Have Nottingham Forest labored out a foolproof methodology of beating the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’?
Tuesday’s 1-0 victory towards Manchester United took them to 18 factors from a attainable 30 of their head-to-head encounters with the Premier League’s historic and monetary giants thus far this season.
Of the division’s different 14 golf equipment, solely Brighton and Hove Albion can match Forest’s fee of success towards Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester Metropolis, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur this season, and crucially, these factors have put Forest into an especially robust place within the race for Champions League qualification.
However whereas Brighton typically go toe-to-toe stylistically with their extra illustrious opponents, the way wherein Forest have achieved their outcomes is much more outstanding.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s aspect not often dominate the ball — their 32 per cent common possession is the bottom of any staff in these matches. Additionally they create comparatively little — no aspect has a decrease common xG in fixtures towards the ‘Big Six’ — and so they press much less intensely than every other aspect within the division.
So how, regardless of seemingly missing the hallmarks of a profitable trendy aspect, have they executed it? Let’s break it down.
Nuno celebrates with Anthony Elanga after the victory towards Manchester United in midweek (Michael Steele/Getty Photographs)
Whereas Forest have admittedly created little in ‘Big Six’ encounters, they’ve been extremely efficient at stifling their opponents on the different finish. Amongst all video games involving ‘Big Six’ groups this season, Forest’s fixtures have the bottom common mixed xG at simply 2.3. In matches like these the place alternatives are at a premium, the opening purpose turns into all of the extra decisive — and Forest have developed a knack for putting first, scoring the opener in 24 of their 30 league matches, greater than every other aspect in 2024-25.
Their capability to restrain opposition assaults stems from a mixture of a compact form, direct strategy, and the pace of their transitions. The outcomes are a document of only one purpose conceded in 5 dwelling video games towards the ‘Big Six’ thus far this season, with simply Chelsea to come back.
Probability creation from quick breaks is a key characteristic of many ‘Big Six’ groups — 5 of the six rank within the prime six for xG from counter-attacks (Manchester Metropolis being the exception, with their extra methodical build-up). However Forest not often overcommit in possession and due to this fact discover themselves much less uncovered than most groups — proven by the actual fact they’ve conceded the second-lowest xG from quick breaks within the Premier League this season.
An enormous purpose for that’s the self-discipline of their midfield pivots — usually Elliot Anderson and Nicolas Dominguez — who have a tendency to carry their positions somewhat than making late runs into the field. Information from Footovision exhibits that the common distance between Forest’s midfield and defensive strains in these video games is simply 11.6 metres — the bottom of any staff towards ‘Big Six’ opposition.
That compactness carries over to their out-of-possession construction too, besides right here Nuno Espirito Santo usually instructs his entrance 4 to push excessive, apply strain and block passing lanes, whereas the midfield stays deeper to offer cowl.
Under is a typical instance towards Manchester Metropolis, the place the entrance 4 are engaged in disrupting their opponent’s build-up, but there’s a giant area in behind with the midfield opting to remain again and supply further safety. The space between Forest’s attacking and midfield strains is the sixth-highest within the league, proof of this outlined break up of roles: Forest’s attackers keep excessive, the remainder of the staff keep as compact as attainable.
When Metropolis do handle to play by the preliminary press, Forest retreat swiftly right into a low block, leaving solely talisman Chris Wooden forward of the ball.
This tight defensive form frustrates even the most effective sides, and so they typically resort to making an attempt low-quality probabilities from distance. The graphic under exhibits the place ‘Big Six’ groups are taking pictures from towards Forest in comparison with different opponents. Pictures from outdoors the field are extra frequent, significantly within the left channel the place the determine of 13 per cent is considerably larger than six per cent elsewhere.
Loads of left-sided makes an attempt have been on present when Manchester United got here to the Metropolis Floor this week, with Alejandro Garnacho a repeat offender.
Forest’s slender construction typically encourages switches of play, and right here Dalot efficiently finds Garnacho with a crossfield go. However because the second slide exhibits, by the point Garnacho manoeuvres himself right into a taking pictures place, Forest have our bodies again in place slicing off taking pictures angles, and the Argentinian winger fires a wayward effort into the stands.
This defensive self-discipline isn’t simply reserved for the large events — it’s one thing Forest have improved throughout the board. The typical distance of pictures confronted has elevated every season, and the soar this marketing campaign is especially notable.
However Nottingham Forest’s spectacular factors haul hasn’t come solely from a disciplined defensive setup — they’ve additionally wanted their forwards to ship on the different finish.
Earlier than Forest’s 1-0 dwelling win over Manchester Metropolis, Pep Guardiola described Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Wooden, and Morgan Gibbs-White as “exceptional players.” That evaluation proved prophetic when Hudson-Odoi netted a late winner for Forest.
Hudson-Odoi scores towards Manchester Metropolis in March 2025 (Shaun Botterill/Getty Photographs)
Every of Forest’s attacking quartet brings one thing totally different to the desk, however their ability units complement one another successfully to offer an important artistic edge — significantly throughout attacking transitions, which have been a constant supply of objectives towards ‘Big Six’ opposition.
Though Forest typically discover themselves outnumbered after they break resulting from their defensive priorities, they constantly punch above their weight due to Elanga and Hudson-Odoi’s ball-carrying menace, Gibbs-White’s creativity, and Wooden’s medical ending.
This counter-attacking prowess was on full show throughout Forest’s 1-0 win at Anfield earlier within the season — their first there since 1969. The successful purpose started deep in their very own half, the place Forest regained possession earlier than Gibbs-White picked out Elanga with a wise around-the-corner go into the appropriate channel.
Elanga then surged ahead and delivered a pinpoint cross-field ball to Hudson-Odoi on the alternative flank, who minimize inside and curled a composed end past Alisson.
Trademark Callum Hudson-Odoi 🤌
Our successful purpose at Anfield 😍 pic.twitter.com/bfYzP75kbI
Hudson-Odoi’s medical strike got here from a low-percentage alternative, and it might be remiss to not acknowledge the function of fortune in Forest’s season.
They’ve scored 50 objectives from an anticipated objectives tally of simply 38 — the most important over-performance within the division. Whereas constantly taking the lead speaks to their high quality, doing in order ceaselessly as they’ve additionally allows them to execute their sport plan extra successfully, sustaining that compact form somewhat than being compelled to chase video games.
Nonetheless, Forest have earned their share of excellent fortune this season. Their standout performances towards the league’s most established sides have showcased the qualities that justify their lofty place within the desk.
Nuno’s staff might not play like a contemporary tremendous membership — however when going through groups that do, they’ve constantly discovered a solution to thrive.
(High picture: David Rogers/Getty Photographs)
