One of many silliest preelection narratives across the New York Metropolis mayoral race was the supposed worry {that a} victory by democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani would spark an exodus of town’s rich elite.
Billionaire investor and all-around Trumpian asshole Invoice Ackman was typical of the lot, crying on X this previous summer time that each companies and rich individuals had “already started making arrangements for the exits.” Barstool Sports activities founder Dave Portnoy, one other obnoxious MAGA bro, claimed he would possibly transfer his firm out of New York “because I hate the guy.” His grand plan? Transfer to New Jersey. Equally high-tax, equally liberal. So … yeah.
John Catsimatidis and Margo Catsimatidis attend The King’s Belief World Gala at Casa Cipriani on Could 2, 2024, in New York Metropolis.
Grocery mogul John Catsimatidis, who runs the Gristedes and D’Agostino Supermarkets chains, additionally threatened a transfer to New Jersey.
“We may consider closing our supermarkets and selling the business,” the 76-year-old entrepreneur informed The Free Press. “We have other businesses. Thank God, we have other businesses.”
And it wasn’t simply right-wingers. New York’s Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul fretted a couple of potential Mamdani win as a result of “I don’t want to lose any more people to Palm Beach. We’ve lost enough.”
Consultants have been rolling their eyes at these threats all alongside.
In main cities like New York, individuals worth the humanities, enterprise alternatives, and the flexibility to rent expertise. ABC’s reporting contains a number of researchers making the identical level: Whereas the rich like to complain and posture, they not often comply with by.
“Movement of rich people on the basis of tax differentials is relatively small,” stated Northwestern College professor Jeffrey Winters. “It’s very common for them to threaten to move. The risk is grossly overstated.”
Consider everybody who stated they’d transfer to Canada if Donald Trump gained the presidential race. Speaking is all the time simpler than performing.
Nonetheless, the New York Submit—being the right-wing tabloid it’s—retains making an attempt to manifest this fantasy.
“‘Mamdani effect’: Miami realtors report 166% spike in inquiries from wealthy NYC residents,” blared a current headline. However even the story instantly contradicts itself: “Manhattan luxury contracts actually jumped 25% in November… a surge some brokers said shows ‘there is no Mamdani effect.’” The one sources within the Submit story claiming in any other case are Miami actual property brokers who earn money convincing New Yorkers to relocate.
And because the Submit didn’t trouble offering uncooked numbers, that “166% spike” may actually imply inquiries went from three to eight. A cellphone name isn’t a transfer. Actually, the quantity is nearly definitely made up.
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As for actual numbers?
“Sales of luxury homes in Manhattan jumped in November, countering fears that the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor would drive out wealthy residents,” Bloomberg reported. Patrons signed contracts on 176 houses priced at $4 million or extra, up 25% from the month prior. These included condos bought for round $24 million every. Not precisely a market in retreat.
There’s an much more telling statistic: Luxurious housing stock is down.
“[I]nventory actually fell 16% in the luxury market from October 2024 to October 2025, indicating that there is no flood of New Yorkers selling their homes and leaving town,” reported USA At this time. If the rich have been operating for the exits, stock can be skyrocketing. As an alternative, it’s tightening.
In fact nobody likes paying increased taxes. Even these of us who consider in a purposeful authorities don’t take pleasure in writing the examine yearly—we simply see it as the price of a society that works. So it’s pure for rich New Yorkers to gripe about an additional 2% tax on incomes over $1 million (which doubtless gained’t occur anyway; Albany leaders appear bored with backing Mamdani’s marketing campaign proposal).
However the actuality is that New York Metropolis’s rich residents get so much for what they pay. One other Bloomberg story options David Bahnsen, a Republican wealth supervisor who sits on the board of the conservative Nationwide Overview. He despises town’s liberal politics, calling them “contemptible.” And whereas he frets about potential tax will increase, he isn’t going anyplace.
The luxurious, residential skyscraper buildings of “Billionaire’s Row” in Manhattan are seen from Central Park in New York Metropolis on Feb. 20, 2022.
Bahnsen overtly acknowledges that New York provides him benefits he can’t get anyplace else—the shoppers, the expertise, the nonstop drive of the place. What actually hooks him, he says, is “the energy of the city, the ambition.” That spark doesn’t exist within the low-tax red-state enclaves conservatives declare are paradise. Actually not in Florida.
And he’s not simply staying—he’s thriving: morning jogs in Central Park, Broadway reveals, eating out each night time, strolling 40,000 steps on a typical weekend, even understanding of places of work which might be steps from the Museum of Fashionable Artwork. Sounds fairly good, truly.
And that’s actually the dynamic at play: The rich keep as a result of New York provides them a life-style they’ll’t replicate anyplace else. Town’s enchantment isn’t simply the museums, the theater, the eating places, or the expertise pool—although all of that issues. It’s the density of alternative. It’s being in a spot the place essentially the most bold individuals on the planet cross paths each single day. Offers get remodeled espresso as a result of everybody who’s anybody is already there. Total industries cluster on the identical few blocks. For individuals with the liberty and means to benefit from all that, the price of residing is just baked into the worth of admission.
For them, the taxes aren’t a deterrent as a result of New York Metropolis delivers one thing tangible in return: world-class public facilities, a artistic and financial ecosystem unmatched anyplace within the nation, and an power that makes even essentially the most cussed conservative wealth supervisor admit town is value it. As Bahnsen stated—maybe after skimming one other anti-tax screed within the journal he bankrolls—Central Park alone is “worth the cost of living in the city.”
And he’s proper. The place else are you able to step out of a skyscraper, stroll a number of blocks, and be surrounded by 843 acres of city wilderness, all maintained and accessible as a result of New Yorkers collectively pay for it? And nothing Mamdani has proposed threatens any of that.
However NYC’s value of admission isn’t the identical for everybody. The facilities, power, and alternative that make New York irresistible to the rich don’t trickle down—they get walled off by town’s staggering value of housing, youngster care, transit, and each day life. In the event you can’t purchase your approach into the model of the Large Apple that’s thriving, you get squeezed into the model that isn’t. And ultimately, you get pushed out completely.
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Northwestern College professor Winters highlights that time.
“We are worried about the outflow of the very wealthiest people… when in fact the biggest outflow of people is among those who can’t afford even the basics of staying there,” he warned.
The wealthy aren’t fleeing Mamdani’s New York. However the working class and the struggling center class? They’ve been leaving for years as a result of the worth of admission retains rising whereas their entry to town’s prosperity retains shrinking.
That’s the power Mamdani tapped into. That’s what led to his resounding victory.
And that’s New York Metropolis’s actual problem within the years forward.
