The sweat was actual in Week 5. In all, there have been six double-digit comebacks all through the slate and, regardless of that insanity, we had been in a position to energy via for probably the most half with an 8-6 ATS report. Sure, we had been on the dropping finish of 49ers-Rams and Broncos-Eagles, however we had been on the suitable facet of Bucs-Seahawks. We had been additionally useless on with the Jaguars holding it shut towards Kansas Metropolis, they usually even pulled off the outright win.
These picks, together with just a few others, helped us get again to a extra respectable report, notably with my 5 locks of the week, which went 3-2 ATS in Week 5. Whereas that’s worthwhile, we will do significantly better than that. I’ll look to money much more tickets in Week 6, the place I’ve two highway underdogs pulling off the outright wins inside my 5 locks.
Groups on the bye in Week 5: Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans
2025 report
Locks of the Week ATS: 13-12-0ATS: 36-42-0ML: 47-30-1
NFL odds by way of DraftKings (until in any other case famous). Wager NFL Week 5 video games and NFL odds at DraftKings, the place new customers get $200 in bonus bets with a successful $5 wager.
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, strive at no cost)
We rode with the Jaguars in Week 5, and now we’re going to fade them every week later. Whereas Jacksonville is without doubt one of the extra shocking tales of the 2025 season to this point with a 4-1 report, I nonetheless have loads of questions on them, notably surrounding Trevor Lawrence. He’s twenty fourth amongst 33 certified quarterbacks this season in EPA per dropback, and largely did his injury on Monday night time together with his legs. The passing left little to be desired outdoors of a few late throws to drag off the upset. The Jags are one of many prime speeding offenses within the NFL, however that performs right into a key energy of the Seahawks. Seattle is giving up 3.3 yards per carry this season, which is second-best within the NFL. If that continues they usually plug up the operating lanes for Jacksonville, Lawrence’s passing deficiencies might be uncovered.
Additionally, let’s not ignore the great season that Sam Darnold is placing collectively for the Seahawks. Remarkably, his completion proportion and passer ranking are even higher than what he produced final season with the Vikings. I believe he leads Seattle into Duval County and leaves with an outright win.
Projected rating: Seahawks 27, Jaguars 23The choose: Seahawks +1.5
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC | Fubo, strive at no cost)
The Chiefs will in all probability determine it out by the point the common season involves an finish, and can once more appear to be a Tremendous Bowl contender, however I don’t see it proper now. They’re unable to hold with even fringe playoff contenders with their two victories on the yr coming towards the New York Giants and an injury-filled Baltimore Ravens squad. When the video games are shut, they’ve fallen flat, proudly owning a 0-3 report in one-score video games this season. With this unfold sitting at Chiefs -2.5, I believe we’ll see extra of the identical. I’ve a tough time imagining this present model of the Chiefs offense maintaining with the Lions, who’re averaging 34.8 factors per sport (most within the NFL). Dan Campbell’s workforce comes into Arrowhead Stadium with a 10-1 report on the highway courting again to the beginning of final season. This might be one other stellar exhibiting from Detroit’s backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs as they sq. off towards a Chiefs run protection that’s giving up 4.8 yards per carry (tied for fifth-highest within the NFL).
Projected rating: Lions 30, Chiefs 23The choose: Lions +2.5
Monday, 7:15 p.m. (ESPN | Fubo, strive at no cost)
Buffalo bought in its personal manner towards the Patriots on Sunday night time, turning the ball over thrice and committing 11 penalties. I’m unsure that occurs two weeks in a row. The Payments have additionally responded effectively following defeats as they’re 4-1 each straight up and towards the unfold of their final 5 video games after a loss. Buffalo nonetheless is averaging 30.6 factors per sport and 395.8 whole yards per sport this season, which rank third within the NFL. Regardless of the top-tier weapons at his disposal, I nonetheless have my doubts about Michael Penix Jr. and his potential to go toe to toe with Josh Allen.
Projected rating: Payments 33, Falcons 24The choose: Payments -4.5
Pete Prisco’s Week 6 NFL picks: Determined Chiefs win shootout vs. Lions, slumping Chargers upset by Dolphins
Pete Prisco
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. (NFL Community | Fubo, strive at no cost)
I’ve been excessive on Denver courting to the offseason, so I’m delighted that they’re lastly beginning to appear to be themselves. They’ll look to hold the momentum from their comeback win over the Eagles in Week 5 throughout the pond to London, the place they’ll tackle the New York Jets. This needs to be a lopsided matchup with New York nonetheless winless in 2025.
One of many extra shocking components of the Jets poor begin to the season is that they’ve but to report a single turnover, which is blasphemous for an Aaron Glenn-led workforce. If that continues, Bo Nix and the Broncos offense shouldn’t have any downside moving into the top zone a minimum of thrice. In the event that they do, that might nearly robotically safe them the win. In his profession, Justin Fields is 0-26 when his opponent scores 21 or extra factors. For reference, Denver is averaging 23.4 factors per sport.
In the meantime, favorites of seven or extra factors are 8-2 ATS all time in worldwide video games, in order that’s one other feather in our cap right here.
Projected rating: Broncos 27, Jets 17The choose: Broncos -7.5
Projected rating: Steelers 24, Browns 16The choose: Steelers -5.5
Odds by way of BetMGM, the place you may rise up to $1,500 again in bonus bets in case your first soccer wager loses.
Remainder of the bunch
Eagles at Giants (Thursday)Projected rating: Eagles 24, Giants 17The choose: Giants +7.5
Cardinals at ColtsProjected rating: Colts 30, Cardinals 21The choose: Colts -6.5
Chargers at DolphinsProjected rating: Chargers 27, Dolphins 20The choose: Chargers -4.5
Patriots at SaintsProjected rating: Patriots 24, Saints 23The choose: Saints +3
Cowboys at PanthersProjected rating: Cowboys 33, Panthers 23The choose: Cowboys -3.5
Rams at RavensProjected rating: Rams 30, Ravens 20The choose: Rams -7.5
Titans at RaidersProjected rating: Raiders 24, Titans 20The choose: Titans +4.5
Bengals at PackersProjected rating: Packers 30, Bengals 20The choose: Bengals +14.5
49ers at BuccaneersProjected rating: Buccaneers 23, 49ers 21The choose: 49ers +3
Bears at Commanders (Monday)Projected rating: Commanders 28, Bears 23The choose: Commanders -4.5
