The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Ship inquiries to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and embody ‘mailbag’ within the topic line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
Why is the ACC so unhealthy? I assumed Stanford was going to a basketball convention. — Harold G
In comparison with its friends, the ACC has skilled a tough season. Present projections present a most of 4 groups (Duke, Louisville, Clemson and North Carolina) headed to the NCAA Event.
That’s 4 of 18 faculties, or simply 22 % of the membership.
In the meantime, the SEC may ship 14 groups to the NCAAs (an astounding 87.5 %), with the Huge Ten gathering 9 bids (50 %) and the Huge 12 eight (50 %).
This isn’t new. Though the ACC did nicely as soon as event play started final season, it acquired simply 5 bids.
The downturn has been mentioned and debated throughout the faculty basketball world. There isn’t a single clarification, however the wave of teaching retirements that hammered the convention has undoubtedly performed a task.
Lately, the ACC misplaced three Corridor of Famers: Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, North Carolina’s Roy Williams and Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim. The Blue Devils are rolling, however there was a noticeable decline with the Tar Heels and Orange.
The convention additionally misplaced Notre Dame’s Mike Brey, Virginia’s Tony Bennett and Miami’s Jim Larranaga, who have been highly-respected within the trade.
That’s a serious mind drain.
However there’s one other issue probably at play. And on the broadest stage, it impacts the Huge 12 and Huge Ten, as nicely, and displays the shifting dynamics we see in faculty soccer.
The SEC and Huge Ten merely have extra sources accessible for roster development than the ACC and Huge 12.
They’ve extra media rights income, bigger stadiums, larger budgets, extra passionate NIL collectives and the flexibility to throw money at coaches, gamers and issues.
As soon as revenue-sharing turns into the legislation of the land in faculty sports activities in 2025-26 — assuming the settlement phrases of an antitrust lawsuit are accepted subsequent month — the hole will solely widen.
Due to their huge media rights offers and the Faculty Soccer Playoff’s income distribution mannequin, a mean staff within the SEC and Huge Ten can have huge money benefits (at the least $20 million) over its counterparts within the ACC and Huge 12.
Bear in mind, roster development within the new period will take two varieties: The sharing of roughly $3 million with males’s basketball gamers, based mostly on the settlement, plus the exterior NIL {dollars} that aren’t going away.
The place to begin guard may make $500,000 from income sharing and one other $1 million from endorsing a neighborhood automotive dealership.
However the athletic division additionally has to pay the coaches and fund recruiting and journey and nutritionists and maintain amenities as much as commonplace.
The SEC and Huge Ten shall be vastly higher outfitted to help all the pieces, together with the basketball finances, than the ACC and Huge 12.
From a governance standpoint, the Faculty Soccer Playoff and NCAA Event are nothing alike. The SEC and Huge Ten have management of the previous beginning in 2026 and might manipulate the entry and format. However as a result of the NCAA runs March Insanity, the ACC and Huge 12 have extra enter — they aren’t relegated to the again seat like they’re in soccer.
On the matter of event enlargement, for instance, they are going to be closely concerned.
However in the case of mustering the sources to pay for the highest coaches and purchase essentially the most expertise, there’s a transparent division throughout the sport — a division that may turn out to be more and more apparent over the remainder of the last decade.
The ACC, which has been one of the best basketball convention over the sweep of historical past, and the Huge 12, which arguably has been one of the best over the previous six or eight years, are going through excessive challenges.
The SEC’s dominance this season isn’t a one-off. Its faculties have the money to remain on prime, arm-in-arm with the Huge Ten, whereas everybody else struggles to maintain tempo.
Is the potential for the Pac-12 so as to add groups from the American (Memphis, Tulane, and many others.) successfully lifeless after March 31, since that’s the date discover needs to be given for these faculties to get out in 2027 with $10 million exit charges? — @DonaldFarmer65
You’re referring to the American’s 27-month deadline to offer official discover of departure and pay simply $10 million in penalties. In any other case, the associated fee to go away zooms to past $25 million, in line with ESPN.
