning the Mets? The Mets shortly changed Alonso with Jorge Polanco, however they’ve holes within the outfield, the place Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor and prospect Carson Benge are the present candidates to go well with up alongside Juan Soto. The payroll is a few $42 million beneath the place it was in 2025, by way of Roster Useful resource at FanGraphs, however the Mets nonetheless want a front-line beginning pitcher and bullpen depth.
Does the reluctance to present Diaz and Alonso long-term contracts preclude signing the youthful Tucker? Not essentially, but it surely’s clear president of baseball operations David Stearns is working with a disciplined mission this offseason, specializing in upgrading the crew’s protection and never getting trapped into longer offers that may shortly go awry. Plus, with Soto coming into the second 12 months of a 15-year contract, does it make sense to present one other long-term deal to an outfielder? Most likely not.
What concerning the Dodgers? The Dodgers might shift Teoscar Hernandez to left discipline and signal Tucker to play proper discipline, particularly with the payroll about $43 million beneath the place it was in 2025. However do the Dodgers imagine that a lot in Tucker to present him a megadeal? In some unspecified time in the future, they do must weave some youthful place gamers into the lineup — and their high prospects are all outfielders: Josue De Paula, Eduardo Quintero, Mike Sirota and Zyhir Hope. Tucker on a shorter cope with the next AAV would possibly work if an extended one isn’t on the market for him.
Prediction: Blue Jays. The Jays are doubling down on their World Sequence look thus far, signing starters Stop and Cody Ponce, who’s coming off Korean League MVP honors, in addition to reliever Tyler Rogers. With George Springer within the remaining 12 months of his deal, Tucker may be seen as Springer’s substitute within the outfield (with Anthony Santander because the DH). The Jays even have quite a lot of different cash coming off the books after 2026 (Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Myles Straw and Yimi Garcia). Together with Springer, that’s $78 million, to allow them to soak up the long-term implications of a Tucker deal.
2025 free agent rating: 2
Preliminary projection: 6 years, $168 million
Workforce that is likely to be out: Blue Jays. With Bieber exercising his participant choice after which the Jays signing Stop and Ponce, the rotation appears settled for 2026.
What concerning the Mets? Final offseason, Stearns tried the second-tier route to repair the rotation, signing Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal, Clay Holmes for 3 years and $38 million, and Frankie Montas for 2 years and $34 million. It didn’t precisely work. Holmes was fantastic, however Manaea had a 5.64 ERA in 12 begins whereas Montas made simply seven begins and the Mets launched him after the season. Provided that Mets starters ranked twenty seventh within the majors, let’s see if Stearns swims in deeper waters this time and indicators the highest starter on the market, one who has averaged 192 innings the previous 4 seasons. However does Stearns have the urge for food to signal a pitcher for longer than three years? Studies appear to recommend the reply to that query isn’t any — and {that a} commerce is extra possible.
What concerning the Orioles? Signing Alonso shouldn’t forestall the Orioles from going after one of many high remaining beginning pitchers. Certainly, after signing Alonso and buying and selling for Taylor Ward (a free agent after 2026) the urgency to win now has solely elevated. The payroll is $22 million beneath 2025’s $160 million. Is that sufficient room to signal Valdez? A extra possible choice is likely to be a starter simply exterior the highest 10 free brokers, similar to Ranger Suarez or Michael King.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs. The Cubs want a top-of-the-rotation starter, a man they really feel extra assured handing the ball to in a playoff sport than they did with Matthew Boyd or Shota Imanaga. In addition they have the payroll flexibility to do it, sitting about $22 million beneath final season’s whole.
2025 free agent rating: 3
Preliminary projection: 6 years, $165 millionNew projection: 6 years, $180 million
Workforce that is likely to be out: Cincinnati Reds. Not that the Reds have been ever in on Bellinger, however they have been in on Schwarber. Despite the fact that Bellinger matches a necessity within the outfield, the Reds’ curiosity in Schwarber was apparently solely because of possession’s perception the Ohio native would assist promote tickets.
What concerning the New York Yankees? It has been a quiet offseason thus far for the Yankees, however normal supervisor Brian Cashman reiterated on the winter conferences that the Yankees nonetheless need Bellinger again after his stellar 5.1-WAR season within the Bronx. Whereas they don’t essentially wish to hand over on Jasson Dominguez, there’s nonetheless loads of room for Bellinger, particularly since he can play middle — which permits New York to hedge towards Trent Grisham regressing from his stunning 2025 numbers. Bellinger might additionally fill in at first base or play proper discipline when Aaron Decide wants a DH day.
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Prediction: Mets. Stearns is clearly emphasizing protection — bringing in Marcus Semien to play second base and ditching Alonso. Bellinger matches in that regard, particularly in left discipline, the place he could be a plus defender, and he can deal with middle as effectively. The Dodgers might be within the combine right here as effectively, however that outfield gap for the Mets is obvious. In the event that they aren’t going to signal Tucker and in the event that they’re not prepared to present a long-term deal to a pitcher, Bellinger is the very best match for them on the high of the market.
Would the Mets give Bellinger an even bigger contract than the one Alonso acquired from the Orioles? Bellinger is just a 12 months youthful, however over the previous three seasons he has averaged 4.0 WAR whereas Alonso averaged 3.1
2025 free agent rating: 4
Preliminary projection: 5 years, $160 millionNew projection: 5 or 6 years, $170 million
Workforce that is likely to be out: Detroit Tigers. Bregman and the Tigers felt like the right match final offseason when Bregman was a free agent, however Buster Olney lately reported on an episode of the Baseball Tonight podcast that negotiations turned a “little bit nasty” final 12 months, making it much less possible for a match this time round.
