Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of an important polling developments or information factors you might want to find out about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Every day Kos reporting, plus a vibe test on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Republicans’ proposed Medicaid cuts hit house
This previous week, Home Republicans launched their first main piece of laws, “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL”—caps included—which might slash over $700 billion from Medicaid and kick thousands and thousands of individuals off their medical insurance.
In different phrases, Republicans are performing like they don’t symbolize anybody enrolled in Medicaid—which is much from the reality.
On common, 1 in 5 People dwelling in a Republican-held Home district is enrolled in Medicaid, in keeping with a Every day Kos evaluation of knowledge compiled by KFF. In truth, 13 GOP-held districts have 1 in 3 enrolled in Medicaid, and two districts have greater than half of residents registered within the public medical insurance program.
Sixty-four % of California’s twenty second District is enrolled in Medicaid. The district is represented by David Valadao, a moderate-ish Republican who voted to question President Donald Trump within the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol revolt. He gained reelection final yr, with 53.4% of the vote to his Democratic challenger’s 46.6%. Nonetheless, 495,200 of his constituents, together with 176,600 youngsters, are enrolled in Medicaid, so if he votes to slash this system, it is going to possible backfire.
Nevertheless, Kentucky’s fifth District—the place 54% are enrolled in Medicaid—is one other story. It’s represented by far-right Republican Hal Rogers, and final yr, Democrats didn’t contest the district, which Trump gained with 79% of the vote. Margins like that may give Rogers, a person of little character, no cause to not vote to jeopardize well being protection for greater than half of his constituents.
Nonetheless, Medicaid is a extremely popular program, with 88% of Democrats, 81% of independents, and even 64% of Republicans having a good view of it, in keeping with a KFF ballot carried out in January.
If Republicans undergo with their Medicaid-wrecking funds invoice, it’ll give Democrats a simple, resonant line of assault forward of the 2026 midterm elections. It’s simply an terrible disgrace that it’ll come on the expense of low-income and disabled of us struggling.
Okay, doomer
Struggle, what’s it good for? One thing to really feel scared about, apparently.
A brand new YouGov ballot for The Economist finds that 44% of U.S. grownup residents assume a world warfare is extra possible now than it was 5 years in the past. Solely 13% say a world warfare is much less possible now, whereas 30% say it’s about the identical.
Worse, 36% of People say a nuclear warfare is extra possible at this time than 5 years in the past, whereas an identical share (34%) say it’s about the identical. Nonetheless, solely 14% say it’s much less possible now.
That sounds unhealthy—very unhealthy—however the reality is, fears of a nuclear warfare appear to be petering out or no less than plateauing.
Every day Kos tracked down 17 polls by which YouGov requested in regards to the present probability of nuclear warfare in contrast with 5 years prior, with the primary survey getting into the sphere simply two days after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. That ballot discovered that 48% of People believed nuclear warfare was extra possible at the moment than 5 years prior.
In a ballot fielded the next week, that quantity spiked to 59%, presumably as a result of elevated media protection of Russia’s invasion.
However to date, 59% has been the height, with that determine steadily dropping to the mid-to-low 40s by September 2022. There was a quick spike again as much as round 50% between October and November of that yr, possible spurred by faltering talks of a brand new Iran nuclear deal in addition to the continuing warfare in Ukraine. However in January, it fell once more to 42%.
And now it has fallen additional, to 36%. However why?
It’s potential that many People who noticed a larger risk in 2022-2023 have since settled right into a kind of center floor: 34% of People within the newest ballot say the possibilities of nuclear warfare are “about the same” as 5 years in the past. That’s the best “about the same” determine throughout the 17 polls. This might imply that the elevated risk People felt again then has since stabilized.
Rescue staff clear the rubble of a college constructing destroyed by a Russian missile strike on Sumy, Ukraine, on April 13.
It’s additionally potential that People’ elevated concern of a nuclear warfare was tied to media protection round Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In spite of everything, Russia is estimated to have the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, at 5,580 warheads, and solely the U.S. comes shut with 5,22 of its personal. If a nuclear warfare have been to start out, it’d most likely contain one or each of these nations at some capability. However because the warfare in Ukraine has light from entrance pages, People’ nuclear fears have stabilized or decreased.
One more reason for People’ altering attitudes could possibly be partisanship. Throughout all polls carried out whereas Joe Biden was president, a median of 46% of Democrats stated the present likelihood of nuclear warfare was larger than 5 years prior, nearly the identical because the share within the newest ballot (45%). Nevertheless, throughout Biden’s presidency, the common share of Republicans who felt the identical manner was 57%—and it by no means dipped under 48%. However the newest ballot, carried out greater than 100 days into Trump’s second administration, finds that simply 28% of Republicans say nuclear warfare is extra possible than 5 years in the past.
Hmm … marvel what modified.
Dissatisfied with freedoms
Newly launched information from Gallup finds People are much less happy with their freedoms than their world friends—however a lot of that has to do with how a lot much less free American ladies really feel.
Seventy-two of People have been happy with their freedom to dwell their life as they see match. Nevertheless, that’s under the worldwide median (81%) and properly under these dwelling in wealthy, market-based economies (86%). Nevertheless, in 2021, 81% of People have been happy with their freedoms.
So what occurred? The Dobbs choice occurred, principally.
The share of American ladies who have been happy with their freedoms dropped from 81% in 2021 to 71% in 2022—and has continued to fall, reaching 66% final yr. That makes for a 15-point drop since 2021, and it’s thrice the decline males noticed between 2021 and 2024 (5 factors).
Gallup’s information hyperlinks this decline and this gender hole to the Supreme Court docket’s choice in Dobbs v. Jackson Girls’s Well being Group, which eradicated the constitutional proper to abortion. Why that hyperlink? As a result of Gallup’s 2022 survey was within the area as Politico reported on a leaked draft of that call, on Could 2, 2022.
In surveys accomplished within the days earlier than Politico’s report, 80% of American ladies stated they felt happy with their freedom within the U.S., however within the days instantly after the report, that quantity plummeted to 68%. In the meantime, the share of American males who have been happy with their freedoms remained basically unchanged (75% earlier than the leak, 77% after the leak).
Like all good information science agency, Gallup hedges its discovering, writing, “While the poll doesn’t ask people why they do or don’t feel satisfied with their freedom, the timing of the 2022 decline relative to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs suggests that the loss of constitutional protection for abortion could be a strong factor” in People’ declining satisfaction with their private freedom.
“That decision coincided with a decline in women’s satisfaction with their freedom, one that has only deepened since,” Gallup added.
Any updates?
Trump has accepted a deliberate bribe from the Qatari authorities within the type of a $400 million luxurious jet that his presidential library will personal after he exits the White Home—and shockingly, 52% of People say this present will affect Trump’s actions as president, in keeping with a brand new YouGov information. Moreover, 47% say his acceptance of the present is “unacceptable.”
Vibe test
As of Friday, 60% of registered voters assume abortion ought to be authorized in most or all instances, whereas 37% assume it ought to be unlawful in most or all instances, in keeping with Civiqs. Nevertheless, amongst feminine voters, 66% assist abortion being authorized in most/all instances, and solely 31% assume it ought to be unlawful in most/all instances.
Help for abortion rights is decrease amongst males. The plurality (35%) say abortion ought to be unlawful typically, with one other 9% saying it ought to be unlawful in all instances. In the meantime, 29% say it ought to be authorized typically, and 23% say it ought to be authorized in all instances.
Marketing campaign Motion