The Hotline is cautious of drawing definitive conclusions in the case of realignment. Sure, the Pac-12 wants an eighth full member by July 1, 2026, however that doesn’t essentially rule out the potential of including AAC faculties in the summertime of 2027. It may discover the eighth member elsewhere, then broaden once more. Something is possible.
That mentioned, keep in mind the 2 primary tenants of realignment: Billable hours are undefeated; and exit charges will be negotiated.
They’re all the time negotiated.
If Memphis and Tulane have been to resolve in April to hitch the Pac-12 in the summertime of 2026, for instance, that $25 million (approximate) exit charge may get negotiated down.
However we don’t count on that to occur for the straightforward cause that the Pac-12’s media rights deal, as soon as signed and sealed this spring, gained’t be profitable sufficient to justify altering conferences — at the least for the likes of Memphis and Tulane.
The common annual media rights cost for AAC faculties is about $7 million, however the longstanding members obtain bigger shares. When you assume Memphis and Tulane are gathering nearer to $9 million, the Pac-12 seemingly must provide at the least $12 million per faculty to offset the rise in journey prices and make a transfer worthwhile.
Nothing we’ve heard from trade sources suggests the Pac-12’s deal shall be value $12 million per faculty.
In our estimation, the ceiling is roughly $10 million.
Consequently, the probability of top-tier AAC faculties becoming a member of the Pac-12 is nicely under 50 %.
What may Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State truly do in protest in the event that they have been scheduled for a Friday night time sport, house or away. — @kenhagist
Earlier this week, the Hotline plunged into the weeds of the Huge Ten soccer schedule, with a deal with the Friday night time video games that pose so many aggressive and logistical challenges.
The West Coast faculties, which make up simply 22 % of the membership, stuffed 39 % of the slots final season. May that change sooner or later, or will USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington carry an outsized burden yearly.?
“Each season is its own puzzle to piece together when it comes to the Friday night inventory, so we’ll evaluate the feedback and, as always, work towards a balanced schedule for the 2025 season,” Huge Ten chief working officer Kerry Kenny defined (by way of e-mail).
One concern: Michigan’s public refusal to play on Fridays and our presumption that Ohio State and Penn State really feel the identical manner.
Let’s begin by acknowledging the potential of language within the Huge Ten’s grant-of-rights contract that blocks the convention from scheduling sure faculties for Friday competitors until they agree.
However even when that authorized framework doesn’t exist, it’s tough to check the Huge Ten forcing its prime manufacturers into any explicit broadcast window.
That merely isn’t good enterprise. Michigan and Ohio State, specifically, are liable for an enormous portion of the convention’s media worth. With worth comes clout.
In spite of everything, this isn’t the Pac-12 underneath Larry Scott, the place USC acquired primarily the identical therapy as Oregon State or Cal — a administration type that generated immense frustration on USC’s campus and contributed to the Trojans’ wandering eye.
Another level: The Huge Ten’s media companions (Fox, CBS and NBC) need Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State accessible for his or her Saturday broadcasts.
In a world through which the Wolverines have been prepared to play on Friday, the networks in all probability could be hesitant to select them for a window that, by its very nature, generates smaller audiences.
Does the Huge Ten really feel any regret for what its did to the Pac-12 athletes left behind by inviting Oregon and Washington? — @jimmy0726
Granted, that query just isn’t one which I’ve requested immediately of anybody who works for the convention or the 14 ongoing members.
However we get the distinct sense that many within the Huge Ten and throughout faculty sports activities want the Pac-12 had remained intact. There’s nuance to that, after all, as a result of the Huge Ten drove the stakes in 2022 (with USC and UCLA) and once more in 2023 (with Oregon and Washington).
However the first raid is seen because the work of former commissioner Kevin Warren, who executed the enlargement, and Fox, which funded the transfer, not anybody who at present works within the convention.
The second raid is taken into account a self-inflicted fatality, slightly than something instigated by the Huge Ten.