What concerning the Mets? This was a preferred prediction on the outset of free company, however the Mets now appear dedicated to Brett Baty at third base. Bregman’s age — he’s coming into his age-32 season — additionally makes him a dangerous guess, and Stearns is clearly anti-risk.
What concerning the Cubs? The Cubs went arduous after Bregman final season and there have been reviews of curiosity as soon as once more, despite the fact that Matt Shaw performed significantly better within the second half of his rookie season (.258/.317/.522).
Prediction: Boston Purple Sox. In the long run, a return to Boston nonetheless makes probably the most sense. The Purple Sox went after Schwarber and Alonso, they usually want Bregman’s right-handed bat to assist stability out the lefty-heavy lineup.
2025 free agent rating: 5
Preliminary projection: 6 years, $135 million
What concerning the Mets? If the Dodgers are out, Imai touchdown with a big-market East Coast crew definitely appears like a powerful chance. However there’s nonetheless the difficulty of whether or not Stearns will give a pitcher a long-term deal — and Imai is predicted to get 5 or 6 years.
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What concerning the Yankees? Imai has till Jan. 2 to signal, so this might occur any day. The rotation isn’t actually a necessity for the Yankees — they completed fourth in rotation ERA in 2025 with out Gerrit Cole, who ought to be again sooner or later within the first half of the 2026 season after present process Tommy John surgical procedure in March 2025. However they’re undoubtedly taking a look at all the Dodgers’ Japanese starters with envy, plus there are rumors of the Yankees going after a beginning pitcher (similar to a return engagement with King).
Prediction: San Francisco Giants. The Giants are going to be within the combine for a number of of those high guys — Tucker, Bellinger and the pitchers. Heck, if Imai needs to beat the Dodgers, how about becoming a member of a crew the place he can face them 4 or 5 occasions a season? The Giants’ payroll is just $8 million below 2025’s whole, however that 2025 determine was about $30 million beneath 2024. They’ve room to pay, they want a beginning pitcher and Robbie Ray is a free agent after 2026.
2025 free agent rating: 7
Preliminary projection: 5 years, $130 millionNew projection: 5 years, $150 million
Workforce that is likely to be out: Braves. With the one-year deal given to Ha-Seong Kim for $20 million to return to Atlanta, the place he performed 24 video games on the finish of the season, the Braves would seemingly be out on Bichette. They’ve Kim at shortstop, Ozzie Albies at second and Mauricio Dubon in a utility function.
What concerning the Mets? Bichette’s age — he’s coming into his age-28 season — makes him the type of free agent who is likely to be extra enticing to Stearns, though the Mets have their double-play combo set with Francisco Lindor and Semien. However what about Bichette transferring to 3rd? His vary at shortstop is subpar anyway, and that was earlier than the knee harm in September. Executives love his high-contact price that ought to translate effectively to October baseball — and he would make for a terrific No. 3 hitter behind Lindor and Soto. Baty would then grow to be commerce bait for pitching or outfield assist. Don’t sleep on this one.
What concerning the Blue Jays? A return definitely matches, with Andres Gimenez taking up at shortstop and Bichette sliding to second base on a everlasting foundation. However do the Jays have an urge for food to signal each Tucker and Bichette? They do additionally produce other infield choices, with Addison Barger taking part in third base after splitting time between third and proper discipline in 2025 and Ernie Clement taking part in second on a full-time foundation.
Prediction: Yankees. We’re making an attempt to learn the tea leaves right here, and people Jazz Chisholm Jr. commerce rumors preserve popping up. Maybe the Yankees try to clear house for a brand new infielder? Bichette might both present an alternative choice at shortstop to Anthony Volpe, who struggled on the plate in 2025 and noticed his protection regress as effectively, or play second, with Jose Caballero nonetheless round to again up each positions.
2025 free agent rating: 10
Preliminary projection: 5 years, $80 million
Workforce that is likely to be out: Mets. Murakami and the Mets have been linked early on, however given Stearns’ defensive emphasis and the signing of Polanco to play first base — the place many scouts imagine Murakami is greatest suited to play — there doesn’t appear to be a transparent match, until the Mets flip him right into a full-time DH (and Mark Vientos remains to be round for that function or might share it with Polanco).
What concerning the Purple Sox? The Purple Sox have clearly been on the prowl for a slugger and Murakami’s energy potential is big — though it is going to include quite a lot of swing-and-miss. If the Purple Sox are uninterested in Triston Casas‘ continued harm points, Murakami is a match at first base. His age — he turns 26 in February — additionally makes him enticing, regardless of the strikeout threat.
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What concerning the Seattle Mariners? On the winter conferences, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto mentioned the Mariners have been nonetheless curious about including yet another hitter. That clearly gained’t be re-signing Polanco. They’ve been talked about in commerce rumors for Brendan Donovan and Ketel Marte. However what about holding their prospects and simply signing Murakami to play third base and DH? The Mariners may not wish to add one other strikeout-prone hitter, but when the bidding for Murakami does fall beneath 9 figures, possibly they get within the combine.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox. Murakami’s deadline to signal is Dec. 22, so we’re working out of time. His market nonetheless appears extensive open. The Phillies is also an fascinating match, or possibly the Los Angeles Angels wish to do one thing. Certainly, if any of those high 10 free brokers land in a stunning spot, Murakami is likely to be the one. The White Sox have cash to spend — their present estimated payroll is simply $68 million and that features $20 million for Luis Robert Jr., who is likely to be traded. They’ve a determined want for energy and Murakami matches at both third or first, relying on the place Miguel Vargas finally ends up. This could be a pleasant roll of the cube for a White Sox crew that appears to be on the rise.
