Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District particular election should not be remotely aggressive, with President Donald Trump having received it by greater than 22% in 2024.
However Republicans have been throwing cash into the competition over the previous couple of weeks, fearing that Trump’s unpopularity mixed with the truth that it is an off-year may value the GOP the seat. Democrats are additionally spending closely, hoping to spice up Aftyn Behn and pull off what in a traditional election 12 months would appear like an unimaginable feat.
Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn campaigns forward of Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District particular election
And an Emerson School ballot launched Wednesday exhibits that Republicans have good purpose to panic. The survey exhibits that the race is a useless warmth, with Republican Matt Van Epps main Behn by simply 2 factors—49% to 47%.
Even worse for Republicans is that Behn is definitely main the race with voters who solid an early poll.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Emerson School Polling Govt Director Spencer Kimball stated. “Those that report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those that plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%.”
Emerson’s outcomes present that the race has considerably tightened since mid-October, when two public polls confirmed Van Epps main by 8% and 10%, respectively.
Whereas particular elections are notoriously troublesome to ballot, it isn’t shocking that this election is shut. Democrats have been overperforming in particular elections throughout the nation since Trump returned to workplace, on common performing 13 factors higher than they did within the 2024 presidential election.
And Trump is clearly panicking.
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” Trump wrote on X Tuesday. “You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
Republican candidate Matt Van Epps casts his poll at an early voting website in Tennessee.
If Republicans lose this seat, Home Speaker Mike Johnson shall be in a world of harm.
Because it stands, Republicans maintain simply 219 seats within the Home. If Van Epps loses, that will deliver it down to only 218—the naked minimal majority. And with GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia resigning in January, Johnson may lose the bulk earlier than the 2026 midterms even happen.
In reality, nameless Home Republicans who’re indignant that Johnson has defended Trump’s each whim as a substitute of sticking up for his personal members stated that extra GOP resignations could possibly be on the horizon.
One irate GOP lawmaker even predicted that Johnson will lose his gavel.
“It’s a tinder box,” they instructed Punchbowl Information. “Morale has by no means been decrease. Mike Johnson shall be stripped of his gavel and they’ll lose the bulk earlier than this time period is out.”
It doesn’t matter what occurs, a detailed race in Tennessee can be a horrible signal for Republicans forward of the 2026 midterms. If the GOP has to defend seats subsequent November, then they don’t seem to be simply going to lose the Home majority—they’re going to lose it massively.
We’ve definitely bought our popcorn prepared.