Poor management and horrible technique led to the untenable media rights state of affairs that left Oregon and Washington feeling like that they had no alternative however to hunt refuge. In that worldview, the Huge Ten merely answered the decision and provided salvation. There is no such thing as a lingering guilt or regret.
How lengthy till the NCAA is sued for “restraint of trade” relating to eligibility guidelines? Isn’t it collusive that transfers might solely occur yearly inside set home windows? Equally, what in regards to the student-athlete restrict for years of eligibility? Isn’t that additionally a collusive restraint of commerce as nicely? — Glenn H
That Rubicon has already been crossed. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia efficiently argued that his junior faculty season at New Mexico Navy Institute shouldn’t depend towards his eligibility clock as a result of he was not capable of obtain NIL compensation.
In response to the North Carolina-based legislation agency Poyner Spruill, the court docket decided: “… the challenged bylaws provided NCAA member schools with a competitive advantage over junior colleges, concluding the NCAA’s intercollegiate competition rules were ‘restraints on trade with substantial anticompetitive effects.’”
The Pavia case is particular to his junior faculty profession. However given the frequency of lawsuits towards the NCAA and the regularity with which the governing physique loses in court docket, it seems the bell will toll ahead of later for the eligibility clock. (See what we did there.)
Except the NCAA strikes proactively.
Granted, that technique would run counter to each determination the NCAA has made for 75 years. However there’s a motion afoot to easily grant all athletes 5 years of eligibility.
That may eradicate the necessity for waivers, that are granted inconsistently, and probably finish lawsuits associated to eligibility.
What’s the ultimate verdict on the previous Pac-12 faculty’s basketball groups and the affect of cross nation touring? — @CelestialMosh
We addressed this concern earlier within the week, within the Better of the West report, however are glad to relay the numbers.
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The 2 faculties competing within the ACC and the 4 within the Huge Ten mixed for a 12-34 file in cross-country convention matchups.
Due to the geographic breakdown of the membership, Cal and Stanford performed extra video games within the Jap and Central time zones than USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington and went 2-16. Cal’s lone victory was at NC State whereas Stanford’s breakthrough was the identical day, Jan. 18, at North Carolina.
Within the Huge Ten, the Bruins, Trojans and Huskies have been 2-5 in convention video games on the opposite aspect of the nation (together with Nebraska). Oregon was the outlier with a 4-3 mark.
The mixed file of the 4 groups when crossing a number of time zones was 10-18, with a number of very public expressions of frustration, courtesy of UCLA’s Mick Cronin and USC’s Eric Musselman.
Do you see the enrollment apocalypse rising because the strongest driver of convention realignment by 2030? Is it probably a number of Huge Ten faculties will bolt to a brand new convention with a view to be part of with AAU faculties (Affiliation of American Universities) that reside in pro-growth Atlantic states? — @TerryTerry79
Many executives in larger schooling consider a steep drop in enrollment — it’s rooted within the 2007-08 monetary disaster that trigger start charges to plunge — is simply beginning to hit universities throughout the nation.
If worry turns into a multi-year actuality, the affect on budgets could possibly be extreme. Any wallop felt by central campus may resonate throughout the athletic departments that rely upon institutional subsidies to fund operations.
The Hotline doesn’t dispute the notion that enrollment traits will create financial pressures, however would that be the first spark for the following spherical of convention realignment? Not in our view.
As a substitute, we see income sharing because the most certainly agent of change. The immense dedication wanted to compete on the highest stage — don’t be stunned if high-end soccer rosters price $30 million by the tip of the last decade — will power some faculties to ramp down their soccer applications. Others will do no matter it takes to win on the highest stage.
Consequently, a chasm will seem in the course of the FBS.
Colleges dedicated to profitable may type a brilliant league or, probably, consolidate round three conferences: Larger variations of the Huge Ten and SEC and the offspring of an ACC-Huge 12 merger.
We don’t know the result, besides that the convention construction shall be markedly totally different in eight or 10 years than it’s now.
Doomsday is coming, and the enrollment cliff may play a task.
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