The lone financial report of Shutdown 2025 was launched to nice fanfare, however don’t get used to it. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced the September Client Value Index (CPI), which was initially scheduled to be launched on Oct 15, could be launched on October 24, it additionally mentioned that “no other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services.”
The September report confirmed that the annual inflation price ticked as much as 3 p.c, primarily as a consequence of a 4.1% month-to-month enhance within the fuel index. The outcomes have been barely higher than anticipated, but it surely was nonetheless the best annual inflation price for the reason that starting of the 12 months. Tariff-impacted classes like attire, furnishings, bedding, family furnishings, and flooring are seeing costs begin to speed up.
On the providers aspect of the economic system, KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk notes that care industries topic to immigration labor shortages are “seeing prices rise more rapidly… Day care and childcare costs increased 1.7% during the month, the most since September 2023, and the third highest on record. Elder care at home jumped 7% during the month, its fastest on record. The data dates to 2006.”
You could be questioning why BLS employees have been referred to as again to compile this information amid the shutdown.
The reply is that every 12 months the Social Safety Administration (SSA) makes use of inflation information from the third quarter to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Safety (SS) recipients for the following 12 months. With the September report scorching off the presses, the SSA introduced that funds for 75 million People who obtain advantages will enhance by 2.8% in 2026.
To place that in perspective, the 2025 COLA was 2.5%; within the excessive inflation years of 2021 and 2022, the COLA was 5.9% and eight.7%, respectively; and in low inflation years like 2015 and 2016, seniors barely noticed any enhance (0.0% and 0.3%, respectively). During the last decade the COLA enhance has averaged about 3.1%.
The 2026 bump signifies that on common, Social Safety retirement advantages will enhance by about $56 per 30 days beginning in January. That won’t appear to be loads, however an additional $672 over the course of a 12 months helps, particularly for these People who’re residing on a hard and fast earnings.
There was one other notable information level that got here from the September CPI report: an adjustment to the SS Earnings Check, which applies to recipients who declare advantages BEFORE their full retirement age (age 67 for these born in or after 1960) and proceed to work.
The rule states that if you’re below full retirement age for the whole 12 months, the Social Safety Administration deducts $1 out of your profit funds for each $2 you earn above the annual restrict. For 2026, that restrict is $23,480. Within the 12 months you attain full retirement age, it’s a deduction of $1 in advantages for each $3 you earn above a unique restrict. In 2026, this restrict in your earnings is $65,160. (SSA solely counts earnings as much as the month earlier than you attain your full retirement age, not your earnings for the whole 12 months.)
The SS earnings take a look at and annual COLA underscore why for these in good well being, it often is smart to attend to assert your Social Safety profit till a minimum of your Full Retirement Age (66-67, relying on the 12 months of your start) or to age 70, when you may obtain credit for delaying submitting that may enhance retirement earnings considerably.
The upper the Social Safety profit, the extra money you can gather yearly when the COLA is introduced.
